Flush vs shove on the river

Call every day and live with it. The flush comes from backdoor and he can totally shove 9x (maybe even 4x because it's NL2 lol).

I think the biggest mistake is opening UTG J9s in NL2.

J9s should probably not go into a 4x UTG open raise range.
river is a sigh spot, i doubt that you win over 50%, but remember that you only need 30%. against unknown, i don't fold and i don't think too much about it, it doesn't matter that much.

what hands do i expect to win against? T9 and 9x, also some fish might sometimes decide that the board is "scary" and randomly jam something.

J9's is a completely standard open from UTG at NL2 simply because players don't 3bet enough IP vs UTG. Size is the mistake, it should be 3x. It is ok to open J9's from UTG in most games.
It is correct to 3 barrel because you improve on every street and it makes sense to get value, mostly at NL2.
Notice weaker aces and offsuit aces should not be in BTN calling range vs UTG often.
There are some AT's and AQ's in his range but you lose to those and he can represent them. KT's, KQ's also beats you.
You block AJ's and JT's. So, you're crushed by his value range OTR.
But I can't fold this either ♦

I think this is a standard open pre but I would open it to just 3bb.
I guess sometimes I might put this hand in my check raising range but betting is probably fine too.

River is a bit difficult. River raises are very very strong and in my experience if the flush hits and you get raised, even a baby flush is not strong enough to profitably call. However, this is not a baby flush.
But then again can villain even have weaker flushes? Many of them are blocked.

"When the flush hits" doesn't always mean the same thing. Here it's a backdoor flush in a spot where he can have a straight. Come on.

Yes but I have been calling too many times with a small flush against a nut flush, with a nut flush vs a full house, with a straight or set vs a flush and so on, that I don't likely believe he will raise a straight when flush is possible.

I have told this before and will tell many times in the future (because I think this is a good example) that I once filtered my database and checked how I was doing vs river raises when I call river raises with hands that are 2pairs or better, and I was surprised to see that I was losing like -1800bb/100. I never would have guessed I lose so much because I thought I'm still quite tight vs river raises.

I totally get what you mean and I think it makes sense, but that is just my experience telling me to be very careful here.

Just out of interest, it would be nice if you could check your winrate when calling a river raise with sets+ or with straights+. And I don't mean to offend you with that, honestly my sample size wasn't huge and I would like to see the same stats from other guys so I could make some comparisons. I want to know if the river raises are really so nutsy that even the strongest fishregs who know they are nuts are losing as much as I am

i think against a "standard reg" we should fold the river 100% fwiw

You are talking about so many different spots that have nothing to do with this one lol. You just can't make an average guess about all this come on.
Or I guess you can but it won't tell you anything about this specific example with specific parameters.
The whole point of poker is to learn to distinguish between these spots !

I could totally see myself bet/folding a set or even a low flush against most opponents when an indoor flush hits (and there isn't 4 cards to a straight). But here both ranges can't be so flush oriented. We are totally blocking the most credible flushes (Td9d, JdTd, Ad9d,...)

Hm so you don't mean to offend me but you just say that I'm a fishreg who is nuts ? Quite interesting nuance there...
If you are that curious we'll try and check but you know I'm not the tech guy with filters and all. And I don't have a big enough sample either. I'm not even sure if having a negative winrate is a problem because we get odds to call and all.

You are absolutely right that there are different spots. How villain plays this could be very much different if there was a flush draw already OTF vs if it was a backdoor. It could be different. But is it?
I could say that villain has almost always the nuts in this case also. As we can see from the results, it was the case in this hand too. Now that is being result oriented and doesn't prove anything yet. But if I ask you to provide some hands where villain actually raised a straight in this kind of situation, can you do that?

My point is that while we believe the situations could be different, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are. I haven't done a board specific analysis on the strength of river raises nor do I have sufficient sample size to do that. Here we need villain to raise with a weaker hand about 30% of the time. I'm really not sure if that is going to happen. Maybe, maybe not.

I searched for some hands in my database, there are very few hands in it. But the ones where there was a raise and it went to showdown were all hands that I lost.

I played a little bit with this hand on a solver, and it said I should have checked the river and then called the shove.

I don't like the flop donk, I would rather check/raise or check/fold.
River is close, but it's probably a fold. A set raises the flop, a straight raises the turn. So if it's not a spazz we're probably not winning the pot...

I have seen this happen a few times and thought that villain had a higher flush 😂, but the call OTR seems ok to me.

The way the hand was played is indicative of some random PP a straight etc, as floxy said its a backdoor flush.