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NL20 - TPTK vs river jam

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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

SB: $31.43 (157.2 bb)
BB: $6.18 (30.9 bb)
MP: $6 (30 bb)
Hero (CO): $20 (100 bb)
BTN: $21.32 (106.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q♣: A♠:
MP folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.50) Q♥: 3♣: 5♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: ($3.90) J♣: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.12, Hero calls $3.12

River: ($10.14) 6♣: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $16.40 and is all-in

Hi,

First hand vs this villain so not much info.

Flop: I can cbet or x/c oop, decided to go with the x/c line this time. Villain bets quite large but decided to call because I have one of the best x/c hands here in my range besides slowplayed sets.

Turn: Villain bets again quite large. I "have" to call as top of my range and anyways quite standard call as played.

River: The backdoor flush completes, and villain overbet jams. I think that this is an interesting spot. Villlain should not have QQ, so possible sets are 33 and 55. I think that Jacks would not bet flop that big and they should 3bet most often preflop so he should not have Jacks. 66 should not either play flop or turn like this.

Anyways, I think that he would not jam sets here when the backdoorflush completes. So his value range is most likely backdoor flushes that would play all streets like this. But then, I don't see him having any bluffs that play like this.

So --> value is flushes, but I have no idea what bluffrange he could have here? 9Tss,9Thh? Thats about it.. I feel like bluffcatching but I think that it is a bad idea against unknown who overbets in first hand. We even have the club blocker in our hand....

What do you think?


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18 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I pretty much agree with your reasoning. QQ is just 1 combo and I think he should often 3bet pre, so I would almost totally exclude that. Also JJ because it is 3 combos that could 3bet pre and might not bet the flop that big. We have the Qc which makes a BDFD even more unlikely.

I'm at work atm so can't put too much time in to thinking about this but I must say I would be tempted to call. He could have just stabbed your flop check and then got frustrated when you didn't fold and wants to force you to fold OTR. That happens quite often, bluffs get out of hand. Very strong hands are unlikely and you have quite a good hand.

But I totally understand if you folded too. Unknown guy shows a lot of strength. These lines are quite often strong.


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Shurikk
Joined: 21.05.2014

1. Flop

First hand vs this villain I can cbet or x/c oop, decided to go with the x/c line this time.

But why? Oop? Unknown opponent - just play ''normal'' line and get two streets of value!

2. Turn

Villain bets quite large but decided to call because I have one of the best x/c hands here in my range besides slowplayed sets.

And what range (hands) you will bet in this situation against unknown opp? You need to have some value-hands in your range. The opponent doesn't know you and your stats so again - why do you play x/c line?
I think on the turn we should seriously think about fold... Potbet flop, potbet turn.. What card do we expect to see on river? Every :club: , 9, T, K is bad run for as, and our 3 outs to A aren't as good also - he could play KTs like this...

3. River

but I have no idea what bluffrange he could have here?

OK, fold river.. And with our line (x/c, x/c against unknown opponent) we'll never know anything about his hand.. In contrast, we can get some info with two-street bets..


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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

La55i - Yeah, decided to fold because I had no info on villain, with some info I could call river (I don't know if he is super aggro or super nit). I really felt like calling but talked myself into folding. :f_cool:

Shurikk- x/c oop is normal line here, obv. I do also bet/bet Qx combos here , I don't x/c all of them.


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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

Shurikk - what hands do you x/c here if this is not good x/c? ?(


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think check call is fine here. We are OOP and keeping strong hands in our check calling range is quite important. The flop is very dry, we don't need protection and I'm not 100% sure if we want to barrel all 3 streets. So it kinda makes sense to check call this imo. Cbetting is of course a valid option too but I would make the sizing small.

I think on the turn we should seriously think about fold...

Actually just 80% of the flop on all streets. It is very close to 3/4pot bet which is quite standard. We have TPTK which on this flop was very strong. If villain decided to take a stab at us, the turn just improved many backdoor draws to a draw. If we fold there I think we are playing this quite weak.


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Shurikk
Joined: 21.05.2014

Shurikk- x/c oop is normal line here, obv.

Against optimal opponent - yes... :f_smile: But in this situation we just can play max exploiting game and it will be more profitable...

Originally posted by marsa08
Shurikk - what hands do you x/c here if this is not good x/c? ?(
QK (50 %), 99-JJ, QQ...
AQ is just too strong against unknown opponent on NL20 to waist our equity..


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

this feels a bit too strong to be x/calling flop with.
as played, river has to be a x/c against normal sizing, but against this line we can probably defend only the 3 QQ and our backdoor QcXc and it can't be that bad.

deciding for this particular hand just feels like a leveling decision, you could argue that he bets big to make you fold because your range is perceived as capped, or you could argue that he bets big because he has a value hand and he knows nowadays people try to have defending ranges in every spot. not a fan of trying to soulread


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Shurikk
Joined: 21.05.2014

If we fold there I think we are playing this quite weak.

If we call here than we have to call river


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Sunrise1912
Joined: 24.11.2009

Unknown player, so why are you balancing ? He doesnt have stats on you so you dont have to "go out" of the ordinary line. Cbet the flop.

