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$5 9 Man Turbo TT bubble

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kivanov1989
Joined: 14.01.2017

partypoker - 100/200 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 11.55 BB (VPIP: 20.62, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 8.02, Hands: 686)
CO: 24.13 BB (VPIP: 57.89, PFR: 31.58, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 19)
Hero (BTN): 42.58 BB
SB: 6.05 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 5.66, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 55)
BB: 5.7 BB (VPIP: 13.13, PFR: 11.61, 3Bet Preflop: 2.63, Hands: 301)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♠ T♣

fold, CO raises to 3.5 BB, Hero raises to 42.58 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, CO calls 20.63 BB and is all-in

Flop: (49.75 BB, 2 players) Q♠ J♣ A♦

Turn: (49.75 BB, 2 players) 9♦

River: (49.75 BB, 2 players) 3♦

I give a villain strong range but I can exclude AA,KK from his range when raising that big. AK was the most sensible holding with that big of a raise. TT is very bottom of my range , but should I go AI with JJ+ ?


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9 replies
msmozzarella
Joined: 14.03.2017

Why do you think his range is strong? His pfr is <30% over 19 hands, so I think you can shove much wider, escpecially considering there are only 5 players left, two of which are very short. He should be calling with like QQ+, AK only. I say if you get called by a stonger hand, it's a cooler.


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JKV89
Joined: 05.03.2017

Small raise and dont risk it. Let that bubble burst first


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vlzvl
Joined: 17.03.2014

I believe you have lots of fold equity here, based on the number of shorter stacks.
In addition, CO is raising pretty wide for a 9-man and he seems like a maniac, based on both VP/PFR/3B. on a small sample though. Why do you give a 58/32 a strong range, especially from CO?
Your TT are premium to his mostly 2 high cards. I like your shove.
I don't like a call or even 3-bet here, this dude's a maniac and certainly i don't like to play a board with at least 1 higher card against him.
With the combination of this particular player, the distribution of stacks and your hand i would consider shoving here as well.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Technical speaking, we aren’t on the bubble yet with 5 players still in it or they have on PartyPoker another paid out structure then I know about.

I would most likely shove as well with TT, but beware that it’s possible the CO isn’t aware of ICM what we do and he could easily call wider then he should and I wouldn’t go much wider then TT. Especially with the big raise of him or he’s always 3,5x raising so far.

Originally posted by JKV89
Small raise and dont risk it. Let that bubble burst first

Don’t forget we are the chip leader and if we are 3betting we are committed if he’s shoving.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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kivanov1989
Joined: 14.01.2017

My bad - it is not a bubble, his sizing for me is a tell for a strong holding - not his stats. TT is bottom of my shoving range here , I don't want to risk not being chip leader on the bubble later. It might be nitty but - no fold equity in the spot and his bigger raise is a good reason to be tight.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

The CO should fold a lot in this spot. Without checking any tool I wouldn’t be surprised he can only call with QQ+ in a spot like this, but I’m sure he wouldn’t call that tight.


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Okkernootje
Joined: 02.09.2013

I think we are leveling ourselves by shoving this deep against a player that is probably not a good player (stats, 3,5x) and doesn't understand ICM.

Would hate it when villain calls something stupid like AQo or KQs here and we splat our equity all over the table.


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kivanov1989
Joined: 14.01.2017

Originally posted by Okkernootje
I think we are leveling ourselves by shoving this deep against a player that is probably not a good player (stats, 3,5x) and doesn't understand ICM.

Would hate it when villain calls something stupid like AQo or KQs here and we splat our equity all over the table.

That is my point when saying that TT will be the absolute bottom of my 3bet/Shove range in the spot against that opponent. He held AKo, which I guess is a good call on his part.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

With ICM in mind is AK even a hand he should fold I think as 2nd in chips with 3 stacks that are a lot shorter than he is. He has most likely more than 60% equity needed to make a call like this profitable against our range.


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