Originally posted by Lazza61
Currently final testing a mathematical model that will cover various hockey and basketball leagues as well as NFL.I have designed the model to help identify outsiders that are currently overpriced as well as solid favourites.
Sounds interesting. Can you tell us a bit more about the logic behind the model?
Originally posted by Harrier88
Originally posted by Lazza61
Currently final testing a mathematical model that will cover various hockey and basketball leagues as well as NFL.I have designed the model to help identify outsiders that are currently overpriced as well as solid favourites.
Sounds interesting. Can you tell us a bit more about the logic behind the model?
There are a few factors here.
The sports for a start. Both hockey and basketball are given to close results. This in itself can mean dogs are naturally overpriced as close games may not necessarily be won by the dominant team, but by the team that handles the pressure better. One of the aims of the model is to highlight dogs that will be competitive and be in that position.
EXAMPLE
Yesterday the model suggested that Arizona @ $2.83 were overpriced at the Minnesota Wild @ $1.49. With Minnesota leading 3-1 late in the second period, Arizona scored there 2nd. Minnesota went defensive and allowed Arizona to attack while they tried to protect their one goal lead. Arizona managed to score again and tie the game.
Now Minnesota stopped trying to win the game and instead tried not to lose it. By the 10 minute mark of the third period, Arizona were ahead 4-3 and they didn't make the same mistake Minnesota had. They continued to attack and never allowed Minnesota to have sustained attacks.
I also had Novosibirsk to win at Kunlun in the KHL. They led 5-2 with 10 minutes to go, and 5-3 with 16 seconds left, but if all you do is sit back and let your opponents take potshots at your goal, sooner or later they start scoring. Thankfully, Novosibirsk won in OT.
In both hockey and basketball, I believe that teams give up their game dominance too quickly, too easily and too early to defend the lead they have earned. This gives the opposing team the opportunity to gain rhythm and confidence and work their way back into the contest.
Once back in the contest, they are now hard to shake off and continue to pressure the team that was leading comfortably. Then the dominant team starts to have doubts, after all they were beating their opponents easily before.
More to come..............
Todays US bets:
NBA Acca
01:35 Brooklyn Nets (Dog)
02:05 New Orleans Pelicans (Fav)
02:05 Minnesota Timberwolves (Fav)
02:05 Houston Rockets (Fav)
@ $7.27
AHL
01:00 Chicago Wolves @ $2.36
NHL
01:35 San Jose Sharks @ $2.56
03:05 Dallas Stars @ $2.88
Times are CET
You should messure each bet you make against Pinnacle closing odds it's method used by all sports traders (value bettors) and actually has been mathematically proven to make profit long term. I recommend you to take look article linked under.
And what it comes for betting overpriced underdogs, you might want to read this one as well. Generally bookies use higher margins for underdogs.
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/explaining-favourite-longshot-bias/VUN2U32R85PPF4YP
As well betting 4 games for same betslip doesn't increase value unless you get odds boost from bookmarker. Anyway it's rarely worth of variance compared to betting singles.
From yesterdays picks:
01:35 San Jose Sharks @ $2.56 --> Pinnacle line close at 2.44 which would mean this trade is around 1 - 2,4% ROI most likely 1 - 1,5% because of the long shot bias. Pinnacle has 2,5% margin for NHL games.
03:05 Dallas Stars @ $2.88 ---> Pinnacle line close at 2.82 which would mean this trade would have negative EV around -0,5% - 1,5%.
01:00 Chicago Wolves @ $2.36 --> There's no pinnacle line to measure + it's not really league where odds are that liquid. But you can compare it against the closing line of the market. Best closing odds for this game would be 1.62 / 2.55, by betting both sides you would make -0,9%. While worst odds being 1.52 / 2.35, by betting both sides you would make -6,6%. So my guess would be that this bet is around loosing around avg bookmarker margin (-6,6%).
