JJ top set. Do i fold the river?

Tough spot you got there...
I think with this really bad runout and the betting of opponent you can fold on this river. There are no missed draws, which villain can turn into a bluff. There are too many straights (and maybe AK of hearts) in the Range of the opponent. In this stakes a huge donk river bet indicates great strength about 80% of the time. So without specific reads its a fold IMO.

Run out is bad for sure, but I would most likely bet a little bit more on the flop like 14bb and on the turn you can easy bet like 27bb as played with the intention to shove most rivers. His river donk lead is nasty, but I expect he has to often a straight to make a call profitable.

Cheers,
SDK1987

It's close OTR. I have seen so many wired things at 2NL so you likely have 1/4 vs unknown, but this guy looks like a typical 2NL reg and a typical 2NL reg has a better hand than you in this situation almost always. So I'll likely fold the river bet. Ah and yes bet bigger OTF, there are so many bad turn cards for you.

But Hero won't beat a straight here.... do I miss something or why is the call on the river profitable?

Originally posted by davidms
But Hero won't beat a straight here.... do I miss something or why is the call on the river profitable?

That's right. That's why I don't think a call on the river is profitable.

While flop size is ok, turn size is not. Bet way bigger on that turn card. BB 3bet range vs MP should have lots of draws here (AQ, AK, QTs, J9s, 87s, 76s..), even DP hands you beat (T8s, JTs).
Than runout is terrible. And villain check/calls twice and donks the river on a really bad card for you. This is usually a very strong hand.
You can fold here with top set.

Hi,

OTF and OTT you let them draw cheaply, bet higher.
As played river is a fold. I can not see them spazz so much here to make a call profitable.

On this flop I bet 2/3 pot without thinking, both with overpairs and sets. Turn is even worse, even more draws and pair + draws are available, but pot would now be just big enough to overbet shove directly.
Maybe this is wrong but if they fold I’m OK with it, if they call and hit I’m OK with that too, I only tilt if I let them win by not betting enough, so I’m actually protecting against tilt ;-)

I think OTF you should be betting about 75% to be making those draws pay again OTT go 75% OTR when you get donked in to especially at these stakes on stars from what i have seen at 2z's this line is never a bluff so your always better off folding imo.

Ouuuch, the dealer murdered you!
I have said this a million times: a big raise OTR usually means a very strong hand.

Plus the villain seems to be a reg, judging by his stats and by the preflop 3bet size.

As everyone said, I think that you should bet strongly on the flop on this kind of situation. Same goes with the turn card. Given that it is micro stake table where there are many players looking to have monster cards and the big bet by him, you probably should fold on the river.