I dont play NL 25 but at NL 10 and 16 zoom, they never bluff in these spots when i x/c the flop with Qx and call them down to defend my Qx range. I've learnt it the hard way. They are value heavy here, like always.

My x/c flop range is KQ, QJs, QTs (i have it in my utg open), JJ/TT/99.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by Shurikk

Shurikk- x/c oop is normal line here, obv.

Against optimal opponent - yes... :f_smile: But in this situation we just can play max exploiting game and it will be more profitable...

Checking could also make things easier on later streets. Sometimes we also get the max value out of villain by not betting because then they will often just start stabbing. Obviously we should play the max exploit game but can you explain your reasoning for the bet. How big would it be and how that would generate more profit? I'm not saying betting is bad, just want to continue the discussion about this :)

Originally posted by Tomaloc
this feels a bit too strong to be x/calling flop with.

Yea, could be worth 3 barrels. But then I would start with a small flop bet. What do you think about that?

Originally posted by Shurikk

If we fold there I think we are playing this quite weak.

If we call here than we have to call river

No we don't. Doing something on a previous street doesn't mean we are committed to do something on later streets. Being committed is often understood incorrectly. I talked about that in one of my videos where I go through common beginner mistakes. The river can play out many different ways depending on villains action and the river card. We still have about 1.5x pot effectively left. Calling the turn absolutely doesn't mean that we are committed to going broke whatever happens OTR.

Or if you disagree, then why should we call OTR?


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Shurikk
Joined: 21.05.2014

Obviously we should play the max exploit game but can you explain your reasoning for the bet. How big would it be and how that would generate more profit? I'm not saying betting is bad, just want to continue the discussion about this

1. NL20 - tendency in this field: 'typical unknown' villains would call a lot of weaker hands (all Qx and middle pairs) for 2 or even 3 streets... Some of these hands he will check-back and fold OTT 6x, 88-TT on J, K, or A..

2. It's much easier to play this line against unknown and not to commit ourselves in tough spots (just like TS posted...) : we have initiative+ info if he raises, we don't give him reason to bluff much by showing weakness etc.

Sometimes we also get the max value out of villain by not betting because then they will often just start stabbing.

Sometimes - when we have info about villain, playing with GTO regs or fit-or-fold fishes..

Or if you disagree, then why should we call OTR?

And why did we call on the turn? We call turn for what proposes? Do we stand good enough with our hand? If we have a reason to call turn, than what have changed on river? How many backdoor flushdraw in his range? I mean, that we behind on turn or flipping against combodraw, but what is our plan on most rivercards? Just call 80 % pot on turn to fold a river? How often do you see 2 barrels of such sizing and check on river?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Okay let's go over this hand.
If we first think about what would be an optimal play, then checking first would be fine in my opinion. Betting quite frequently but very small is another fine option. I checked this also with Snowie and the result is the same. It would mix checks and bets with 25% sizing, but it would bet more frequently than check.
Then OTT because we went with this line and have one of the strongest hands, turn opened FD for some backdoors that might have stabbed. I think it is just a super clear call on this dryish board with TPTK when villain bets totally standard sizings. Snowie agrees and it is not even close, it is so clear call as it can be.
OTR I initially said that I would be tempted to call, so would Snowie. It would call something like 80% of the time, but because it would sometimes fold it means the EV of calling is 0 or very close to it.
So against a competent villain I think this is played quite well.

My reasoning to check call OTF would be that our hand is not vulnerable, villain can't have much and we might not be able to extract 3 streets of value anyway. Starting with a check could make it a bit easier for us to play because we are OOP. The reason to call OTT is simply because we have TPTK which is quite strong on this board and villain can be barreling many hands that we beat. Clear call imo there. And river is whatever as said many times before.

1. NL20 - tendency in this field: 'typical unknown' villains would call a lot of weaker hands (all Qx and middle pairs) for 2 or even 3 streets... Some of these hands he will check-back and fold OTT 6x, 88-TT on J, K, or A..

Typical unknown, if he is any good, will not even have many Qx hands here. Middle pairs he can call OTF but I really doubt he is going to call 2 streets with many of them and getting value from those on 3 streets is too optimistic. I disagree about that he would check back with some of those and then fold OTT. If he would call one bet OTF then he probably is more likely to call the turn if flop is checked. For example now the board didn't get very scary but opened some maybe possible draws. If the flop would have been checked through and we take a stab OTT, it looks just like it, taking a stab with a weak hand. And according to my analysis a typical unknown probably folds slightly too much against cbets so that it quite the opposite of getting 3 streets of value from 77.

2. It's much easier to play this line against unknown and not to commit ourselves in tough spots (just like TS posted...) : we have initiative+ info if he raises, we don't give him reason to bluff much by showing weakness etc.

I also disagree that it is easier to play. I would say check calling once, twice, three times is easier than betting and not getting any info and then maybe checking or betting small OTR and not know what to do when villain either bets or minraises us there. We get some info if he raises but really can we just directly fold TPTK on a dry board if the raise is not huge? Also we don't get any info if we just do the betting. Also we are not showing weakness. Good villain at this limit doesn't automatically think we are weak when we check a flop like this. Also what does it matter if we look weak and villain start barreling, our hand is often good here so it shouldn't be a problem.

