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Bottom set facing donk / 4bet on flop

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KittBizi
Joined: 17.11.2008

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($29.05) 116bb
UTG+1 Player5 ($25) 100bb
CO Player6 ($34.76) 139bb
BTN Player1 ($26.11) 104bb
SB Player2 ($60.44) 242bb
BB Player3 ($52.39) 210bb

Pre-Flop: (0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG J♥: J♠:
Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Player1 calls $0.75, Player2 calls $0.65, 1 fold
Flop: A♦: J♣: Q♠: ($2.50, 3 players)

Player2 bets $1.80, Hero raises to $5, Player1 folds, Player2 raises to $12.30, Hero ????

Wasn't sure what to do here. Is it a mistake to go broke on this flop vs this type of play?
He could have AA or QQ but I think he would have raised these hands PF
So either he has AJ, QJ, AQ but not sure he would play the flop with those hands in the way he did + I block alot of Jx combos.
Only plausible hand that beats me would be KT but not sure if you can fold here since there are more combos that I beat...

Any suggestions for best lines to take here?
Thanks


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9 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

You have a set, villain probably would 3bet pre with QQ+. Maybe.

I think I would just stack off here. He can have 2pair hands or something like AK with backdoor flush draw.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I would disagree with la55i and say that we can fold. Sb isnt calling pre with qq, aa. He isnt also calling with ajo, aqo. He might call with aqs ajs. That leaves no aj and aq of hearts and aq of clubs. I dont believe he plays ak this way, its still mw pot and ppl tend to be tighter there. He can easily call kts preflop. Either way, donking otf makes no sense, which makes opp a fish. Having said that, its much harder, but i still dont see enough of hands we beat in his range. I would really say hes got kt here.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

And I have to disagree just a little bit with that :f_biggrin:
I would say SBvUTG villain would call with AQo too. AJ is closer to a fold, but if villain looks fishy I think that could be in his range. At least AJ should be a lot more likely than KT since KT is a clear fold for me. We can't 100% rule out that he could do this with something stupid like TT, KQ.

The point is, we can't put him on straights only. And if he has a straight, we still have some equity.

When I get home I'll try to put him on a reasonable range and try to calculate the EV of shove here.


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robstars7
Joined: 23.05.2012

I think its too tight to fold here, villain can have worse hands in his range, he can have worse 2 pairs and even if he has k10o.

Do you have any read of villains style? could he do this being aggro with pair +draw ?

Your a 61% fav vs QQ,AQs-AJs,KTs,AQo-AJo ... dont see him flatting AA in this spot ever and k10o would be unlikely. QQ could be possible considering some players wouldnt 3 bet because your utg.

I would shove here or even call and call any turn card .


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

You are right guys, I was wrong. I don´t call AQo, Ajo in SB vs 2 players myself, so I based my post on my ranges, but ppl can actually call AQo there. He might be having even some QQ, even though again, I wouldn´t like calling them. Anyways, now I agree, we should ship it, his donk still makes no sense (=fishy move), so let´s go for it.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Fold.

Reason: No-one value reraises with worse. In the rare occasion someone is wise enough to bluff, it takes some stones on his part because he can have very few outs if you call. People don't have the stones to play nearly balanced here. And remember, "balanced" may be to mix in like 2% bluffs or less because the board hit you hard, and you raised on a 3-handed flop (after raising preflop UTG).


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AnXfile378
Joined: 20.07.2017

So the biggest fear is be has AA, KK, QQ or KT..

Of course he never raises you pre-flop. He could just call since you raised for him but if he has AA he definitely raises, so I think AA is out of the question.

QQ is still an option and with you already raising a call makes sense. I really think the perception of QQ isn't like AA or KK

So then there is KTs, which is also possible.

So basically you want to see an A or junk on the Turn or the River I think so you can get a full house... That's the only thing that can save you under the assumption he has you beat with Queens or a straight.

I really don't see this raise with AQ unless he is trying to get you to fold in which case you would also be screwed if an A comes out. You will think you win with a Full House Jack over Aces and he wins Aces over Queens

So at the end of the day as much as it sucks, I think it's a fold since really your only out here seems to be an ACE if he doesn't have AQ...


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bodycheck
Joined: 09.09.2012

I dont raise flop - the donk seems strong and I dont see lot of value in raise. Rather keep third player in pot and keep worse hands in sb range.

As played its not possible to fold due pot dds - vs KT we have lot of equity.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Oops, yes, I misread that in OP. We are clearly beat every day, but pot odds may dictate a call. Get down on your knees an pray he has a straight and call. (The other option is that he has AA or QQ. You don't want that because you'll be drawing dead to a J.)


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