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Battling it with Mid-Pair

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Qwetzalcoatl
Joined: 17.07.2011

Hi again,

I have one more interesting hand to contribute today. Preflop and flop are quite standard. I do have quite aggressive image on the table.

Turn: Given the check on the flop, I don't think he has Qx or OESD. More like 6h5h+, J7+, 97+, KT, T8, 8h6h, 88, 99 or some random cards that he just wants to take a shot at the pot with. I have some 45% equity against this range excluding the random cards. OK call I guess.
River: Here I am perplexed. Why would he bet so small with a completed straight? Why would he bet at all with hands like 2 pairs or set? So I believe he bets with like single pairs, busted flush draws and the random bluffs. So I call. Now, I have also calculated my equity against the entire range except the two pairs, sets and random stuff (thus including also the straights) and I have some 39%, so again, if my range estimation is correct, I am making a profitable call again.

What do you guys think? Do you agree with the range estimations given the information after flop? Would you play the hand any differently?

Curious to hear. Thanks!

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 5 players

UTG (Hero): $5.81 (116 bb)
CO: $5.10 (102 bb)
BU: $4.77 (95 bb)
SB: $5.43 (109 bb)
BB: $5.22 (104 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with K J
Hero raises to $0.15, 3 players fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32) J 9 Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.32) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

River: ($0.82) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

Total pot: $1.92 (Rake: $0.08)

Spoiler

Showdown:
BB shows 6 4 (high card, Queen)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 40%, Flop: 2%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

UTG (Hero) shows K J (a pair of Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 60%, Flop: 98%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

UTG (Hero) wins $1.84


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3 replies
Nochmals
Joined: 11.09.2009

indeed curios

wouldnt play it otherwise


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

Well, seems like he had enough bluffs ;)


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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

I would expect him to either bet less or overbet the pot on the river as a value bet with a made hand. So I think the call is correct, he will have a lesser jack, TT-55 and busted draws the majority of the time.

Without stats it's really hard to talk about ranges - I would never put him on what he had with the general population reads :).


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