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Anybody out there would have seen this coming?

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pdfbq
Joined: 23.05.2008

Does opp play well?

I Wanted to defend my AQ suited. Reason: I can not fold everything except KK++ or I will be eaten out there.
Reason I checked is because I wanted to let him hang himself.

I did put him on AK AQ KK QQ KQ JJ TT -> 22 and suited connectors (or possible set which I thought screw it).
I would have folded a bet on the river without the Q by the way.

Should I have folded here with the Q?

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.03, PFR: 14.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)
Hero (CO): 145 BB
BTN: 103 BB (VPIP: 16.00, PFR: 8.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 26)
SB: 108.5 BB (VPIP: 16.39, PFR: 13.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 66)
BB: 165 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)
UTG: 217.5 BB (VPIP: 61.02, PFR: 8.47, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 61)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ Q♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 4♣ 9♦ A♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 12.5 BB, Hero calls 12.5 BB

Turn: (44.5 BB, 2 players) 6♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 28.5 BB, Hero calls 28.5 BB

River: (101.5 BB, 2 players) Q♥

Hero checks, BTN bets 52 BB, Hero raises to 95 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 1 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

Hero shows A♣ Q♣ (Two Pair, Aces and Queens)
(Pre 63%, Flop 92%, Turn 80%)
BTN shows J♥ 8♥ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 37%, Flop 8%, Turn 20%)
BTN wins 200 BB


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7 replies
Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

Maybe better to just check/call the river in this spot as it is really hard to get called by worse hands. Even hands like A9s/A6s/A4s will find it hard to call that river raise. Since we have no information about the player I would mostly just call when the backdoor flush draw completes.


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pdfbq
Joined: 23.05.2008

Ah. sorry.. its a bit misleading. I check called the river. My 'all in' here was for his last 1BB.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by Fanko
Maybe better to just check/call the river in this spot as it is really hard to get called by worse hands. Even hands like A9s/A6s/A4s will find it hard to call that river raise. Since we have no information about the player I would mostly just call when the backdoor flush draw completes.

In this case shoving or calling makes not too much different with only 1bb effective left if we call.

Off course we are playing against a nit on a low sample and I think we need to fold most turns against his 2nd barrel range. We only beat a bluff here.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

My bad for not seeing the stack size properly. Of course we get it in for that so important 1BB. However, if deeper stacks, i would most certainly avoid raising vs unknown villain. We have 26 hands history and i just cannot justify folding CO vs BTN in this spot with no additional info.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

No that hard to get called by a TPTK, bearing in mind that's exactly what is in his range


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Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

Must be really optimistic about our bluff range to call AK on that board.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain can have AK or weaker 2 pair. You improve to top 2 OTR and face only a half pot bet. I think this was well played.


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