Originally posted by YohanN7
Originally posted by ovatsuG21
Originally posted by YohanN7
Originally posted by ovatsuG21
I can't understand why the majority of you guys consider raising a bad play?
Look at the turn betsize and at the board. All combos of AcQx / AxQc / AcJx / AxJc will underbet and call a raise OTT.We read hands very differently. You are up against a UTG open range. UTG knows that you know that you are up against a UTG open range. That is to say, ranges are strong. When ranges are strong, you need a very strong hand to raise for value. Remember you need to be a favorite against his calling range (which, by the way, contains no hand with only a pair unless A♣: is part of it). His small bets aren't evidence enough of both the conclusions that he is weak and will call a raise.
(1) So UTG has no AJ or AQ in his range? (2) His range is kinda polarized, that low bet is either a solid made hand like a made flush or a mid strength hand like the hand i said before.
(3) Sets would never underbet in that board, i think even AK wouldn't underbet it and mid strenght with clubs/gutshot will call a raise OTT.
(4) I'm not saying that calling is way wrong but i clearly see raising a +EV play, even thought it has some more variance in it.(5) The main problem in hero's play was the river call on a brick vs a strong donk.
(I numbered a couple of statements in the quote. Hope you don't mind.)
(1): AJ is not part of a typical UTG open range. AQ is. AQ can be played bet flop, and bet small turn (stop bet). It can also be checked behind due to the scary board. There is, however, no value in betting AQ for villain. Its value lies in catching river bluffs (on part of you, which is the rationale for a check) and the equity in the present pot (which is the rationale for betting small if he is afraid of a big river bluff on part of you that he would fold to - i.e. a stopping bet).
Thus he is very rarely going to call a raise with a hand you can beat.
(2): Polarized usually means weak or strong, not in the middle.
(3): I agree that sets and top two should bet bigger.
(4): No matter how you read his range (slightly different from me, I say no AJ and only a few AQ), he isn't often going to call a raise with AQ/AJ. The raise has (and here we differ profoundly in opinion) decidedly negative EV.
(5): It isn't a donk. The HH is screwed up. Hero is in BB and villain is UTG. I'd say if you actually are convinced that villain is weak, and willing to call raises on the turn with trash, then stay with your conviction and call that river bet. Such a villain is capable of bluffing on a river blank. I personally would only check-call turn and check-call a reasonable river bet, but not a big one.
First of all i don't know if i sound agressive sometimes but i respect your hand analysis in these forums even though i disagree with some of your points. 
My hand analysis was based on hero being IP but now i see that the hand wasn't converted in standart mode.
Being OOP It really makes no sense on raising. About your points:
1- I disagree about AJ not being in a typical UTG open range. It may not be in a NIT regular range but the standart open raise is AJo+ and ATs+.
2- I used polarized in this particular hand because the middle is actually weak but it's not trash so yeah the word i used didn't suit very well here lol
4 - If we were IP and villain had AQ or AJ with a club I doubt that he would fold against a 2,5x-3x raise. Being OOP i agree that it definitelly less EV than calling.
5 - I'm assuming villain is a full stacked completely uknown. I use to assume a standart regular range in this case, in which case AJo and AQo fits. Of course if we had more infos on villain our thinking process and line would be much different.
Now if hero was IP and we suppose villain did the same underbet, how would you play the turn?
