flop huge overbet hero push or fold?

You need to win about 50% of the time to make profit here. There aren't many draws possible. I would bet villain does this most of the time for value. Now the question is can he overvalue overpairs smaller than AA and how often can he really do this with total air.
I would probably just fold and wait for a better spot to take his money

Most fishes will want to trap you, if they have 2-pair or better. This is rarely a strong hand, you'll see draws most of the time, a pair or even overcards like KJ are also very possible, I'll never fold here - shove.

Thank you!

It's a big enough sample to know villain is a huge fish and this line is typical of that player type i dont expect to be behind very often. It's an absolute slam dunk shove imo and i expect villain to show us plenty of worse hands. Villains line is indicative of 22 55 77 and fps with hands like QQ KK AA + they can also have all the over pairs 88-JJ and combo draws like 65 or just be spewing with air so im never folding.

Perhaps, but i see lot of times even fish, they played similar straight, set or two pairs. So if add villain range this: 22+,87s,74s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,75o+,63o+,52o+,43o i just only have 50%. But i think villain range almost never will be that wide. So if we see this i haven't got 50%.

Hero mucked? tf?

52 would be weird.
You have an overpair, a backdoor draw and can even improve to beat a set.
This is a call despite the size and everything, don't give credit to these players.

Originally posted by ToddBrunson
Perhaps, but i see lot of times even fish, they played similar straight, set or two pairs. So if add villain range this: 22+,87s,74s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,75o+,63o+,52o+,43o i just only have 50%. But i think villain range almost never will be that wide. So if we see this i haven't got 50%.

.

You cant really assign a fish a reasonable range as they have unreasonable ranges and they play them very badlly that's why they're fish.If villain is playing a range even with all sets and a straight 22+,75s,65s,54s were a 67% favourite.If you remove some of those nuted combos our equity is going to be somewhere between 67% and 80%.This isnt typically the line fish take with nuted hands.

sometimes you are crushed, but between the times he's totally crushed and the times we get it in against 2pairs with not so terrible equity, i do think we have more than 50% indeed. when you lose you do feel really dumb, but that's life

The range of the Villain does not matter to me. The possible hands which could beat me do not matter to me. I never fold an All-In quality hand and must accept that these hands may sometimes lose. I would shove this without a thought. Recently, I completed 17,000 hands at $.10 Big Blinds. I won 4,930 Big Blinds with my All In hands, won 260 Big Blinds with post-flop hands without All In, and lost 2,670 Big Blinds with preflop folds. Now, I am doing better with post-flop non All In hands because I learned from SDK to not call with two overboard cards. Nevertheless, I know where my money is. Make your money with smart All In. Never cower to an All In scenario. It does not bother me that I lose 30% of my All In hands. DON’T OVERTHINK poker. You got an All In hand. Play it. Never fold it.

I can accept that we could have over 50% equity in this hand. But I would like to note some things from the above posts that I think might be incorrect.

First, the sample size is not enough to make any big conclusions. It is big enough to get somewhat accurate VPIP/PFR. We can conclude that villain is probably a recreational player, but there are several different types of those. Some could be passive, some like to slowplay, some are total maniacs and so on. We don't know much about villain's tendencies. Except that based on his VPIP/PFR gap it looks like he is more on the passive side at least pre-flop? And if he is indeed passive most of the times, it doesn't support the idea that he would go super aggro with crap OTF. Villain might often do this kind of move with draws but now there are not many reasonable draws.

Second, I have a comment regarding the ranges that were constructed. I wouldn't give much weight to the fact that we have a backdoor gutshot with our AA. That doesn't improve our equity that much. Hands like 52 wouldn't be super weird considering that villain is a recreational and limped. But hands like JJ+ could be more rare as I have a feeling that these recreational players like to limp/3bet those most of the time. Also, villain being a recreational player doesn't mean he also hates money. Thus, random hands like KJo can be possible especially if villain is tilted, but I'm not sure if villain realistically shoves those crappy hands so often. We can take many of the ranges provided above and modify them just slightly and our equity drops significantly. For example the range by Fvendal (22+,75s,65s,54s) --> Why villain wouldn't limp call with 64s, 63s, 52s, 43s and so on? And if we then remove JJ+ our equity is around 50%.

