[Closed] downswing real or perceived?

I understand the laws of probability entirely. My argument supporting the idea of using free money tables to balance these periods of Badbeats etc was to highlight my point, that it isnt a mathmatical thing, thereofore it isnt a given that you have to lose during this period of a 'Downswing'.

It seems to me that my original point in this thread has actually been backed up by everyones elses comments.

A downswing isnt a real phenonenom indictated by a period of evening out of the maths e.g all the 10/20% times AA is supposed to lose happen at once to even out the long periods where AA won 100% of the time (to use a very basic example). If this was the case you could theoretically ride this period out on play money tables. Nor is it all the badbeats and suckouts happening at once either, as again, this could be countered by playing at play money tables until the status quo was back to normal.

And obviously a downswing has nothing to do with being card dead for long periods either as a good player will still make a profit given the cards he is dealt.

The biggest point is that The overall consensus of everyone is that the best way to counter a downswing is to take a break away from the tables. Then this means a downswing is actually a psychological phenononem, that lasts for an unusually long period of time. So like a long period of tilt or long periods of just not playing very good poker.

Im not saying players use the excuse of 'Im in a downswing' to disguise bad play but that they may too often get caught into this mindset of being in a downswing and not actually analysing their game and looking for ways in which they could of played these hands better or limited how much they lost in them.

I mean how many people will complain that their Kings continually lost to hands like A5 etc, although the board came something like A6Q109 and they still fired all three rounds or called check raises on the flop and large turn/river bets then owe this loss to a bad beat due to being in a downswing? Thats not a bad beat, its bad play. Yes we would lost the hand no matter what we did, we did have control over whether we lost a little or lost a stack?

The point is I think we should all take ownership of our mindsets and not let a so called downswing affect the way we play?

To me its simple, Either a dowswing is a mathmatical evening out of probabilties which a player has no control of. But we all know that isnt the case.

So it has to be then a mental state, probably bought on by a few badbeats over a period of time. This is something we do have control over?

So is there really such a thing as a downsing? You see what im saying?

You don't see the point, I think. As I said before, a downswing isn't some kind of curse or TIME PERIOD (every friday 13th your KKs will be cracked by QQs).

A downswing is a fact. It's just a series of bad luck (variance on the unprofitable side for you).

It's not like the economical crisis, which is going on now. You can't tell anyone, 'I won't play today because this month I'm on a downswing'.

You never know when the downswing will come and when it will pass, because it's not something you can touch or feel. It's just coincidental. Sooner or later you will loose with AA 3 times in a row, that's math, that's probabilty, when it happens you will be able to say - I played well, guess it WAS just a downswing.

There is such thing as downswing. The point of taking a break is to relax your mind, no, it won't change you luck, but after loosing hand after hand due to bad beats/coolers you start to play poorly, then every good player will take a break, but after that, the downswing still can continue. While it's not that likely that you will loose AA vs any random hand AI preflop 10 times in a row, it's the same probability to loose 10th time as it was 1st time. Meh, no need to explain actually, just wait and you will experience it on your own.

Hi Hackett77,

Originally posted by Hackett77
Isnt a downswing really just a mental and and emotional phase player goes through, perhaps initiated and/or compounded by a string of bad results?

What you're thinking of here is called tilt, generally a downswing is when a player loses a lot of buyins, or loses over a long period of time. Downswings can lead to tilt, but tilt isn't necessarily the same thing as a downswing, if you play while you are tilting, you can let leaks slip into your game, you could still win in the short term but its best to try fix your leaks as soon as you notice them so you don't lose in the longrun.

Shouldnt a profitable player still be able to make a profit even when the cards dont come and flops dont hit?

If you don't let the deck affect your ability to play then yes, poker isn't about winning hands constantly. As long as you are limiting your losses by not making mistakes when you're card dead, the good hands will come eventually.

Also, assuming that it is purely all the 10% times Aces lose etc running in one long sequence,why not then play fake money games for xxxx hands until this streak is ridden out?

Surely the poker gods dont differentiate between real and fake money hands?

There is no way of determining how long a downswing will last, so theres no point going to the play money tables to try n get rid of it. If you like to play for play money fair enough. The best thing to do when you can't take downswings is having a break or reading some articles to refresh your mind.

