Line check KQ ui vs whale

What range do you give villian @ the turn before the ur check?
What you think it is after his bet ?
Do you have some informations about the flop-play about him like fold-to-cbet?
Did you checked out how big he bets OTF/OTT because his bet is pretty small : 5/9,5 = 52 %.

Anyway without further infos I would not call the Turn without a hit because: If he calls a lot on pre -> just go tighter and win if you hit something.

Originally posted by Klausen16
What range do you give villian @ the turn before the ur check?
What you think it is after his bet ?
Do you have some informations about the flop-play about him like fold-to-cbet?
Did you checked out how big he bets OTF/OTT because his bet is pretty small : 5/9,5 = 52 %.

Anyway without further infos I would not call the Turn without a hit because: If he calls a lot on pre -> just go tighter and win if you hit something.

We have two overs and a gutshot on the turn, so easy call due to old-fashioned odds and outs calculation. Or did the math change over the last years?

I posted this before read our friends commentaries and just after made it I'll look and make my comments in blue. This will help me to understand how others with more experience think.

Pre flop: OK for me raise KQs despite the Reverse Implied odds you can win if a LAG calls and you make a top pair.
Based on villain stats I assigned the following range of call: JJ-22,ATs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,ATo-A6o,KTo+,QJo,JTo (225 combos)

Flop: I don't see too much pot equity to hero or even do fold equity to cbet: The villain will keep 139 combos and due he is a Losse passive. Against the range that villain keeps hero has 37% of equity.
I would play check/fold

Turn: easy fold - Sendrafreak - you'd 10outs or 20% to hit a hand in draw (not exclude hearts). I don't see any advantage in call here.

Despite what I said the villain could win with A high without hit nothing on board too, but this is not enough to spew money.

Originally posted by R3CRUIT
I posted this before read our friends commentaries and just after made it I'll look and make my comments in blue. This will help me to understand how others with more experience think.

Pre flop: OK for me raise KQs despite the Reverse Implied odds you can win if a LAG calls and you make a top pair.
Based on villain stats I assigned the following range of call: JJ-22,ATs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,ATo-A6o,KTo+,QJo,JTo (225 combos)

Flop: I don't see too much pot equity to hero or even do fold equity to cbet: The villain will keep 139 combos and due he is a Losse passive. Against the range that villain keeps hero has 37% of equity.
I would play check/fold

Turn: easy fold - Sendrafreak - you'd 10outs or 20% to hit a hand in draw (not exclude hearts). I don't see any advantage in call here.

Despite what I said the villain could win with A high without hit nothing on board too, but this is not enough to spew money.

Turn: He bets 10 into 35, so I need 45:10 = 4,5:1. I have 10 Outs, so I get 36:10 = 3,6:1 => Call...

Originally posted by Sendrafreak
We have two overs and a gutshot on the turn, so easy call due to old-fashioned odds and outs calculation. Or did the math change over the last years?

Yes so gutshot (3 Outs -> the J♥: will probably give u a hard time here) and 2 Overs (4 Outs -> the with the :heart:-cards) will give u 7 Outs -> so with just one further card calc this * 2 and you get 14 % Hit. If you assume he never will have the flush there you can go with 10 Outs but would not calc like this.
U call 10/45 = 22 %. So assuming that villian does never have a set you should go like break even. As well you have a problem if there is a possible flush.

If you hit the K or Q Pair and you bet -> what does he call here? Without any further infos for the flop-river-play-style of villian I think you just have problems to get money out of him after he saw the K or the Q on the board. And if you bet here on the river and hes ahead with somthing like set, flush, 2pair, ... you loose 50% + of the river pot or even more or aleast have a hard decision if he will raise the river.

To make it more specific I estimate a first range of villian on turn:

So If we assume that he is a fishy guy who just bets his overcards as well you go like:

And even the wider range will beat u:

What arguments do we have to call here without further infos to villian that he plays the 80%-bluff-style or similar things?
And in generell vs a guy with high vpip and normal pfr we go probitable by outplay his fit-or-fold-thing by pre:bet and cbet flop without anything.
And if he does not play the fit-or-fold-thing we should win by going more tight and let this guy run into made hands.

Best regards

Originally posted by Klausen16

Originally posted by Sendrafreak
We have two overs and a gutshot on the turn, so easy call due to old-fashioned odds and outs calculation. Or did the math change over the last years?

Yes so gutshot (3 Outs -> the J♥: will probably give u a hard time here) and 2 Overs (4 Outs -> the with the :heart:-cards) will give u 7 Outs -> so with just one further card calc this * 2 and you get 14 % Hit. If you assume he never will have the flush there you can go with 10 Outs but would not calc like this.
U call 10/45 = 22 %. So assuming that villian does never have a set you should go like break even. As well you have a problem if there is a possible flush.

If you hit the K or Q Pair and you bet -> what does he call here? Without any further infos for the flop-river-play-style of villian I think you just have problems to get money out of him after he saw the K or the Q on the board. And if you bet here on the river and hes ahead with somthing like set, flush, 2pair, ... you loose 50% + of the river pot or even more or aleast have a hard decision if he will raise the river.

To make it more specific I estimate a first range of villian on turn:

So If we assume that he is a fishy guy who just bets his overcards as well you go like:

And even the wider range will beat u:

What arguments do we have to call here without further infos to villian that he plays the 80%-bluff-style or similar things?
And in generell vs a guy with high vpip and normal pfr we go probitable by outplay his fit-or-fold-thing by pre:bet and cbet flop without anything.
And if he does not play the fit-or-fold-thing we should win by going more tight and let this guy run into made hands.

Best regards

Thx! Very nice analysis. I would never be able to realise this OTB, but yeah you're right, that's how we should do it.

Originally posted by Sendrafreak
Opponent: 55/10/2,2 (33 hands)

SB: $0.94 (47 bb)
BB: $2.27 (113.5 bb)
Hero (UTG): $2 (100 bb)
MP: $5.45 (272.5 bb)
CO: $2 (100 bb)
BTN: $3.84 (192 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K♣ Q♣
Hero raises to $0.08, MP calls $0.08, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.19) 3♠ 4♦ T♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.08, MP calls $0.08

Turn: ($0.35) 9♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

River: ($0.55) 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Would you play it the same way?

Bet Flop with a 33% size and on turn you should bet something like 40cent.

Personally We should rarely be cbetting this board against a calling station. Think about it he will call whether he has hit or not so why not save our $ for future streets? Calling the turn seems ok, but only because we're getting good implied odds from a station who will likely pay off if we hit. River check is good...don't forget the golden rule of almost never bluffing calling stations !!

Originally posted by Sendrafreak
...
Would you play it the same way?

No.

I'd raise 3 bb preflop to begin with. Then I check and fold on the flop. That flop missed us by a wide margin, and we can't pretend we hit it hard.

Turn: This is close. If you think it is about even money (in terms of direct odds), then call in position and fold out of position. This is out of position, and it is harder to realize equity.