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Kings vs Strong-Raise Cbet Flop from a Nit

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Rainmy
Joined: 17.07.2009

Raise Cbet 3bet pot: 20 (1/5)

Is it Instacall?!? even though the player is nit and I'm blocking an out for his flush draw? I think all over pairs are doing the same (ofc with a smaller raise).

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 310.2 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
Hero (SB): 101.4 BB
BB: 160.8 BB (VPIP: 18.33, PFR: 10.93, 3Bet Preflop: 1.45, Hands: 553)
UTG: 102.8 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: 101 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
CO: 200.2 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♦ K♠

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.6 BB, Hero raises to 9.8 BB, BB calls 8.8 BB, fold

Flop: (22.2 BB, 2 players) 4♥ 6♦ 9♦
Hero bets 14 BB, BB raises to 63.2 BB, Hero ???


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7 replies
Ac3onth3riv3r
Joined: 17.02.2017

For me fold is the best option here. Your hand almost never will be good in this spot especially vs a nit player


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filip212
Joined: 30.05.2010

What could be Nit range here?
I think QQ-88,66,44,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd
vs this range you have 68,45% Equity
Your odds are 33,10% If he will have only half of range which i use you can profitable call this :)


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clovenhoofsdoom
Joined: 04.03.2016

I think this hand is fine to push over his raise. I mean, the NIT probably won't have 44 and 66 in his range, maybe he fold even 99 preflop (but he will never raise 88 on 9 high flop so your range is somehow optimistic) . And I guess he would 4bet Aces preflop, but since he 3bet only 1.4% he may as well just call the 3bet with Aces. I would push that hand here and find out.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

it's more like a reluctant push. it doesn't look like amazing money printing spot


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clovenhoofsdoom
Joined: 04.03.2016

Yeah, of course. But for a fold the holding is too strong. If he is a reasonable NIT there are maybe 9 handcombinations that already beat KK: 6x Aces, 3x 99. The other holdings like flushdraws or combodraws and weaker overpairs are kind of coinflip at worst case, and since he has to invest 76,3 BB to win 204 BB (minus rake) this is a clear push, isn't it?

Ok I did not think too much about the range the NIT would play like this, it's probably not a big range.


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xiaohetao
Joined: 29.05.2018

+1 for instapush


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Sunrise1912
Joined: 24.11.2009

I am instafolding here vs this nit. From my experience this is always AA, 99, 44, 66 and one hand of KK. Such nits do not raise drows


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