Isnt a downswing really an excuse for bad play/results whilst not emotional fit to play due to some bad hands?

No, you can hit a downswing even when playing perfectly, its called variance.

Regards,
Sarah

Interesting statement on the Poker Strategy Article on Professional Attitude

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/psychology/135/

If you want to start playing poker profitably, then you should be aware of the following statement:

There is no downswing in poker - only poorly played hands

Originally posted by Hackett77
Interesting statement on the Poker Strategy Article on Professional Attitude

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/psychology/135/

If you want to start playing poker profitably, then you should be aware of the following statement:

There is no downswing in poker - only poorly played hands

You get all in preflop with KK vs maniac holding KQo and he hits straight, second hand vs same person in a row you get dealt KK again all in preflop, this time he has a real hand and it's pocket aces, you flop a full house vs another person, money goes in, villain has an overpair, river saves him out because he hits his two outer, but meh, let's go further. You hold AK in 3bet pot flop top two pair, money goes in on flop, river gives villain flush. Then you flop a set just to find out that villain floped higher set, so now you must think that you suck and should fold sets if they are not top sets and abviously not on dangerous boards. Again, you flop a set, the only hands that got you beat is higher set and 53 you get money in, villain shows you 53. Then you get your TPTK cracked four times in a row by rivered second pair, not for full stacks obviously but still loss again. Then get coolered in raised pot flush vs higher flush. So you just lost aproximately 8 stacks sure it's not much but lets imagine that next day same things happen again and you're down 16 stacks or so. According to your logic all these hands were played poorly and so you should change your play - fold kings preflop, fold sets etc.

Right now I had AA losing from KT, KK losing from KJ, QQ lose from J7, etc. and I'm definitely on a downswing. Lost 50BI, already 20 BI back though.

The article mentioned raises good points but the opening statement of 'there are no downswings' is flawed.

Being a mathematical game, relying on probablility, you are bound to suffer natural downswings. As others have said, if you put every bad beat down to bad play then you could well find yourself not playing the best hands that exist in poker.

Obviously, not all downswings are down to mathematical probability - for sure, my recent downswing was nothing other than bad play but i fully understand the maths behind the game and natural downswings caused by you being on the wrong side of the laws of probability are entirely possible even when you've played the perfect game.

Originally posted by NightFrostaSS

Originally posted by Hackett77
Interesting statement on the Poker Strategy Article on Professional Attitude

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/psychology/135/

If you want to start playing poker profitably, then you should be aware of the following statement:

There is no downswing in poker - only poorly played hands

You get all in preflop with KK vs maniac holding KQo and he hits straight, second hand vs same person in a row you get dealt KK again all in preflop, this time he has a real hand and it's pocket aces, you flop a full house vs another person, money goes in, villain has an overpair, river saves him out because he hits his two outer, but meh, let's go further. You hold AK in 3bet pot flop top two pair, money goes in on flop, river gives villain flush. Then you flop a set just to find out that villain floped higher set, so now you must think that you suck and should fold sets if they are not top sets and abviously not on dangerous boards. Again, you flop a set, the only hands that got you beat is higher set and 53 you get money in, villain shows you 53. Then you get your TPTK cracked four times in a row by rivered second pair, not for full stacks obviously but still loss again. Then get coolered in raised pot flush vs higher flush. So you just lost aproximately 8 stacks sure it's not much but lets imagine that next day same things happen again and you're down 16 stacks or so. According to your logic all these hands were played poorly and so you should change your play - fold kings preflop, fold sets etc.

Where have i said anything to make you assume my logic would mean that any of the above is down to bad play or that you should play them any different.

I have never mentioned playing a specific hand a certain way.

Ive only questioned logic that has then been confirmed here too.

My point was to determine whether a downswing is real or perceived.

The arguments to suggest it is real have since been discountered by the same people more or less.

(1) Its not a Mathmatical phenonenom as some people suggest - this is clear otherwise it could be ridden out on play tables.

