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Two pair facing agression OTF

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Dre4mBl00d
Joined: 28.10.2016

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 90.5 BB (VPIP: 32.99, PFR: 29.38, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 202)
SB: 106 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 159 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♠ Q♠

Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) Q♥ 3♦ 8♣
SB checks, Hero bets 6.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 19 BB, Hero ??

Hi guys!
Villan is unknown and i'm only afraid about 33... is it correct to play for stacks in this spot?


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13 replies
Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

Yes, it is ok to stack off on the flop with top two pairs on this board.

On a side note, opening Q8s from CO on 2 NL is kinda loose and is probably going to lose you money.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

I would call since you have position here. SB calls preflop, which means he mostly has a pretty strong range..


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Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

Well, there are 4 combos that beat us and we much prefer to stack on the flop since there are no turn and river cards that are good for us. Avoid having to make difficult decisions and 3bet/call the flop.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

In a 4-handed game, it’s indeed a loose open or all players are tight, but based on the stats we have it isn’t likely at all. On this flop, I would most likely go broke with it. You are blocking 2 set combos’ and I wouldn’t be surprised that a random NL2 player can overplay some weaker hands like top pair.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

What are you guys talking about :wtf:
Since it is a 4 handed game, we open looser, not tighter than in 6max. We can take out 2 first positions and consider hero to be CO -> Q8s is imo a decent open. I personally draw the line to Q7s.

Also the board is so dry and we block sets. I don't think we have to stack off here. That will only scare villain away. If villain has an overpair or AQ for example, he has very small chance to improve. We can let him do the betting.

So, 1) there is a chance that we are already behind 2) villains weaker made hands rarely improve 3) we can get it all in by the river anyway.
These facts imo speak for just calling.


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Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

Well, since villain almost never has bluffs in this spot and since plenty of cards either kill the action or make our hand worse, why bother calling when clearly u have a perfectly good 3bet/call ? I would argue that calling here has actually lower +EV than 3betting.

Opening Q8s-Q7s from CO on micros is asking for trouble. Run a filter from your database and let us know the results.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Hmm.. I am still not convinced why we should raise flop here. 2 Critical questions remain here.

If called, to what hands will we isolate ourselves with?
If villain folds, why do we want to let villain fold his hand?

Maybe a nice way to look at this is; what hands do we want villain to fold with the raise OTF?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Since he rarely has a bluff in this spot and not many cards kill the action, why raise?
We are way ahead/way behind. Sets are still possible. If villain has a weaker made hand, he has a 2 outer. If he happens to bluff, lets let him bluff.
If we can get the money in anyway, it is correct to keep villains range as wide as possible. Isn't it better to call it down and still be all-in while knowing he might have bluffed or overplayed his overpairs VS if we ship it OTF and make sure he folds all of his possible bluffs and might even be able to give up his QQ?

I checked this with Snowie and it would also just call.

Spoiler

What comes to opening Q8s and Q7s.. I have seen many coaches open those. For example w34z3l and Janda have those in their opening ranges from CO. PokerSnowie will also open those.
As you requested, I filtered my database.
Q8s - +63bb (142 hands)
Q7s - +2bb (162 hands)

Ofc it would require almost millions of hands to get accurate winrate for a specific hand on a specific position.. But I wouldn't say I'm losing too much money with those.


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TurokRider
Joined: 21.10.2011

I would have no problem at all, to shove here. So many people will call with Qx, KK, AA, worse 2pair, even JJ or TT

I do agree calling is prob best and let him do the betting OTT, but I would deffo shove when that happens.
I wouldn't wait for the river to get the money in. People rarely shoot 3 bullets with a weaker hand.


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Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

Any ace or kind can both improve his hand and kill any further action. That is roughly 16% of the time. I personally think he does not raise/fold more often than that as it would require him to be quite bluff heavy and that is just not likely to be true with no reads or statistics. This is WAWB situation only strictly theoretically speaking as the part of his value range that defeats us (4 combos) is like maybe 2-3% of his range here, which includes all Qx holdings (like a million combos) and speculatively some bluffs like A8/A3/JT/J9. Snowie practically makes no difference between calling and raising but what is important is that it does not account for the fact you playing the absolutely lowest limits possible where betting and raising with big hands is almost always the most + EV option.

Good that u r making profit with those hands , but the sample is small indeed. Weazel does not play micros and on higher levels such hands become important part of your range for reasons other than pure equity. That is also taken into consideration in Snowie ranges. Applying Snowie to micros is imho dangerous and can lead to huge misunderstandings for beginner players as they lack the foundations to comprehend most estimations and situations.

Also, as someone mentioned somewhere, "Fu ck Snowie and use your own brain" :)


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Any ace or kind can both improve his hand and kill any further action.

If he slowplayed KK+ preflop (which isn't likely) he still would have only a 2 outer. That means he hits very rarely and we shouldn't bother ourselves with that. With KQ and AQ he has 3 outer, so again not so dangerous. Also we block any Qx. I think it is quite indisputable fact that villains weaker made hands do not have so much equity we should be too worried about that.

I personally think he does not raise/fold more often than that

He can have some bluffs. He can be raising with an overpair. Flop 3bet is so so strong that a good villain could be able to fold his overpairs. Also it can be discussed whether he has many overpairs in his range in the first place. So if he doesn't have many overpairs nor does he have many bluffs, it leaves sets that beat us.

This is WAWB situation only strictly theoretically speaking as the part of his value range that defeats us (4 combos) is like maybe 2-3% of his range here, which includes all Qx holdings (like a million combos) and speculatively some bluffs like A8/A3/JT/J9.

Do you really think he would be raising with any Qx? And btw sets are 5 combos.
I don't think he should be raising any top pairs and he should not have many overpairs as those will 3bet pre. If he has 5 combos of sets, about as many strong draws as a bluff and then maybe some random overpairs, I would say we are WAWB.

What you say about Snowie is true. Exploitative lines are most often better at the micros. But I still think Snowie is a great tool to help players to develop their thinking.
Weazel's ranges that I use are specifically designed for the micros.

But eventually the question is what are the pros and cons of raising and going broke already OTF.
If we raise, we get it all-in quickly. At the same time we force him to fold all of his bluffs and he might be able to fold some slowplayed overpairs too. In case he doesn't raise with balanced range and is very tight with his raises, we are only donating money to his sets.
If we call, we can still get it all-in by the river but we manage to keep his range wider. Only risk is that we let him hit his 2 or 3 outer. And that I don't think is a mistake.


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ovatsuG21
Joined: 03.05.2009

IMO Q8s is a standart raise on CO.

About the flop play. If i had any info that villain is some kind of fish i would stack off but since the only info we have is that SB is a full stacked player, so i rather call and let him with a few bluffs on his range (maybe T9s, JTs and J9s with bd fd play this way) since board is dry.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I think I prefer calling on this dry flop. He can have some funky staff and don't mind keeping it in his range.


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