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Tough spot on turn with overcards and fl/dr - WHAT'S YOUR LINE HERE?

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Jaunais
Joined: 24.01.2014

Hey all!

Yesterday i faced an interesting spot where i would love to hear you thoughts about the hand and lines you would take!
Opp is sort of fishy, has 660hands with stats 25/18/8 CC versus EP open = 8%

I dont think there is value at all by cbeting such board so X flop is a play for me here but on turn I add some equity and i can make a delayed cbet or x/call x/raise here as he also should have marginal holdings where i believe all nutted hands he must bet on flop.
Keep in mind he has 23bb eff before hand and after turn bet he has 17bb left in stack.

Outcome:

Spoiler


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7 replies
Kinghu
Joined: 27.09.2016

I'd call and bet river, you haven't shown any strength so after 2 checks he may be putting in a bet to steal the pot.


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Jaunais
Joined: 24.01.2014

bet river? on all runouts?


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Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

What is the plan when u check that flop ?


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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

Why not just call the turn. If you are analysing his range right, you should easily have the odds to call and play a river. X/r turn is not necessary, imo. You do not really know what range he is stabbing turn with and what your FE is.


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msmozzarella
Joined: 14.03.2017

I feel that if you´re going to play KQo from EP, you should feel very comfortable playing a marginal holding OOP. I know I don't so I would just fold pre. You say that your impression is that MP is fishy, so your fold equity is probably on the low side. As played I would call turn and give up anything but a flush or TP.


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Jaunais
Joined: 24.01.2014

Because i believe his holdings are weak! All fl/dr will bet flop if we check, all sets/top pairs must bet also!


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

His stats looks not that fishy to me. His gap between VPIP and PFR is a little bit high, but further he looks like a TAG kind of player.

The flop I would consider to make a bluff Cbet, but checking for pot control seems fine as well. As played we are drawing for the 2nd nut flush and it’s difficult to represent a flush I think with betting. If you had a flush you had most likely bet the flop as well. I will try to try to hit our flush as cheap as possible and I would check/call the turn. Check/folding seems to tight and check raising is changing you hand in a bluff and then you need to fold on a shove. That’s over playing this hand I think.

If we don’t hit our hand on the river I would give up and otherwise I would always check to the aggressor.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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