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Top Two on wet board

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Dre4mBl00d
Joined: 28.10.2016

iPoker - €0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 105.75 BB (VPIP: 41.58, PFR: 6.93, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 103)
UTG: 140 BB (VPIP: 52.17, PFR: 29.82, 3Bet Preflop: 8.51, Hands: 115)
MP: 93.25 BB (VPIP: 76.47, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
CO: 25 BB (VPIP: 60.56, PFR: 15.83, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 365)
Hero (BTN): 203 BB
SB: 172 BB (VPIP: 28.25, PFR: 22.29, 3Bet Preflop: 8.36, Hands: 1,034)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has K♠ A♦

UTG raises to 2 BB, MP calls 2 BB, CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 8 BB, fold

Flop: (25.5 BB, 2 players) K♥ 8♣ A♣
MP checks, Hero bets 17.75 BB, MP calls 17.75 BB

Turn: (61 BB, 2 players) J♦
MP checks, Hero ???

I don't know what to do OTT.
PF: i made that 3bet to collect dead money or thin the field to play HU with original raiser
FLOP: for me this flop is wet and i need to protect my against FD , broadways par+draw with him can call me. What do you think about the size here? Is it good?
OTT: BAH! i don't know what to do because if i bet like 1/2 i'm committed , if i check maybe i lose value. I'm behind of sets and QT.
What do you think in this situation?

Thanks! :f_drink:


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6 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

The Cbet sizing seems fine, but against a fish like him I would bet more. If you bet 22bb or more you can shove less then pot size on the turn. That would make it a lot easier on the turn for you.

Now it’s nasty you have a little bit more than a pot size bet left and I expect you get still a lot of value with betting, but if he shoves you need to call for sure with this stack dynamic. I would make around half pot bet now and call if he’s shoving. If he’s a complete calling station you can even consider to over shove here and even based on these stats it’s still a move you can consider here.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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MetalistULTRAS
Joined: 07.08.2009

Given his stats (even based on just few hands), he is a real calling station. He can has anything here :)

Sets. 8 combos: there is only 1 combo of AA and KK for him having a set (as you block A and K), and 3 combos for both 88 and JJ.
Straight. 16 combos of QT.
It's just 24 combos in total out of hundreds that are in his preflop call range (76% VPIP out of 1326 possible preflop combos).
These are the only hands that beat you. And the fact that he doesn't show any aggression on flop and turn should make you comfortable about you having a better hand. When you bet, you not only getting value from a lot of his pairs (or wors 2-pair hands), but also protecting against flush draws and lots of straight draws (any Qx, Tx, T9, 97, 7x.....).
So I would easily bet the turn, 2/3 pot at least, and call if he raises for few more chips


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MetalistULTRAS
Joined: 07.08.2009

sorry for the second message
moderators, how do i delete a post, please?


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Best is to probably bet OTT. We cannot state too much about villain but although the turn card completes a SD, there are enough hands that we beat (all pairs, draws, some 2p and pp).


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Sunrise1912
Joined: 24.11.2009

easiest turn bet ever. Doesnt matter if you slightly overbet ship or bet 1/2 and jam the river. I prefer directly shipping so he cna call with his FD, gutters, etc.

Some river cards might kill the action which lean towards jamming the turn.


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Pajod
Joined: 05.08.2008

Bet more on the flop so you dont have to overbet ott.
As played I prefer shoving. That guy looks like a huge whale and he's gonna call you with shit load of worse hands.


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