But more importantly

(2)The Advice to 'Take time away from tables and study" must be rubbish as that can only work if its something to do with the players mental state.

your examples are badbeats yes and maybe they couldnt of been avoided but does that really truly happen the way you have described when after analyse, every single hand you could not of found a better way to of played at least some of them or read what was going on in some of the cases??

The point, I think too much emphasis is put on this dreaded downswing and while yes there are periods of unlucky badbeats but I rather think in the majority of cases these losses of large multiple buy ins are more to do with bad play and tilt as opposed to totaly perfect play but unlucky rivers.

Plus what about all the times we can win with our rubbish hands due to reads on players and out ability to outplay them. Surely we cant purely rely on our profit coming from when we have great hands and great boards. if we do then really we have no edge on anyone and everyone is in exactly the same position and relying on their luck holding out.

I mean Like I said above, I lost with KK 5 times over the weekend and yet was never more than 1-2 a bI Down the whole weekend. Maybe sometimes players can get into a mindset of "im getting my money in here" once they see their whole cards then cant get out of it once they board comes or 4/5 players enter the pot. So they still push the flop regardless of what had happended post flop as they are in that frame of mind then cite a bad turn or river card as the reason for their lose when in reality, they probably could of folded the Kings on the flop as the action indicated that they were probably no good? Or fail to keep the pot small despite it being unlikely they were ahead just because they had pocker kings and felt they deserved to win with them?

This is quite simple.

There is such thing as a downswing.

There is definately such thing as tilt.

It is suggested to take a break when you are on a downswing (a downswing is a undefined amount of poker hands that have been lost after investing chips into the pot while being ahead in the hand). The reason for this suggestion is that downswings tend to toy with players minds which causes them to go on tilt (tilting is the act of playing hands in spots and betting chips in places where a player where generally avoid because of an emotional low caused by past events inside or outside of poker).

The reason the article says there is no such thing as a "downswing" is because each hand is independant of the last, and strong players will play each hand independant from any past hands. The problem is players bring emotions from past INDEPENDANT hands into a current hand and make a -EV decision. The problem compounds and multiplies the losses from the unlucky hands.

As for the two suggestions. Play money creates leaks in games. It is almost impossible to play proper poker and win with play money because no matter what hand you have you will have multiple callers and AA is not going to be 7 other all ins. Probability cannot be waited out on these tables.

Taking a break is most definately the better way to deal with this. It is basically a stop loss while giving your poker engine (brain) a break. This stops us from making those bad decisions that we would otherwise never make.

As for the strongest players in the world, even they are effected by losses and random chance. The difference between them and the player who goes on a massive downswing that is induced by tilt is that they can look beyond the loss of money and the chances of the other guy hitting thier card and move on to the next hand knowing it is independant of the previous.

To finish this off I will tell you about a table i sat at on sunday watching Tom Dwan and Gus Hansen play at. Tom Dwan got his money in ahead 6 times that I watched all in. All 6 times Gus Hansen was at least a 70/30 underdog. Gus won 5 of the 6 hands and felted Tom Dwan for 150k. To make matters worse they had a bunch of railbirds who would spam chat everytime Gus won a hand sayin that "Durrrrr" sucks. This is a 150k downswing that Dwan played absolutely perfectly through. No time during this 150k downswing did Dwan make a mistake.

And whenever I have had a day when I have lost money, Even if during that day i have suffered some badbeats that doesnt account for my losses and is usually made up by the pots I play well in but really have no right having.

Personally the large portion of the losses that day are usually due to me playing more cavalier than usual or at the wrong times, most likely because of the bad beat, which makes me think its a pyscological thing rather than and inevitable period of bad luck that we have to accept and deal with.

I really think we can choose to not accept this things and counter these periods by concentrating more and constantly looking for ways of how we could of avoided losing so much in these hands, if not being able to change the fact we lost them?

Originally posted by Hackett77
(1) Its not a Mathmatical phenonenom as some people suggest - this is clear otherwise it could be ridden out on play tables.

Not sure if i understand you correctly here so won't comment.

(2)The Advice to 'Take time away from tables and study" must be rubbish as that can only work if its something to do with the players mental state.