And lastly most people think they are smarter than the market. This might lead you to prefer betting on certain outcome of the certain game. What ever you think is more profitable bet you should be aware of the moving of the odds. While betting for opening odds (set up by the bookies) or closing line (detainment by the market) avg bettor nearly never has edge, you might find edge betting somewhere between. Most bets are done somewhere between 12 - 2 hours before game (in some case 0h - 2h if there's lot of odds movement accuring), but most of the time it's because some factors are changing. You might find out that 45m earning quarterback of NBA team is not playing in the game, but odds have not yet adjusted for that. Sometimes odds move as well for absolutely no logical reason. Anyway it's something you want to turn in your favor when you bet on sports. Remember that if you bet hours before the game there's lot of factors that might cause for odds you bet to shorten. As well most of the sharp action occurs more close to kick off which generally means that if odds which you bet shorten after your bet, most likely your bet wasn't that good. Sometimes it's as well just bad luck. You might want to read articles under about odds movements.
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU
https://www.betstories.com/2016/03/15/football-betting-drifting-odds/
https://jimmakos.com/2016/02/betting-charts-beat-closing-odds/
Hey Partane,
Thanks for the awesome response. 
Everything you say, I totally agree 100%.
You should messure each bet you make against Pinnacle closing odds it's method used by all sports traders (value bettors) and actually has been mathematically proven to make profit long term.
I use Pinnacle as my benchmark, and if not then I'll use Marathon or best odds as listed at OddsPortal. Prices I list will be Pinnacle at the time I post, unless otherwise noted.
Due to changes in legislation in Australia, I no longer have access to low margin sportsbooks so I predominantly use Betfair as well as a small Australian sportsbook recently purchased by Stars.
And what it comes for betting overpriced underdogs, you might want to read this one as well. Generally bookies use higher margins for underdogs.
Agreed. This is not as much an issue at Betfair. There are enough recreational bettors around to ensure that I am getting better odds than sportsbooks, even allowing for commission.
As well betting 4 games for same betslip doesn't increase value unless you get odds boost from bookmarker. Anyway it's rarely worth of variance compared to betting singles.
Yes. I'm not a fan of accas. I will take 2 * NBA and 1 * NFL per week as my sportsbook will refund my money as a bonus bet if I go 3/4.
From yesterdays picks:
01:35 San Jose Sharks @ $2.56 --> Pinnacle line close at 2.44 which would mean this trade is around 1 - 2,4% ROI most likely 1 - 1,5% because of the long shot bias. Pinnacle has 2,5% margin for NHL games.
03:05 Dallas Stars @ $2.88 ---> Pinnacle line close at 2.82 which would mean this trade would have negative EV around -0,5% - 1,5%.
01:00 Chicago Wolves @ $2.36 --> There's no pinnacle line to measure + it's not really league where odds are that liquid. But you can compare it against the closing line of the market. Best closing odds for this game would be 1.62 / 2.55, by betting both sides you would make -0,9%. While worst odds being 1.52 / 2.35, by betting both sides you would make -6,6%. So my guess would be that this bet is around loosing around avg bookmarker margin (-6,6%).
The model (Codename: Judgement Day) is designed to try and find dogs that the market has overpriced. Therefore, there win rate should exceed the normal expectation.
Also, by betting on Betfair, I can get close to true odds, rather than biased.
Again, thanks for the great insights.
Cheers 
Laz
Todays US bets:
NBA
02:10 Golden State Warriors @ $4.69 (Backed at +8.0@$2.30 on Betfair, After commission $2.23)
Came back from around a 20 point deficit in the 2nd quarter to force overtime. Lost by 3
04:40 Indiana Pacers @ $2.92 (Backed at Betfair $2.94, After commission $2.84)
Behind 35-12 at quarter time, the Pacers fought back to take a short-lived lead in the 3rd quarter but couldn't maintain their momentum.
Even though the model selects the Warriors, it is only borderline. There is also some infighting between players which is affecting their performance. I am inclined to make a judgement call and not bet on them, or only back them at the line.
