(non)OFFICIAL Sports betting Post a Pick thread

Sport: Hockey
Tournament/League: NHL
Teams: Florida Panthers @ Calgary Flames
Pick: Florida +0.5 in Regulation
Odds: 1.740 (Pinnacle)

The Panthers have won 4 straight on the road, and 5 of their last 7, including a win in St. Louis. Calgary has been struggling of late at home. Calgary has finished Regulation with a tie in 4 of their last 6, and only managed to win one of those games. Calgary did play some good teams, but the last push was against Chicago, and one was against Buffalo.

It's not the best pick, but that's all I got tonight. My picks are +EV, meaning in the long run they are profitable.

Originally posted by Avataren
Hello all my name is Avataren and im a casual sports better.

Going from $50 - $5000 over a few months using a BRM of only betting 1% of your total roll per pick.

According to my spreadsheet calculation, in order to do this in 3 months, you would need to be placing 10 bets per day, with a 51% R.O.I., or 20 bets per day, with a 26% R.O.I., (or some other insane combination of number of picks vs R.O.I..) I find this very difficult to believe, unless you have been adding money from other sources to your betting account. Or perhaps you have discovered some sort of mathematical system that you are using to make your selections? Otherwise, no person could possibly research 10-20 games per day and get such a large R.O.I., and maintain it consistently over a three month period!

Moreover, I would suggest that if you have such a large R.O.I., that you should be betting more than 1% of your bankroll on each bet.

♠_cool:

Final Score: Florida Panthers 6, Calgary Flames 3!

That worked well for you

Okay, I'll add another. We're going to take the Los Angeles Kings to defeat the Chicago Blackhawks, in Chicago.

Here are some trends:

Kings are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Kings are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Kings are 13-4 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Kings are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. Central.

Blackhawks are 10-25 in their last 35 vs. a team with a winning record.
Blackhawks are 11-30 in their last 41 vs. Western Conference.
Blackhawks are 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win.
Blackhawks are 5-16 in their last 21 vs. Pacific.
Blackhawks are 1-7 in their last 8 home games.
Blackhawks are 1-8 in their last 9 overall.
Blackhawks are 1-9 in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
Blackhawks are 1-10 in their last 11 Monday games.
Blackhawks are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Sport: Hockey
Tournament/League: NHL
Teams: Los Angeles Kings @ Chicago Blackhawks
Pick: Los Angeles Kings +0.5 in Regulation
Odds: 1.675 (Pinnacle)
Pick: Los Angeles Kings ML in Overtime Included
Odds: 2.090 (Pinnacle)

We're midway through the second period, and it's 3-0 for Los Angeles!

Edit: The final score was 3-1 for Los Angeles!

That worked well for you. I have no clue how everything works in the NHL, but it’s weird it’s still on when the Olympic Games is with the Olympic ice hockey tournament.

Seems like an educated pick! I don't know anything about icehockey.

Originally posted by SDK1987
That worked well for you. I have no clue how everything works in the NHL, but it’s weird it’s still on when the Olympic Games is with the Olympic ice hockey tournament.

I don't know the whole story behind it, but I know that the Commissioner of the league nixed the plan for the league to participate. Many players are not pleased with being unable to play.

Originally posted by Tim128
Seems like an educated pick! I don't know anything about icehockey.

I don't know if we are allowed to post Youtube links, but I don't see any rules that prohibit doing so.

Here are a couple short videos that compare soccer & hockey:

That looks better. Then you don’t need to click on the link to watch it

Let's add another, for your Mother.

Sport: Hockey
Tournament/League: NHL
Teams: Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals
Pick: Buffalo Sabres +0.5 Spread in First Period
Odds: 1.621 (Pinnacle)
Pick: Buffalo Sabres +0.5 Spread in Regulation
Odds: 2.200 (Pinnacle)

The Sabres have won 4 times, and tied 2 times in the First Period, in their last 6 road games. Washington has 1 win, 2 losses, and 3 ties in their last 6 First Periods played at home.

