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(FR) AKs - overcards + nuts flush draw vs dbet pot size

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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

That particular villain had been shoving pre with 22 and A8o and post with TP and trips.

$0.05 NL - Holdem - 6 players

SB: 49 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
BB: 125.2 BB (VPIP: 14.61, PFR: 12.36, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 89)
UTG: 63.2 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 2.22, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 46)
MP: 101 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
CO: 61.4 BB (VPIP: 71.43, PFR: 57.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (BTN): 222.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♥ K♥

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 6 BB, CO calls 6 BB

Flop: (22.4 BB, 3 players) T♥ 2♦ 3♥
UTG checks, CO bets 21.4 BB, Hero calls 21.4 BB, fold
Thoughts and questions:

Spoiler

no point on raising here. I would only continue, OTT, if I improved.
Are my overcards + fd enough to continue here "knowing" I'm probably against a TP or a draw?

Turn: (65.2 BB, 2 players) A♦
CO bets 33 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 33 BB
Thoughts and questions:

Spoiler

Not folding my tptk here. Villain could had AT, but I still have outs to a flush (plus villain is short).

River: (131.2 BB, 2 players) 3♦

Spoiler

CO shows J♣ T♠ (Two Pair, Tens and Threes)
(Pre 35%, Flop 46%, Turn 9%)
Hero wins 124.8 BB


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8 replies
WaterDragon26
Joined: 30.06.2019

I think, you played this hand very well. You had 15 outs, and I agree that his donk bet suggested that he had top pair at most. I would discount AT from his range because of the limp preflop.


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semiramiRNMD
Joined: 25.10.2009

no point on raising here. I would only continue, OTT, if I improved.

And where is the catch? You cannot fold OTT vs his stack size, would be a big mistake. So what's the right move? Just shove OTF. You are fliping vs TP and crush a draw, and a draw will pay you now, but might not on later streets if both of you miss. And you also have a fold equity, not much really, but you have.


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I believe the hand is well played.
I'm not sure about the flop because it is a polarized donkbet and because it is 3-way.
But taking into account stack sizes (they're probably fish), I think it's ok to realize your equity by shoving the flop (yes, shove as semirami said, because you don't want to just raise ang get called/re-raised by UTG).
I also have no idea about their ranges.


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semiramiRNMD
Joined: 25.10.2009

Well played. because he hits OTT, but he wants to fold if he doesnt't hit and it will happen 2 out of 3 times. But that would be a big mistake. But OTT he will not know if his overs are good, if the board pairs is he drawing dead now, will be disaster if he folds to lower FD. Turn play is easy when you hit and very difficult when you don't, you have too great pot odds to fold. Shoving the flop makes your life much easier.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Only problem could be that you doesn't have any fold equity on the flop and you need to hit to win, but I would shove the flop as well here against a maniac most likely.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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romanista06
Joined: 03.10.2014

In this situation, shoving flop it's the better option, you have more than 50% of equity.


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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

Originally posted by romanista06
In this situation, shoving flop it's the better option, you have more than 50% of equity.

How/where do I learn this kind of stuff? How much equity would be necessary to shove at each streets taking into account the effective stack size?


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semiramiRNMD
Joined: 25.10.2009

Originally posted by pguest

Originally posted by romanista06
In this situation, shoving flop it's the better option, you have more than 50% of equity.

How/where do I learn this kind of stuff? How much equity would be necessary to shove at each streets taking into account the effective stack size?

OTF CO bets 21,4. If you shove you are risking 54,4 (to call 21,4 + his remaining 33) to win a pot of 131,2. If you want to know how much equity you do need just divide what yo risk to the size of the pot. So in this case 54,4/131,2=41.5%. Or you need 41,5% equity for break even, this provided that you have zero fold equity, but IMO you'll have at least some FE, not much but you will have.


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