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Bottom set vs turn raise

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juhiimi
Joined: 03.03.2009

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players, Zoom
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $11.99 (239.8 bb)
BB: $4.60 (92 bb) 31/20 H:36
UTG: $4.65 (93 bb)
Hero (MP): $5 (100 bb)
CO: $5 (100 bb)
BTN: $12.51 (250.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8♥: 8♣:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 3 folds, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32) A♦: 8♦: 9♣: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.21, BB calls $0.21

Turn: ($0.74) T♣: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.53, BB raises to $1.84, Hero raises to $4.64 and is all-in, BB calls $2.40 and is all-in

River: ($9.22) 3♣: (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Can i fold this buttom set OTT? I dont think that calling is an option with that many draws, so shove or fold.
He doesn't need much bluff or worst combos to be profitable for me to shove even against a monster range like: QJ,76,99,TT.


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5 replies
Densyosh
Joined: 30.10.2009

Lots of Ax in you range here so this turn destroys your hand when x/r this big because he cannot overbluff so much..


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juhiimi
Joined: 03.03.2009

Do you think a fishy looking guy realises this? I mean does he think in ranges?


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Densyosh
Joined: 30.10.2009

Blocking so much combos, his random flop call range looks like Ax, 9x, FD and some SD..
He overplays AT#9, T9#9= #18 (imo A9#9 can't x/r this turn after x/c this flop)
You lose vs QJ#16, TT/99#6, 76#4, J7s#4 = #30 (even if 99#3 could x/r flop and J7s is lol)

Obv you can add AJ+ in his x/r range and find a push when you think he's a whale..


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juhiimi
Joined: 03.03.2009

TT, 99 is 6 combos. Against this range you gave him is autoprofit to push, because we need to win 30% eq and we have 42%, if he always calls with the two pair type of hands.


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TyCobb
Joined: 30.03.2006

Double fd turn. unlimited OESD and alot of horrible river cards.

Just jam turn and gg.


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