NHL
01:35 Buffalo Sabres @ $2.70 (Backed at Betfair $2.80, After commission $2.71)
Both sides led twice with Tampa Bay scoring the winner 5 minutes from the end. Lost 4-5
02:05 Arizona Coyotes @ $3.10 (Backed at Betfair $3.10, After commission $2.99)
Won easily 3-0
03:05 Los Angeles Kings @ $2.44 (Backed at Betfair $2.48, After commission $2.40)
Had a goal rejected on review at 2-2 early in the last period. Oilers scored the winner shortly after. Lost 2-3
04:05 Vancouver Canucks @ $2.50 (Backed at Betfair $2.54, After commission $2.46)
Behind 3-1 early in the last period but fought back to 3-3. Got a powerplay 6 minutes from time and pushed too hard and conceded a shorthanded goal. 
Lost 3-4
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Pinnacle via OddsPortal
Todays European bets:
HOCKEY
VHL (Russia)
11:30 Perm @ $2.46 (Backed at BetEasy $2.34)
Prices from Marathon as no H2H on Pinnacle
Liiga (Finland)
17:30 JYP @ $2.36
17:30 KooKoo @ $2.92
17:30 Lukko @ $3.15
Prices from Marathon as no H2H on Pinnacle
Extraliga (Czech Republic)
18:00 Vitkovice @ $2.67
18:00 Plzen @$2.70
Prices from Marathon as no H2H on Pinnacle
DEL (Germany)
19:30 Wolfsburg @ $2.67
Prices from Marathon as no H2H on Pinnacle
BASKETBALL
EUROLEAGUE
18:00 BC Khimki Moscow @ $2.44
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Pinnacle via OddsPortal, unless otherwise noted
Disappointing results in Finland. 
Todays US bets:
HOCKEY
AHL
01:00 Utica Comets @ $2.38
01:05 Wilkes-Barre/Scranton @ $2.62
04:00 Ontario Reign @ $2.40
Prices from BetEasy as no AHL on Pinnacle or Betfair
NHL
01:05 Buffalo Sabres @ $2.48
01:35 Anaheim Ducks @ $2.82
03:05 Los Angeles Kings @ $3.10
BASKETBALL
NBA
02:10 Miami Heat @ $2.34
04:40 Dallas Mavericks @ $2.65
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted
Led in 4 games......... and lost 
Todays European / Early US bets:
HOCKEY
VHL (Russia)
15:00 Tambov @ $3.50
Prices from BetEasy as no VHL on Pinnacle or Betfair
SHL (Sweden)
15:15 Malmo @ $2.30
*18:00 Farjestad BK @
*18:00 Brynas @
NHL (USA)
19:05 Ottawa Senators @ $2.66
NLA (Switzerland)
19:45 Davos @ $3.90
* Missed due to sleeping in.
Typical that they both won 
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted
Todays US bets:
HOCKEY
AHL
01:00 Grand Rapids Griffins @ $2.24
01:00 Hartford Wolfpack @ $2.36
01:05 Binghamton Devils @ $2.52
04:00 Manitoba Moose @ $2.28
Prices from BetEasy as no AHL on Pinnacle or Betfair
NHL
01:05 Florida Panthers @ $2.20
01:05 New Jersey Devils @ $2.22
01:05 New York Islanders @ $2.27
BASKETBALL
NBA
01:10 Detroit Pistons @ $2.92
01:10 Brooklyn Nets @ $3.50
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted
A much better day. 4/7 for hockey with 2 games lost in OT.
Todays European bets:
HOCKEY
DEL (Germany)
14:00 Krefeld @ $2.64
Extraliga (Czech Republic)
15:30 Karlovy Vary @ Bet not placed due to inopportune computer crash. 
