Opponent: 18/12/4,6 (200 hands)
SB: $2.62 (131 bb)
BB: $2.16 (108 bb)
UTG+1: $2 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $2 (100 bb)
MP1: $0.90 (45 bb)
MP2: $7.08 (354 bb)
MP3: $2.96 (148 bb)
CO: $0.75 (37.5 bb)
BTN: $1.87 (93.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K♦ Q♠
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, MP1 calls $0.08, 4 folds, SB calls $0.07, BB calls $0.06
Flop: ($0.32) T♦ K♥ J♦ (4 players)
SB bets $0.26, BB folds, Hero ???
Would you fold and, if not, call, raise something or raise all-in?
He has 24 bb left at that point. Implied odds are 29 bb (pot) + 24 bb = 53 bb. It costs you 13 bb to call. This is 4:1 for calling assuming he goes broke if you hit. (Disclaimer: I am sleepy, and had no morning coffee.) Then start counting outs...
If you raise, he'll be offered 29 bb + 24 bb = better than 2:1. I doubt he'll ever fold a better hand -> bluffing will not work. Can you beat his value range? My answer would be no. The only reason to raise is to prevent him from bluffing you out on turn or river. Too slim a reason.
This is a pure math problem with the input parameters being his range and behaviors. The parameters are pure guesses that you should guess yourself. The math is hard work that you should do yourself too.:)
Originally posted by YohanN7
He has 24 bb left at that point. Implied odds are 29 bb (pot) + 24 bb = 53 bb. It costs you 13 bb to call. This is 4:1 for calling assuming he goes broke if you hit. (Disclaimer: I am sleepy, and had no morning coffee.) Then start counting outs...If you raise, he'll be offered 29 bb + 24 bb = better than 2:1. I doubt he'll ever fold a better hand -> bluffing will not work. Can you beat his value range? My answer would be no. The only reason to raise is to prevent him from bluffing you out on turn or river. Too slim a reason.
This is a pure math problem with the input parameters being his range and behaviors. The parameters are pure guesses that you should guess yourself. The math is hard work that you should do yourself too.:)
Yeah, he wants to go broke, actually I raised and he went all-in. Ok, how can you solve this problem in 1-5 seconds OTB? Okay, I take a prgram afterwards and check it, but this is still not a viable solution method for practical cases. Are there any rules of thumb? Like in limit when you know that for 7:1 you can always call a gutshot OTF and have to fold ui OTT?
You'd a lot of value in this hand: TPgoodK, OESD, Trips draw and you are blocking Qs. Odds 52%.
The most important thing is the villain read. You'd played with him at least 50hands and should know his draw play style, etc,.
Originally posted by Arnalsan
You'd a lot of value in this hand: TPgoodK, OESD, Trips draw and you are blocking Qs. Odds 52%.
The most important thing is the villain read. You'd played with him at least 50hands and should know his draw play style, etc,.
Sorry, I didn't have a read about his style at all, just the info that he's not at total monkey. In general I'm just interested in an overall strategy vs unknown because there are so many players at the micros.
So back to the hand: If it's really 52% here, ok, then I can call, that's for sure.
It's hard not to defend that hand on that flop, please call.
And SB isn't shortstack at all, is he ? 
Chinese proverb : Give a HUD to a man, he'll exploit one day, but teach him to use a tracker... and he'll complain about his AIEV all his life 
"Si debis pedere, pedis superbe. (If you must fart, fart proudly)" VorpalF2F
Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
And SB isn't shortstack at all, is he ?No, he's fullstacked (131 BB at the beginning).
Originally posted by Sendrafreak
Originally posted by YohanN7
He has 24 bb left at that point. Implied odds are 29 bb (pot) + 24 bb = 53 bb. It costs you 13 bb to call. This is 4:1 for calling assuming he goes broke if you hit. (Disclaimer: I am sleepy, and had no morning coffee.) Then start counting outs...If you raise, he'll be offered 29 bb + 24 bb = better than 2:1. I doubt he'll ever fold a better hand -> bluffing will not work. Can you beat his value range? My answer would be no. The only reason to raise is to prevent him from bluffing you out on turn or river. Too slim a reason.
This is a pure math problem with the input parameters being his range and behaviors. The parameters are pure guesses that you should guess yourself. The math is hard work that you should do yourself too.:)
Yeah, he wants to go broke, actually I raised and he went all-in. Ok, how can you solve this problem in 1-5 seconds OTB? Okay, I take a prgram afterwards and check it, but this is still not a viable solution method for practical cases. Are there any rules of thumb? Like in limit when you know that for 7:1 you can always call a gutshot OTF and have to fold ui OTT?
Only experience really helps. You might remember similar spots that you have analyzed in the past.