It's because noone can play perfect while loosing so taking a break is needed to get back on track, but it still doesn't mean that he was playing bad when he lost.

your examples are badbeats yes and maybe they couldnt of been avoided but does that really truly happen the way you have described when after analyse, every single hand you could not of found a better way to of played at least some of them or read what was going on in some of the cases??

Yes, i am pretty sure that the hands were player ok. + Money went in good most of the time, the times they didn't were simply coolers. If you never experienced longer period of negative variation you are very lucky. But you will sooner or later,, if you play a lot.

The point, I think too much emphasis is put on this dreaded downswing and while yes there are periods of unlucky badbeats but I rather think in the majority of cases these losses of large multiple buy ins are more to do with bad play and tilt as opposed to totaly perfect play but unlucky rivers.

Yes, probably in majority of cases it is, but that doesn't mean that there are no such thing as downswing.

Plus what about all the times we can win with our rubbish hands due to reads on players and out ability to outplay them. Surely we cant purely rely on our profit coming from when we have great hands and great boards. if we do then really we have no edge on anyone and everyone is in exactly the same position and relying on their luck holding out.

NSD winnings for TAGs can't compensate SD loss.

I mean Like I said above, I lost with KK 5 times over the weekend and yet was never more than 1-2 a bI Down the whole weekend.

That doesn't mean that you won't be down by more in the future.

Maybe sometimes players can get into a mindset of "im getting my money in here" once they see their whole cards then cant get out of it once they board comes or 4/5 players enter the pot. So they still push the flop regardless of what had happended post flop as they are in that frame of mind then cite a bad turn or river card as the reason for their lose when in reality, they probably could of folded the Kings on the flop as the action indicated that they were probably no good? Or fail to keep the pot small despite it being unlikely they were ahead just because they had pocker kings and felt they deserved to win with them?

You answered it yourself - SOMETIMES. There are people that tilt off their bankroll, but that doesn't mean that real downswing is non existent.

double post. ♦

Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
double post. ♦

[x] Noob

I have read this entire thread as i started my $50 one week ago got 30% roi and reached silver with $78 in my BR sweet i thought then for no reason at all i started dropping results,

I think what started as a down swing may have made me play faster i.e. worse looser whatever tilt if you like, what i mean to say is i think the two can go hand in hand if you let them I am really trying not to let the fish get me mad but, it seems unreal that the relentless beatings and bad luck just wont stop after a week of really good play and results

i need some calming advice sometimes i like the videos on here the guys get sucked out on a say "but thats ok" as if they sucked out I want that attitude

I am now back to square one in terms of my bankroll and starting again in the 1$ sng crap shoots where coin flips are unavoidable it seems like a really long road to the next level!!!!!!!!

Originally posted by highsocietypro
I have read this entire thread as i started my $50 one week ago got 30% roi and reached silver with $78 in my BR sweet i thought then for no reason at all i started dropping results,

I think what started as a down swing may have made me play faster i.e. worse looser whatever tilt if you like, what i mean to say is i think the two can go hand in hand if you let them I am really trying not to let the fish get me mad but, it seems unreal that the relentless beatings and bad luck just wont stop after a week of really good play and results

i need some calming advice sometimes i like the videos on here the guys get sucked out on a say "but thats ok" as if they sucked out I want that attitude

I am now back to square one in terms of my bankroll and starting again in the 1$ sng crap shoots where coin flips are unavoidable it seems like a really long road to the next level!!!!!!!!

after 350 sngs my roi was 33% , now after 1100 it's 15%. That's poker

"why not let the maths even itself out at micro stakes or play money."

do you understand maths?

what do you mean it is going to even out?

if i buy the lottery today, i have 1/14 million chance of winning the jack pot. If I win the jack pot and buys the lottery again, I still have 1/14 million chance of winning it. I am not less or more likely to win it than anyone else who buy the lottery. Nor does it mean if you buy the lottery 14 million times, you will definitely win it once. (rather than none or twice or 3 times)

every poker hand you play can be seen to be indepent trials.

they say variance evens out over time, because from a statical point of view, your variance decreases with your sample size. like if you take a man from the entire UK population and measure his height and say it is the average height of men from UK is not very accurate. If you take 100 men at random, you are more likely to get a better estimate of the average height, but the fact variance wears off over time does not mean you will have better luck after a string of bad luck. (thought it might effect your play) They are independent...