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted
Todays US bets:
NFL
19:00 Baltimore Ravens @ $2.34
19:00 Cincinnati Bengals@ $2.74
19:00 Jacksonville Jaguars @ $3.00
19:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ $2.78
02:20 Los Angeles Chargers @ $2.54
ACCA
19:00 Houston Texans
19:00 Chicago Bears
19:00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22:25 New England Patriots @ $7.58
3/4 gets my stake returned as a bonus bet
HOCKEY
AHL
21:05 Providence Bruins @ $2.28
23:00 Texas Stars @ $2.26
Prices from BetEasy as no AHL on Pinnacle or Betfair
NHL
21:05 Anaheim Ducks @ $2.72
00:05 New York Rangers @ $2.36
01:05 Chicago Blackhawks @ $2.38
01:05 Detroit Red Wings @ $2.46
BASKETBALL
NBA
00:10 Miami Heat @ $2.60
01:10 Dallas Mavericks @ $2.46
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted
8/13 plus my money back on the acca makes it a very nice session 
Todays European bets:
HOCKEY
VHL (Russia)
16:30 Sarov @ $3.52
KHL (Russia)
17:00 Kunlun @ $3.47
Prices sourced from Pinnacle
Liiga (Finland)
17:30 Assat @ $3.84
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Marathon, unless otherwise noted
Slept in again. Australia is a great country and a wonderful place to live, however the time zone can make it difficult, particularly for European betting.
Even though it would have gone 0/3, the model still achieved it's aim of highlighting competitive dogs as 2 games went to penalties, and the other was finalised with a last minute empty net goal.
Todays US bets:
BASKETBALL
NBA
01:10 Detroit Pistons @ $2.26
01:40 Denver Nuggets @ $3.60
ACCA
01:40 Brooklyn Nets
01:40 New York Knicks
02:10 Houston Rockets
02:10 Los Angeles Clippers @ $10.83
NFL
02:15 Washington Redskins @ $3.30
HOCKEY
NHL
02:05 Buffalo Sabres @ $2.64
AHL
04:00 San Diego Gulls @ $2.42
Prices from BetEasy as no AHL on Pinnacle or Betfair
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted
Was planning on having the European session off so I could implement v1.2, but hadn't missed any bets so decided to place the rest ....... and very happy I did.
Almost choked on my breakfast when I checked the results.
Todays European bets:
HOCKEY
Extraliga (Czech Republic)
17:00 Mlada Boleslav @ $2.44
KHL (Russia)
17:30 Traktor Chelyabinsk @ $4.20
17:30 Nizhny Novgorod @ $5.80
BASKETBALL
Super Ligi (Turkey)
16:00 Galatasaray @ $3.10
18:15 Besiktas @ $5.30
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted
Todays US bets:
BASKETBALL
NBA
01:40 Orlando Magic @ $2.38
HOCKEY
NHL
01:35 Detroit Red Wings @ $2.68
01:35 Ottawa Senators @ $2.75
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted
Todays European bets:
HOCKEY
KHL (Russia)
13:30 Sibir Novosibirsk @ $2.58
VHL (Russia)
14:30 Chelmet Chelyabinsk @ $2.69
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Marathon, unless otherwise noted
Novosibirsk's victory was most welcome as it broke a run of 8 straight OT losses. 
Interesting eksperiment, Lazza61, can you give an update on yr winrate for yr 1.2 version. Does yr model Include different betsized on different bets, or do you bet the same amount every game?
Todays US bets:
BASKETBALL
NBA
01:40 Atlanta Hawks @ $2.46
02:10 Charlotte Hornets @ $2.80
02:10 Dallas Mavericks @ $3.03
04:40 San Antonio Spurs @ $4.40
HOCKEY
AHL
01:00 San Antonio Rampage @ $2.62
01:00 Hartford Wolf Pack @ $2.24
01:05 Utica Comets @ $2.26
03:30 Manitoba Moose @ $2.70
Prices from BetEasy as no AHL on Pinnacle or Betfair
NHL
04:35 Chicago Blackhawks @ $2.32
04:35 Carolina Hurricanes @ $2.38
Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted
Bad day for dogs in general with only 2 winning out of 19 matches that qualified by price. NBA was a clean sweep of favourites.
Hockey 4/13 S/R 30.77% Profit/Loss -$4.09 ROI -31.46%
Basketball 3/7 S/R 42.85% Profit/Loss +$3.38 ROI +48.28%
OVERALL 7/20 S/R 35% Profit/Loss -$0.71 ROI -3.55%
