[Closed] KK got Flushed

Its been a very long time since I played limit, but folding here is NOT a good idea. Other than maybe throwing out a c/r on the flop, I'm not sure there was anything you could do.

Just got unlucky.

I like call here. Most of the times he will have two pairs+ when he donks river against aggressor and second caller, but pot is too big to fold.

Hello!

First of all, the results don't matter so please don't post them. Well the limit is pretty low and the players seem like calling stations which are pretty much usually limping any 2 suited, any pair, any A high, any two broadway and sometimes even K high. Bets on flop and turn were of course alright, river bet was alright as well. against that wide of a range, you're getting enough equity (I put TT+, AQs+ and AKo away, they usually raise that):

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 83,112% 83,112% 0,000% 16,888% KdKc
Player 2: 16,888% 16,888% 0,000% 83,112% 99-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

You need 67% equity to raise there. Even if we give him a somewhat tighter range of QJo, QTo, Qxs, 9xs, Jxs, any 2 diamonds and PPs, we're getting more then enough equity to raise:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 76,492% 76,492% 0,000% 23,508% KdKc
Player 2: 23,508% 23,508% 0,000% 76,492% 99-22, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, Q2s+, J2s+, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 92s+, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c3c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, QTo+, JTo

To STR82ACE: He can't c/r flop IP

Regards,

Primzi

Primzi I have to disagree with you on this one :). Sometimes equity is not so important, villain's actions can tell us more. Especially on this low limit donking means that we're beaten most of the time. Most of the players are passive (as you can see he is calling with a monsterdraw). I would never raise this river with an overpair (I wonder how Hero didn't get 3-bet actually). It's an easy call for me although 60% of the time we are beaten.

Hello!

On the micros especially I've seen alot of stupid bluffs/bets with med pairs when flush draws complete or scare cards come on the river, that you should act according to your equity instead of the "obviousness" of their moves. If you get into a head of a bad player like that, he often thinks he has FE donking into that river or that you're bluffing with A high all the time and that he's actually ahead with his pair. Of course it would have to have some reads in order to make a good decision, but I think that we could tighten his range a bit more and still get a raise out of it.

As for your theory that "we're beat 60% of the times", I've tightened his range now to most of the club hands, Q2s-QJs and Q9o-QJo which are the hands he's betting this river with for sure. This way we get this much equity:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 59,302% 59,302% 0,000% 40,698% KdKc
Player 2: 40,698% 40,698% 0,000% 59,302% Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, Q2s+, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c3c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, Q9o+

Which means we're only beat 40% of the times :). I think we can get in the 7% equity more that we need to raise by expecting him to bluff/bet this river without top pair or maybe with a top pair worse kicker. Also we have given villain a VERY wide range of suited cards, if we remove some of those it increases our equity as well (which would make sense, I mean maybe he wouldn't play 72s and crap like that.) That means that we can raise the river :). Unless you think that the equity is total crap :P?

Regards,

Primzi

No, I don't think equity is total crap. I think Hero should call because:
1) We actually don't know how much is our equity while we're playing. As you see it's close and there is no way we can calculate this before making the decision.
2) Sometimes obvious moves are just obvious and villain has a good reason for it.
3) Getting 3-bet is really ugly.

And you didn't take into consideration that straightdraws aslo completed on river.

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 43,114 % 43,114 % 0,000 % 56,886 % KdKc
Player 2: 56,886 % 56,886 % 0,000 % 43,114 % AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KTs, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, Q2s+, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, T8s, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c3c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, KTo, Q2o+, T8o

Seriously, try not using PS equilator for once and think how would you play this hand. I'm pretty certain you'll have a second thought about raising.

Hello!

