(non)OFFICIAL Sports betting Post a Pick thread

Originally posted by reggie123
Can i make NBA predictions in this tread :f_love:?

Sure, you can!

Okey. i just post who's gona win in my opinion, i dont post reasons why i think one or the other team wins, it takes to much time, unless someone wants to know.
Todays games:
Golden State-Cleveland
Denver-Orlando
Washington-Atlanta
Oklahoma City-Brooklyn
Philadelphia-Toronto
LA-Memphis
Detroit-Milwaukee
Charlotte-Minnesota
Dallas-New Orleans
San Antonio-Los Angeles

Interesting eksperiment, Lazza61, can you give an update on yr winrate for yr 1.2 version. Does yr model Include different betsized on different bets, or do you bet the same amount every game?

I will start to post an update at the bottom of each session, but please remember that it is a tiny sample size.

At the moment I am just betting level stakes in H2H markets, but ultimately there will be value in other bet types. For instance, it may be a bit uncomfortable and low percentage to bet on rank underdogs (<$5), but then there can be value at the line.

Having just come of a 0-8 run in hockey OT/SO games, betting on the 60 minute tie may be more profitable as average prices at @$4.50, I would only have to maintain a strike rate of 22% to be breakeven and I'm certain I could achieve a comfortably higher percentage.

Hockey 4/7 S/R 57.14% Profit/Loss $1.91 ROI +27.28%
Basketball 3/3 S/R 100% Profit/Loss +$7.38 ROI +369%

OVERALL 7/10 S/R 70% Profit/Loss + $9.29 ROI +92.90%

Pass mark is 50% Strike Rate and 25% ROI, although I will gladly accept anything above that.

Originally posted by reggie123
Can i make NBA predictions in this tread :f_love:?

The more the merrier and GL

Todays European/Australasian bets:

BASKETBALL

NBL (Australia)

09:50 Perth Wildcats @ $3.10

CBA (China)

12:35 Qingdao @ $3.40

Prices sourced from Bet365

EUROLEAGUE

20:30 Khimki Moscow @ $2.85

Prices sourced from Bet365

HOCKEY

KHL (Russia)

14:30 Traktor Chelyabinsk @ $3.25

Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted

Hockey 4/14 S/R 30.77% Profit/Loss -$5.09 ROI -36.35%
Basketball 4/10 S/R 40% Profit/Loss +$3.78 ROI +37.88%

OVERALL 8/24 S/R 33.33% Profit/Loss -$1.31 ROI -5.45%

Results based on $1 bets after betfair commission, where applicable

I fix my posts next day, green means i whas right and red..not so.
New York-Boston
Phoenix-Portland
Houston -Utah

Todays US bets:

HOCKEY

NHL

01:05 Detroit Red Wings @ $3.90
01:35 Boston Bruins @ $2.62

Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted

Hockey 5/16 S/R 31.25% Profit/Loss -$3.34 ROI -20.87%
Basketball 4/10 S/R 40% Profit/Loss +$3.78 ROI +37.80%

OVERALL 9/26 S/R 34.61% Profit/Loss +$0.44 ROI +1.69%

Results based on $1 bets after betfair commission, where applicable

Todays European/Asian bets:

BASKETBALL

CBA (China)

12:35 Guangzhou @ $3.92

HOCKEY

VHL (Russia)

14:30 CSK VVS @ $2.55

Prices sourced from Bet365

Extraliga (Czech Republic)

17:30 Pardubice @ $2.75
18:00 Vitkovice @ $2.80
18:00 Mlada Boleslav @ $2.80

Prices sourced from Bet365

Liiga (Finland)

17:30 KalPa @ $2.90

Prices sourced from Bet365

DEL (Germany)

19:30 Straubing Tigers @ $2.40
19:30 Dusseldorf @ $2.65

Prices sourced from Bet365

NLA (Switzerland)

19:45 Ambri-Piotta @ $2.89

Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted

Hockey 9/24 S/R 37.5% Profit/Loss -$0.84 ROI -3.5%
Basketball 4/11 S/R 36.36% Profit/Loss +$2.78 ROI +25.27%

OVERALL 13/35 S/R 37.14% Profit/Loss +$1.94 ROI +5.54%

Results based on $1 bets after betfair commission, where applicable

Denver-Charlotte
Philadelphia-Detroit
Indiana-Orlando
Toronto-Brooklyn
Sacramento-Cleveland
Oklahoma City-Chicago
Memphis-New Orleans
Los Angeles-San Antonio
[b]Miami-Phoenix
Golden State-Milwaukee

gogo both of you !!! wanna see more. I can't believe this thread actually got this popular and people still posting in it when i made it. Im super happy. and i wanna see the results of both of your works.

