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(FR) 99 - top set in a very connected board

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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

I checked villain stats first. He looked passive.

$0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players

SB: 97 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
BB: 18 BB (VPIP: 14.55, PFR: 7.27, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 55)
UTG: 21.4 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG+1: 107.4 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 14.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
MP: 105 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
MP+1: 55.6 BB (VPIP: 38.24, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
CO: 90.8 BB (VPIP: 77.78, PFR: 55.56, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (BTN): 148.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♣ 9♦

fold, fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 4 BB

Flop: (11.4 BB, 2 players) 7♣ 8♥ 9♠
MP bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB
Questions and thoughts:

Spoiler

would a player that looks like more passive lead here with a draw or an overpair? On this board?
If I raise now, any chance of being called by worst hands 2 or 3 streets?

Turn: (33.4 BB, 2 players) K♥
MP bets 23.8 BB, Hero calls 23.8 BB
Questions and thoughts:

Spoiler

Mostly a blank. Maybe I should shove this turn. I'm still unsure if a worst hand would call a raise shove here, taking into account that villain looked passive.

River: (81 BB, 2 players) 6♥
MP bets 38.6 BB, Hero calls 38.6 BB
Questions and thoughts:

Spoiler

Nasty river. Now I can't raise for sure. I'm expecting to see a str8, but I couldn't let my topset go

Spoiler

MP shows 7♦ 7♥ (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 7%, Turn 2%)
Hero wins 150.4 BB


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6 replies
semiramiRNMD
Joined: 25.10.2009

Yeah you missed a lot of value, raise that flop and raise it big. You want to play for stacks ASAP, because many turn and river cards can kill the action, as happened. A passive player wont donk this board with just a draw or nothing, he has a strong hand, 2-pairs, a pair+draw, sets and straights, and you crush everything except the straight but you are not too far behind even vs that.


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Taroxus
Joined: 27.11.2018

How did he miss a lot of value? He got 70bb + from villain.


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semiramiRNMD
Joined: 25.10.2009

But the villain had 105. Next time when the roles are reversed and the villain will have the overset, it's inevitable, our hero will lose a full stack.


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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

Agreed. I realised I missed tons of value...


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

semirami as said it.
Raise that flop and bet turn and river on blank cards. The sooner you put your stack in the middle the better.


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ToddBrunson
Joined: 23.05.2010

I think you have to raise every time this board only 610 or J10 beats your hand but villain can able donkbet here any 9x, two pair, 77, 88, over pair, 1010-AA and 55. You miss some or lot value here.


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