You're right, I've missed the straight draws. Although it's quite unlikely for the villain to have T8o, that's just too weak to call a raise. It gets close then, but as I said, we can't give an exact answer without knowing the stats and reads about the oponnents. This is definetely a situation in which I'd take into consideration the previous actions of the villain. If we are playing the first hand vs him then we might as well call for information, but if we have a couple of hands we can make a decision based on his play. You can not compare my decisions made in the game and now. Here we are evaluating the hands without given stats and reads and we have incomplete information, that is why we have to assume the hand ranges, and there is nothing wrong with telling someone what the correct decision is based on the equity :). Of course we cannot use the equilator whilst playing, but after some time you'll know your approximate equity even without using the equilator and you'll be able to define the ranges. And then we can make a correct decision based on the ranges, reads and stats.

Regards,

Primzi

Hi Puukallistaja,

I think the hand was played OK till the river. Without any reads I tend to just call. All draws completed here. Pot is big enough so fold is no option. After Your raise, all better hands will 3-bet and make much more difficult decission for You.
At least You picked up a read, can make a note about his river donk and next time play according to this.

Primzi, Numpaf,
You guys calculated some equity but honestly, do You think BB is so loose to call a raise with 72, 83 and theese kind of crapy hands? Without any reads I am not sure. Instead of theese I will give him some offsuited conectors, one or two gapers,....which You completely missed.
Regrding to hand poster, it's his first hand in the forum, and I think he is not so experienced to understand Your thoughts about equity (if You are, sorry for this). So equity yes, but as an addition, not main reason for doing this or that for beginners.
Just to add: I don't want to knock down Your work on this forum, we all appreciate it. Just try to adjust Your thoughts according to poster knowledge of the game and go with that. If I would be new to this game, theese numbers would be just confusing for me.
My two cents

Originally posted by kennyxx
You guys calculated some equity but honestly, do You think BB is so loose to call a raise with 72, 83 and theese kind of crapy hands? Without any reads I am not sure. Instead of theese I will give him some offsuited conectors, one or two gapers,....which You completely missed.

Hello!

It is mentioned in one of my posts that we could exclude those hands, which gives us about 5% more equity (I've done some calculations), which however does not make much difference. I've limited the ranges to Axs, Kxs, Qxs, suited connectors and 1-gappers, but as I said it doesn't make much of a difference and some people with high VPIP would actually play any two suited in that position :(.

Regards,

Primzi

I completely agree (with kennyxx)! That's why in my first post here I tried to explain what I would do if I didn't know anything about equity. I don't think this kind of calculations are suitable for beginners, especially on micro limits where the game is pretty straight forward.

I see that Primzi is evaluating most of the hands these days and it's great but asking for stats and calculating equity on FR 0.05/0.1 is a bit too confusing for beginner players IMO.

Hi Puukallistaja and be welcome to our FL section.

Without calculating anything I think you should only call the river (if that is right or wrong will be answered later).

Offtopic:
Using Equilator is a great way of improving you skill. But it's pretty confusing and not that easy to master so posting a lot calculation and iscussing them will help us all.
For beginners this discussion can be skipped as it's oo much. But it's nice to use it for a reason. If we have 66% equity we raise here for value.
The equity depends on the range so if the range is wrong the result will be wrong so adjusting it and coming to a conclusion is something I like very much.

My range would be:
- any 2 suited that made a flush (he was on the BB so that is very well possible)
- offsuited: KT, AQ, KQ, Q2+

I ignore the sets as well as some twopairs which are unlikely to be slowplayed.

Primzi I first had such a high equity too and forgot the turn and rivercards. May that be the mistake?

Board: 3c Jc 4h 9h Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.556% 55.56% 00.00% 90 0.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 44.444% 44.44% 00.00% 72 0.00 { AQs, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KQs, Q2s+, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c2c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c2c, 4c2c, AQo, KQo, Q2o+ }

There are a lot single pair Q hands in now. I don't know if he really donkbets them all or may only check/call but removing them only weakens our range and doesn't change our best move.
With less than 66% you should only call.
That is because if you 3-bet you get called by weaker hands (1 BB gain) whereas you lose 2 BB if he caps with a better hand. As he won't cap all better hands here we don't need exactly 66%. 60% should be a good number. With 55% equity we are below both borders so just call here.

With reads everything may change so if you got some please let us know.