How nice would it be to create a program that would make all the calculations itself and you could just say "i wanna bet on what it says" ♦ haha this is a mini version of it imo ♦

Todays US bets:

HOCKEY

AHL

01:00 Binghamton Devils @ $2.70
01:05 Hershey Bears @ $2.80
03:05 Ontario Reign @ $2.45

Prices sourced from Bet365

NHL

02:05 St Louis Blues @ $2.96

BASKETBALL

NBA

02:10 Memphis Grizzlies @ $3.10

Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted

Hockey 10/28 S/R 35.71% Profit/Loss -$1.98 ROI -7.07%
Basketball 5/12 S/R 41.66% Profit/Loss +$4.77 ROI +39.75%

OVERALL 15/40 S/R 37.50% Profit/Loss +$2.79 ROI +6.97%

Results based on $1 bets after betfair commission, where applicable

02:10 Memphis Grizzlies @

why?

Hey reggie123,

Originally posted by reggie123

02:10 Memphis Grizzlies @

why?

My model is purely mathematical. As this is a test, it would be unwise to deviate from the model as it would make it too difficult to measure whether the model is or can be profitable.

Also it is not designed to pick every winner. It is designed to get as close to (or above) 50% Strike rate which would ensure a healthy ROI. There is no cap atm on high odds, but at the low end, I don't accept odds under $2.30 ($2.35 at Betfair to allow for commission).

Regards

Laz

Todays European/Asian bets:

BASKETBALL

CBA (China)

12:35 Qingdao @ $8.25

Prices sourced from Bet365

Super Ligi (Turkey)

15:30 Buyukceknece @ $5.40

LKL (Lithuania)

16:20 Alytaus Dzukija @ $5.03

BBL (Germany)

18:00 Vechta @ $3.60

Prices sourced from Bet365

ACB (Spain)

18:00 MoraBanc Andorra @ $3.65

Prices sourced from Bet365

LNB (France)

18:30 Boulazac @ $2.55*
20:00 Gravelines-Dunkerque @ $3.55
20:00 Levallois @ $2.45*

*Prices sourced from Bet365

HOCKEY

KHL (Russia)

12:30 Spartak Moscow @ $3.00

Liiga (Finland)

16:00 IFK Helsinki @ $3.20
17:30 Assat @ $2.80

NLA (Switzerland)

19:45 Fribourg @ $3.22

Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted

Hockey 11/32 S/R 34.37% Profit/Loss -$2.87 ROI -8.96%
Basketball 7/20 S/R 35% Profit/Loss +$3.66 ROI +18.3%

OVERALL 18/52 S/R 34.61% Profit/Loss +$0.79 ROI +1.51

Results based on $1 bets after betfair commission, where applicable

Tough night, lots of surprises.
Houston-Dallas
Sacramento-Indiana
Denver-Atlanta
Washington-Cleveland
Brooklyn-New York
Boston-Chicago
Los Angeles-Memphis
Minnesota-Portland
Miami-LA

Todays US bets:

HOCKEY

AHL

03:05 Ontario Reign @ $2.45

Prices sourced from Bet365

NHL

01:05 New York Rangers @ $2.70

Prices sourced from Bet365

BASKETBALL

NBA

01:10 Sacramento Kings @ $3.00
01:40 Cleveland Cavaliers @ $3.85
04:40 Miami Heat @ $5.70

Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted

Hockey 12/34 S/R 35.29% Profit/Loss -$2.17 ROI -6.38%
Basketball 9/23 S/R 39.13% Profit/Loss +$10.82 ROI +47.04%

OVERALL 21/57 S/R 36.84% Profit/Loss +$8.65 ROI +15.17%

Results based on $1 bets after betfair commission, where applicable

Originally posted by Lazza61

NHL

01:05 New York Rangers @ $2.70

I'm surprised you didn't bet for LA kings?

Hey partane,

Fair point. They weren't far of being a bet.

I'm still operating off a small sample, particularly for home underdogs, so in the future with more data to analyse, they may well be a certain bet in hindsight.

They also scored low on their home record this season which is poor, which may also have affected it.

Cheers

Laz

Todays European/Asian/US bets:

BASKETBALL

CBA (China)

13:00 Fujian @ $10.75

VTB (Russia)

14:00 Astana @ $7.20

LKL (Lithuania)

16:20 Rytas @ $5.30

Lega A (Italy)

18:45 Sassari @ $3.00

HOCKEY

KHL (Russia)

13:00 Kunlun @ $3.60
15:30 Salavat Ufa @ $5.20

VHL (Russia)

15:00 Sarov @ $4.50
15:00 Tambov @ $4.00

Prices sourced from Bet365

Extraliga (Czech Republic)

16:00 Litvinov @ $2.44

GRIDIRON

NFL

19:00 Miami Dolphins @ $4.80
19:00 Washington Redskins @ $2.52

Times are CET
Prices sourced from Betfair, unless otherwise noted

Hockey 13/39 S/R 33.33% Profit/Loss -$4.73 ROI -12.12%
Basketball 11/25 S/R 44.00% Profit/Loss +$16.71 ROI +66.84%
Gridiron 1/2 50.00% Profit/Loss +$2.61 ROI +130.50%

OVERALL 25/66 S/R 37.87% Profit/Loss +$14.59 ROI +22.10%

Results based on $1 bets after betfair commission, where applicable

That's a lot of action. GL Lazza61 today with your bets

Last night 2/8 is new level of bad. ♦
New Orleans-Detroit
Milwaukee-Toronto
Utah-San Antonio
Charlotte-New York