Originally posted by jupiterthegreat999
"why not let the maths even itself out at micro stakes or play money."

do you understand maths?

what do you mean it is going to even out?

if i buy the lottery today, i have 1/14 million chance of winning the jack pot. If I win the jack pot and buys the lottery again, I still have 1/14 million chance of winning it. I am not less or more likely to win it than anyone else who buy the lottery. Nor does it mean if you buy the lottery 14 million times, you will definitely win it once. (rather than none or twice or 3 times)

every poker hand you play can be seen to be indepent trials.

they say variance evens out over time, because from a statical point of view, your variance decreases with your sample size. like if you take a man from the entire UK population and measure his height and say it is the average height of men from UK is not very accurate. If you take 100 men at random, you are more likely to get a better estimate of the average height, but the fact variance wears off over time does not mean you will have better luck after a string of bad luck. (thought it might effect your play) They are independent...

yes of course I understand maths, Do you understand the concepting of reading a statement before you reply to it?

my statement re: let this downswing even itsself out on play tables was to sure that a downswing isnt to do with the maths of poker, giving more weight to my argument that a downswing is psyhcological brought on by a few bad beats and then compounded by resulting bad play.

It seems that everybody actually agrees this actually, whethere they realise it or not.

A downswing, by definition, is real rather than percieved.

It is often confused, or mixed with bad play or tilt, which may have the OP stumped?

Separate the concepts of tilt/bad play with that of a downswing

As this is a poker forum, I'm sure we all know what tilt is. Making poor, unreasoned descisions due to being emotionally charged in a hand...

A downswing is much different. It's a period of time where the value a player achieves from the pots they play is significantly less that the expected value from playing the same hands and situations.

A downswing can cause tilt, but tilt can't cause a downswing.

I have so much more to say, especially about your point that a downswing isn't a mathamatical phenomenon, which it absolutely is, but I am tired and have work in the morning.

Look into this more later...

Originally posted by Hackett77

my statement re: let this downswing even itsself out on play tables was to sure that a downswing isnt to do with the maths of poker, giving more weight to my argument that a downswing is psyhcological brought on by a few bad beats and then compounded by resulting bad play

As it has been said before, playing on play money tables wont help your downswings one bit. (Just as playing fake lotery alongside with proper lotery, wont increase your chances of winning it.) BUT, that doesnt mean that downswings aren't a mathematical problem.

jupiterthegreat999 already explained this to you (and many before, but he was the latest), but ill try it with some different wording.

Downswings are not in your control. You cannot predict them, thus you also cannot know when it ends or if its close to ending, if its still in effect, etc. It is just an expression to describe a loosing streak of properly played hands (that will in most cases bring you money) with bad results.

When i say a streak (and this is an important fact), i do not mean hands 1 through 1000, i mean random hands in a several hundred (thousand) set of hands, that should bring you the most money per hand, but instead make you loose the most. And because of the fact that these hands arent consecutive as in 1,2,3,4,5..., but they still happen closely together without any bigger pots won and winning just smaller pots and blinds, you cannot mathematically awoid them, because you have no idea when they'll show up (playing on play money tables is therefore useless). Thus smaller downswings, larger downswings or just pure old normal variation. But the longer ones will will inevitably bring your bankroll down.

I do not argue the fact that most likely alot more than the average downswings are wrongly noted, but that doesnt mean that they dont exist.

I also fully agree with the fact that in a downswing your psychological mindset will get threatened and thus taking breaks is recommended, as is studying more, talking about it and other stuff. But this is not to help you magically break the downswing. It is to keep your mind together, to keep you focused and confident in your play, so that you do not hit tilt and start playing badly. If you can keep your focus and mind strong through a month of loosing sessions playing the same poker as you would while winning for a month straight than good for you. But it will not remove downswings or reduce the impact they will have on your bankroll. It just means that you wont hit tilt, which is a great ability to posess.

All in all, downswings are real. They may be emphasised to much, but they are a big danger for any serious poker player so i don't see that as a problem. Each player has its own ways of handling it, but at the end of the day there is no magic stick that will help you break it. Everyone just has to ride it out, somehow.