And why did we call on the turn? We call turn for what proposes? Do we stand good enough with our hand? If we have a reason to call turn, than what have changed on river? How many backdoor flushdraw in his range? I mean, that we behind on turn or flipping against combodraw, but what is our plan on most rivercards? Just call 80 % pot on turn to fold a river? How often do you see 2 barrels of such sizing and check on river?

We call OTT because we have TPTK and the board is not very scary. Villain could easily be double barreling some weaker Qx or good pair like TT,99, he can also be double barreling some drawing hands. So yes, I absolutely think we are still often good enough with TPTK on this board that we should call an 80% pot bet. Absolutely. Now what changed OTR is that the possible backdoor flush did hit, something like A♣:T♣:, A♣:2♣:, A♣:4♣: and so on would be somewhat reasonable in his range. And also he bets huge. And as said above many times, I don't think calling that river shove would be terrible. I'm not sure why you don't think calling the turn is ok. Are you result oriented because you saw how this hand ended? I think there is a smaller chance that river improves villains possible bluffs than it doesn't.

So my plan on most of the river cards would really be to call a reasonably sized bet again. It happens quite often that villains bluffs get out of hand and he is just barreling like hell when he has air and we check to him OTF. And how often I see double barrels with standard sizings and they slow down OTR? Very very often.


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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

Thanks La55i for the analysis, I agree with everything. :f_thumbsup:


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by Tomaloc
this feels a bit too strong to be x/calling flop with.

Yea, could be worth 3 barrels. But then I would start with a small flop bet. What do you think about that?

sure, just seems like a good spot to cbet small and barrel a lot. then this goes in the 3barrel range - if he can't call a lot it's just more reason to be applying a lot of pressure in general.
if you argue that they are overfolding a ton and thus it becomes better to induce stabs at some point, i can agree.


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Zuxico
Joined: 19.04.2018

Against an unknown player it is almost always best to play just straightforward no need to balance.

In my opinion not C-Betting the flop against an unknown player is clearly a mistake as it can get you in a difficult spot (as it did) when your opponent starts betting. Which he can do for several reasons:
1) You showed weakness and he now aggressively tries to bet you off a hand
2) He has a strong hand and starts betting
Without knowing his tendencies it is a difficult spot.

Even on the river from his perspective he can try to get you of a good hand but not a great hand as you did not Cbet the flop as it is very unlikely that you have a flush and he can have any hand.


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Shurikk
Joined: 21.05.2014

la55i, it seems to me, that you are trying to became a winner in any discussion by using some misconception ...
You did a great analysis and really great work! Than you!
But!
Once again: I don't say that mixed strategy is bad or good! I said that on these limits exploiting by betting in this spot is more profitable!

And you are trying to prove the opposite by using PokerSnowie! :spit:

I checked this also with Snowie and the result is the same... OTR I initially said that I would be tempted to call, so would Snowie.

So, does Snowie play an exploiting game? No! It's close to GTO!

And, as I said previously about x/call line:

Sometimes - when we have info about villain, playing with GTO regs or fit-or-fold fishes..

I agree that your lines and strategy is close to optimal! But, we don't need it in this spot! Exploiting by betting 1/3 three streets is more profitable against unknown on NL20!

P.S.

Spoiler

So while an optimal player always takes the most profitable line against an optimal opponent, more profitable exploitative lines will usually be possible when facing weak opposition. Matthew Janda


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Noo I'm not trying to twist things so I would win the debate. I just want to figure this out properly. And I'm not completely sure what misconceptions you are talking about now?

If we take a look at what I wrote. I started with this "If we first think about what would be an optimal play". So I'm not saying we should try to play this close to GTO, I just started the analysis with what would be a close to GTO approach. Then I went ahead and tried to explain my thought process. I didn't base it in GTO but the outcome was quite similar than what Snowie would do. And of course betting is just fine, we saw that optimal play would often cbet here too and the sizing would be smaller. And I believe I said a couple of times that cbetting small should be totally fine.

I wanted to talk about this more in-depth because I want to understand why we are exploiting villain so hard by just cbetting here. In my opinion BTN should 3bet us quite frequently and not call so much. So when he just calls and the flop is like this, I think we have a big equity advantage. Our hand is very likely the best hand on this board. So then I think it makes perfect sense to 1) check and give him some rope, we can happily call him even on 3 streets depending on sizings and board runout, then we would be exploiting him if he attacks checks too hard as they usually do 2) bet but then the sizing should be small so we get light calls.

So even if we look at exploitative play, I still don't think checking is that much worse. And you don't have to quote Janda and tell that exploitative play is better if we can exploit. That is like telling me that the sky is blue :f_biggrin:

So to sum this up, I totally agree with you. And I agree that often just going straight for value and betting is profitable. I'm just not 100% sure it it makes any real difference in this particular hand.


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Shurikk
Joined: 21.05.2014

:f_drink:


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