MP vs CO with overpair vs flop raise and turn shove. Overplay or not?

Hello,

Originally posted by Ihuarraquax

Since he didn't raise me preflop but called, I thought he would not have any higher overpair than my JJ nor another JJ. So I felt I can be ahead most of the time.

You're right, he probably doesn't have any higher pair, but with the raise OTF, he might not even have any pair at all. I mean, population underbluffs here, so I think you might be behind OTF pretty often.

That being said, based on his stacksize I assume he is a fish and I'm not happy to make a herofold against that type of player. He could be easily overplaying something like tP. OTT it's an explo fold though, but I think it could potentionally be an explo fold OTF already. I think in theory it should be a call, but since they do not bluff often enough, we can overfold too. Yeah, given your potsize bet OTF I'd fold right there vs his raise. Actually, there is no need to bet that big next time.

It's good to know what kind of info you have on him. That could help as well, but most of the time a min raise is a sign of a strong hand, but on a dry board like this it's tough to have trips or a full house and read less I would go for it with a 3bet or even a shove.

Cheers,
SDK1987

OTF I would cbet smaller. When you get raised I would still call it. Some players are experimenting with raising on these dry low paired boards because most often when a guy cbets those boards they have air. sdf256 said players do not bluff here that often but I think it applies more on later streets. I don't have any board specific analysis but overall the flops are raised with air or a draw quite frequently already, then there are some TPTK hand and small overpairs and so on. So in general flop raises are not that nut heavy.

Then I think I would just check call OTT and let him do the heavy lifting. Your hand seems quite invulnerable. Villain has just 1$ left. I think if would be easier to get his stack with a check call and then if he doesn't ship it OTR you will do so. Now when you raise him, he could give up his bluff. For example now that villain had just A high, I would expect him to snap fold it vs your turn raise most of the time but if you just check call it is more likely he continues bluffing OTR.