Last, there is no such thing as all-in quality hand, at least not in some scenarios. When you are pre-flop, then yes AA goes always all-in. But in this kind of spot you can't simply look at your own hand. You can always calculate if the move is profitable by estimating your equity against villain's range and comparing it to your pot odds. It is simple math. There are several spots where even strong looking hands should be folded. I'm not saying this is one of them, but doing this calculations and practicing is essential.

In the end it looks like in most of the cases we probably have at least slightly over 50 % equity, so a call would have been fine. However, I think it is not so simple to reach this conclusion at the tables.

Originally posted by la55i VPIP/PFR gap it looks like he is more on the passive side at least pre-flop?
For example the range by Fvendal (22+,75s,65s,54s) --> Why villain wouldn't limp call with 64s, 63s, 52s, 43s and so on? And if we then remove JJ+ our equity is around 50%.

I would tag a 50/20 18 af villain as a loose aggro fish villain looks passive pre with 3bets but other wise pretty bad aggro. And villains range could be much wider i just threw together a range that included pairs+nuted combos but we could assign villain a wider range.
22+,86s,75s+,64s+,54s,52s,43s
And still come up with 63% equity and you could still add A4s,63s,53s,42s,32s
And likely some other combos but i think the equity is going to stay pretty similar once you balance it out. Between 60%-80% and id tend towards the higher end of the figure i think whats important for me in the hand is villains line and im just not a beleiver. As it's not a line fish typically take with nutted hands so personally i think folding in this spot is a pretty big mistake if villain was say 12/8 im more on-board with folding

I played not so many but about 50 hands this villain and i don't remember he use donkbet often. And i don't think so he had tilt, but i check if i know, most of time i notice. But even villain had tilt i don't think will his range KJo or any2 over.
So i bet more chance villain two pair or better hands here or pair and open ended straight draw.

And the post just 10BB and risk 110BB singe raised pot. Maybe nity but i don't think the fold bad here.

Originally posted by ToddBrunsonI played not so many but about 50 hands this villain here.

Youve got almost 500 hands on villain.

would tag a 50/20 18 af villain as a loose aggro fish

That 18 is villains 3bet%. Meaning he limps that 50 % range and then he uses limp/3bet line quite frequently. As villain likes to limp 3bet a lot, it might be questionable if we should include all of those pocket pairs always in his range.
Villains AF was 1.6 which is actually quite low. Meaning that post flop villain has not been an aggro fish. However, the sample size is still quite small for an accurate AF.

Originally posted by la55i

would tag a 50/20 18 af villain as a loose aggro fish

That 18 is villains 3bet%. Meaning he limps that 50 % range and then he uses limp/3bet line quite frequently. As villain likes to limp 3bet a lot, it might be questionable if we should include all of those pocket pairs always in his range.
Villains AF was 1.6 which is actually quite low. Meaning that post flop villain has not been an aggro fish. However, the sample size is still quite small for an accurate AF.

I dont even use that stat tbh never have but isnt like 5 quite aggressive and around 3 average ?.But regardless given villain is running 50/20/18 over 500 hands im not folding this still not until i have a read they only over bet with nutted hands i do think folding is a mistake

Yes but this table when we played about 50 hands this table so far.

I checked villain. Open limp ep 33, A4, K3s, K4s, K6, Q5

When he hold sd played agressive 33%. 434 hand and net won -34 dollars, -155BB/100. EP 59/25 cold call 20. Flop donkbet 39 (54). Donk-call 40 (5), donk fold 60. Post flop agg.: 30 wtsd 28, wonsd 30.

Less than 0.5k hands. All this is meaningless. If you want to play nuts or nothing thats OK at micros, you'll just have less profit.