The Sabres have won or tied in Regulation time, in their last 6 road games, even defeating the mighty Boston Bruins, 4-2. Washington has only won 2 of their last 6 games at home, and has tied in Regulation time in 2 of those 6 games.

Some interesting trends:

Capitals are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Capitals are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Capitals have dropped 10 of their last 16 contests (6-6-4)
Sabres Goaltender Robin Lehner has been money on the road of late, going 3-0-1, 1.22 and .963 in his last four starts away from KeyBank Center.
The Caps are just 2-3-2 in their last seven games and have simply not kept the puck out of their net, allowing 27 goals in those seven games. They've lost three of their last four games, with the only win coming Monday over the Sabres. (The last game is fresh in both team's minds)

I don't believe Buffalo will win here, but we don't need them to. All Buffalo needs to do is tie the First Period, and send the game to Overtime to get us the wins.

I just found out that Evander Kane won't be in the lineup for Buffalo. That's bad news for these picks.

Poor picks... I knew they weren't great, but I wanted to contribute something... It looks like I am going to lose both.

Final Scores:
0-1 Period
1-5 Regulation

I've wagered -5.00 units.
I've won: +1.740 units, +1.675 units, and +2.090 units, for a total of: +0.505 units.

Next time better. Do you have betted on the OS final Ice hockey or not?

You can't win them all, do you do sports betting a lot?

Originally posted by SDK1987
Next time better. Do you have betted on the OS final Ice hockey or not?

I think that you are asking, if I have placed any bets on the Olympics? No, I'm not following Olympic hockey.

Originally posted by Tim128
You can't win them all, do you do sports betting a lot?

Yes, sports betting is going to be my ticket to riches. I suck at poker!

How about you? I saw you post at least one pick in this thread.

Thanks for the useful thread. Will definitely be looking forward to the tips here.

Originally posted by Navrark

Originally posted by SDK1987
Next time better. Do you have betted on the OS final Ice hockey or not?

I think that you are asking, if I have placed any bets on the Olympics? No, I'm not following Olympic hockey.

Originally posted by Tim128
You can't win them all, do you do sports betting a lot?

Yes, sports betting is going to be my ticket to riches. I suck at poker!

How about you? I saw you post at least one pick in this thread.

I do sometimes bet for 3 reasons, if I can get madrid above 2 I'll usually take it although that's more of a funbet, sometimes I do sportsbetting cause of some promo (for example, bet €10 and get a freebet of €5 or something similar), and very occasionally I really do think I found some value because I think the market is overvalueing or undervalueing something. I used a software program that helped me track them as well, but that was only a one week trial.

How do you go for getting your picks, just following the sports a lot? Digging into the stats etc?

Originally posted by Tim128
You can't win them all, do you do sports betting a lot?

Not really. I follow it a little bit, but I do it sometimes for fun.

The sports books keep treating the Colorado Avalanche like underdogs, and I keep making money betting on them.

Colorado blew out Minnesota 7-1, in their last game at home.

Nashville is playing 3 games in 4 nights, while Colorado is fresh.

Nashville has been having a hard time on the road playing weak teams. They needed overtime against Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa and the New York Islanders, all in February.
The only quality teams Nashville has played of late on the road, were Toronto and Winnipeg, and they lost to Toronto in overtime, and beat Winnipeg in regulation.

Colorado hasn't required overtime at home since January 2nd. They won that game, and every game since, except for one. They've won 13 of their last 14 at home.

Sport: Hockey
Tournament/League: NHL
Teams: Nashville Predators @ Colorado Avalanche
Pick: Colorado +0.5 in First Period
Odds: 1.534 (Pinnacle)
Pick: Colorado +0.5 in Regulation
Odds: 1.769 (Pinnacle)
Pick: Colorado ML in Overtime Included
Odds: 2.320 (Pinnacle)