river raise with 99

Give your thoughtprocess please.

it dipends a lot of how you defend your checking range.

But I think in this line a really big sizing on the river should be always better than yours. We do not represent a lot.
Then, maybe it's bad to bluff this hand, maybe to high in your range but again it depends en how you play your range.

If you think that you have a good blocker effect, it is not true because J9 should be often (to not say every time) bet on the flop.

Originally posted by nitrol
Give your thought process please.

+1 and it’s also good to know any information of this player.
Now your line seems optimistic for sure. Especially the river check/raise.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I think villain doesn't represent alot of value hands. Qx is probably betting the flop, maybe even Tx. He could have 88. So OTR he looks polarized. He either has 88/Tx or he has something like 76s-54s, 75s-64s. So I wouldn't bluff check/raise because nothing better will fold, expecially not vs a minraise. I would rather call. I also think that check/folding is better than check/raising in this spot.

I think that Tx is completely possible and after flop we should not invest more.

I think maybe this play with 99 can be ok to balance your range on the river if you would play AT like this and value raise on the river, maybe even trap with some sets on the flop or with QT.I would use a bigger size OTR.

You are offering him 19.97:5.15 or about 4:1. Someone playing GTO will fold 50% (which is what you need for BE), but 99/100 players will be tempted by pot odds.

As far as hand reading goes, I don't exclude very much from his range. For one thing, a wise player will slowplay many good hits on the theory that a bet after a missed c-bet has auto-profit (which he doesn't want with nuts). Playing mediocre hands slowly isn't a bad idea on his part either since it keeps the pot small and it keeps you in the dark. The best hand for him to bet on the flop is air and straight draws like J9 (now he wants that auto-profit, or if not, at least build the pot for a possible straight).

I would bet Ott myself. As played I think this hand is a good candidate to cc two streets. Villain usually bets qx otf and TX is not likely sinice there are two on the board. Additionaly se block j9. Thd way I se it its ideal hand to bluff catch?

On the contrary on blinds ppl have diff strategie so villain might actually c his qx otf. Am i right?