Hey my friend - its been too long! Nice to see you back
About the hand, there is several things I don't like in your thinking process, will try to quickly break it down:
- River sizing is less than 1/2 donk bet so based on bet sizing it is not polarized range
- Defend range of BB vs HJ for 50+bb effective (the wider he calls middling hands and suited ones, the worse it gets for you)
- Your K9 may not have showdown value but the problem with it is that you block opponents bluffing range. You discount 9x bluff combos he might have called and donk river with. On the other hand 9x blocks 1/4 of his value straight combos 98.
Major problem with the hand and why I don't like bluff raising in those spots without super specific reads:
- Opponent has sets, 2 pairs, straights and TPSK in those spots when donking river less then 1/2 pot
- Pot to stack ratio is such that you don't get fold equity nowhere near frequently to bluff jam here
- Your bet sizing on flop and turn dictates that you were setting up value on river
In some crazy meta game, opponent might donk bet weaker TPs here to get value or make you make mistake (because people play terrible vs donk bets in general) or he does it from his range construction stand point where TPWK or such hand is not good enough on average to call 3 streets (especially facing larger bet on river) while donking river makes him control the action where he expects you to raise him with only super strong hands (2 pairs, sets and straights). If he is thinking like THIS and you KNOW he thinks like this, then your bluff jam river makes sense because he will likely split his range to bluff catch you with strong hands by x/c or x/jam while his donk range will consist of 2nd value category hands which he may decide to fold facing raise river since river raises are perceived as very strong range overall (in 2017 still!).
Anyways, I would not make such play and try to do theory part here without properly reading into opponents cold calling range vs early position as well as how he reacts on river and what his donk bets are. For example, if he always donks 2 pairs or better, you have zero fold equity. If he donks TPWK, you may get some fold equity.
Again, depends if he is strong, weak, decent reg or recreational as well as buy in limit. If its 10$ game , he will likely bet call TPWK, in 100$ game likely bet fold to your jam. Your meta game with him plays also key role but I think you leveled yourself here a bit too much. I see tons of 2 pairs, sets and TPs in his range and if he plays donking with value hands considering you never 3 barrel bluff your busted draws then you have very little to none fold equity here (assuming he does donk some FDs that missed, still nowhere near enough bluffs vs his value donking range).
Anyways, glad to see you back and I look forward hearing what you have been up to man!
Crush it!
