TwoPair/FH OTR vs UTG

oh man, full ring. brings me good memories

preflop -> fold. this is too weak against utg, there are tons of people left to act

flop -> it's interesting that you flop one of the strongest hands you can and still feel like you cannot raise the flop. so fold pre, of course.
even if he folds AK/AA (are the games still this nitty?) and you feel like folding to a 3bet, you can still make him pay with draws and he's setting an amazing price for everyone here. also AA has about 30% or something on the flop so making it fold is not a huge disaster

turn -> you're playing one of the nittiest games on earth, nobody is balanced and nobody cares if you are balanced. is his range too strong or not? imo it's still ok to raise/fold this as he only bets half pot.

river -> as you said, pot odds. let's say for the sake of argument that you need 40%.
of course he always ships KK, KQs (KQo is too weak to open). that's actually only 2 combos (due to blockers), but the KQ is a split, so you actually already have 25% in this scenario. therefore, calling cannot be a huge mistake if KQs is in his range.
now well, do you ever win? a single 88 combo (out of 3 possible) is enough to bring you to 50% -> if he ships 88 at least 1/3 of the time, you can call.

now well, in a nitty game, of course i would never ever 3betshove 88 against a river raise. but as you said he made some weak bets so i'm not giving him credit for being a super strong player, if he has it then he has it

I agree with Tomaloc.
I don't have much experience in full ring games but I was also thinking about raising either OTF or OTT. As player I would definitely call OTR. There are just so few combos that beat us.

What are you going to do if he 3bets OTF or OTT when you raise? Fold if not enough implied odds for FH outs?

I called, he had KQo

yeah, you should most likely fold to a 3bet if you don't expect any bluff range or overplays, but you make money when he just calls.
KQ is the bottom of strong value range here...

range with KQ sets and combodraws
Board: K♦Q♥8♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    64.24%  54.70%   9.55% { KK-QQ, 88, KQs, AhJh, AhTh, JhTh }
MP3    35.76%  26.21%   9.55% { KhQd }

if he overplays AA/AK of course it becomes a stackoff but should probably not count on it.

But if I have to fold my 35% equity after he 3bets, why can't I just call and evaluate the other streets? Why do I need to be so specific about my hand so early? I don't understand it. I don't want to fold against his combo draws. At the same time I don't want to be crushed. He makes a cheap price OTF and OTT. Why would I waste my equity just because I need to "protect" against his combo draws? If he is on a plain FD it is still not the end of the world to just call here, especially because I can redraw. I am in position and can decide to raise later if I think I am now way ahead... ??

generally speaking, top two is too strong to be just playing way ahead/way behind. while we don't want to stack off, this hand should be worth more than 3 halfpot bets (if you don't hit the river FH draw you won't be happy raising a third bet or betting too large, right? also sometimes flush comes, straight comes and even if he wasn't drawing, he won't invest anything more with 1 pair...)
if you don't wanna guess if he fastplays his combodraws or not, then wait for a safe card on the turn (like the one that came) so his draws lose a lot of equity and he should be more inclined to play them passively.

I think it is a quite common mistake to think that we can't do something because vs further action we have to fold. For example why check call the flop if we have to check fold OTT often.
Same thing when someone wants to have a clear plan for the whole hand on every street. Sometimes they ask, well if I call this flop, what do I do when I call the turn and OTR I stab vs his missed cbet and he raises.. Not relevant. We should just simply take the line we think is the best and then re-evaluate.

OK i can get behind a raise/fold OTT. As played I would have raise/fold OTR on a brick

Originally posted by la55i
I think it is a quite common mistake to think that we can't do something because vs further action we have to fold. For example why check call the flop if we have to check fold OTT often.
Same thing when someone wants to have a clear plan for the whole hand on every street. Sometimes they ask, well if I call this flop, what do I do when I call the turn and OTR I stab vs his missed cbet and he raises.. Not relevant. We should just simply take the line we think is the best and then re-evaluate.

Well as always it depends. Both things can be true. Isolating every street on its own can also be a mistake.
For this the specific hand I don't think it is a mistake to think ahead one more action (his call vs his 3bet). Because the answer will tell you why you raise in the first place and why it might be more profitable to call instead. Remember that we are IP. Why not use the position more?

We mainly raise to get value and also to prevent villain from realizing his equity cheaply. Our top 2 pair is quite strong but it is still vulnerable.