AQs - nut flush draw and 2 overcards

According to ICM you should fold this hand:

If I make the correct calc :
$EV if you fold: $14,77 of the prize pool
$EV if you can & win: $ 19,57 of the prize pool
64% [your equity]* 19,57+36%*0= $12,52
$EV of your stack after a fold = $14,77 > $EV of your stack after a call = $12,52
As you can see, the best play in this situation is a fold. Calling is a mistake costing you -$2,25

Equity:
MP2 36.19% 34.27% 1.92% 44+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o
MP3 63.81% 61.89% 1.92% AsQs

Ok. Just have in mind that Im a HU player only and never played 6max so I'll take it as a HU situation.

1st of all @Arnaslan the range you are giving to our villian may be a bit too wide for a push there.

Now. From ppl tendencies hands I see mostly played like this are FD , TP rarely sets and sometimes some trapping OP (probably more in HU games) and then some random pushes with 2OC or lower PP, Ax hands. And in that case ur way ahead.

If we narrow this to only TP and sets ur are still right to call , when u add FDs its an ez call for me.

Remember that in SnG we are trying to reach prize pool and not win specific spots and:
A chip you are about to win in an SNG is not necessarily worth as much as the one you're risking to win it!

If I narrow the range will be the worst.

Disclaimer: I'm not a winning player in SnG, but, my commentaries have the aim to:

You at least know how a fish could think about a hand
Learning throughout discussion like in a session review where we can comment alive
Wait for master passing by and learn a little bit more
Compare my level of toughness

:f_drink::f_drink::f_drink:

As played I would say that villain was playing per set mining: Why I derive this thought.
CO open limps and cold call Iso-raise ----> now the range are narrowed in my point of view.

In a quiet wet board, he changes gears and thought - no more playing for set mining ---> as 9 would be a small part of our hero iso-raise range he decided to push transforming his hand in a bluff and collect dead money, instead, to dive in a weak post-flop action.

Originally posted by Arnalsan
:f_drink::f_drink::f_drink:

As played I would say that villain was playing per set mining: Why I derive this thought.
CO open limps and cold call Iso-raise ----> now the range are narrowed in my point of view.

In a quiet wet board, he changes gears and thought - no more playing for set mining ---> as 9 would be a small part of our hero iso-raise range he decided to push transforming his hand in a bluff and collect dead money, instead, to dive in a weak post-flop action.

Yep that is why I mentioned that in worst scenario he could have a set, because the play preflop looks really like pocket pair under TT to setmine despite the fact pot odds is bad for him and he is OOP. He is a fish and don't know this stuff I guess.

However, thanks for answers. Would love to hear opinion of some expert.

Originally posted by villijmeen99

Originally posted by Arnalsan
:f_drink::f_drink::f_drink:

As played I would say that villain was playing per set mining: Why I derive this thought.
CO open limps and cold call Iso-raise ----> now the range are narrowed in my point of view.

In a quiet wet board, he changes gears and thought - no more playing for set mining ---> as 9 would be a small part of our hero iso-raise range he decided to push transforming his hand in a bluff and collect dead money, instead, to dive in a weak post-flop action.

Yep that is why I mentioned that in worst scenario he could have a set, because the play preflop looks really like pocket pair under TT to setmine despite the fact pot odds is bad for him and he is OOP. He is a fish and don't know this stuff I guess.

However, thanks for answers. Would love to hear opinion of some expert.

Me too, Collin Moshman could pass by a give a hint at least or other expert as Unam, Phzon, others.