AKo - How to get it in?

I think I don't want to go broke. If you manage to, he'll have a better hand and your draws are too bad. Backdoor is like 3% (and it's not even to the nuts) and a gutshot is, well, a gutshot. Your overcards are probably no good if he calls or shoves and gets called.

If I have to go broke, I guess c/r is the least bad option. Then you at least have some fold equity. I'd never play that line there, though.

I'm not sure and would be happy about someone who's better than me chiming in. I'm also sorry: I missed his stack size in your original post although you even specifically mentioned it. That completely changes how I view the situation. I think we don't get to realize equity by checking because even fish will jam here a lot. If he jams I think we can fold. If he bets small, say 1/3rd pot, we'll have to bluff 2/3rds of current pot into 5/3rds of current pot (then-pot) which comes in at below half pot. He'll only fold his absolute junk then (certainly if he's a fish). Which means even if he bets that low we still won't get enough fold equity on a c/r. I now lean towards jamming it ourselves or c/c c/f depending on size.

But the only thing to be relatively certain is to put this through an equity calculator, which I right now can not do. We'll have to invent (read: estimate with bad information) a range he is doing this preflop with and see how much of this range he might fold that has equity if we shove here. How fishy is he? Will he be able to fold JTs on this board? Will he fold 99? Same questions for his preflop range: is he doing this with low suited connectors? Is he capable of flatting twice with AK or AQ or better? My intuition is that this board hits his range well, even if he plays hands like 67s or 55 here. And I've always learned fish don't like to fold. But I could be awfully wrong.

I added this thread to my favorites because I'm so unsure what to do here I probably have a huge leak in just this situation. Would be very happy if someone with a better poker brain than mine helped out.

Don't think folding is an option vs a recreational player with this SPR. I would just shove. Can get called by worse also. KJ, AJ, j9s heart draws etc

Is even a rec player going to stack off against a shove on the flop with anything worse than nut flush draw here? This is purely a way ahead way behind situation, where u stand to win a pot if draws and misses fold, but are only getting called if he has a pair or better that connected. Even ur overs are likely covered when called here which reduces ur outs to the gutshot only?

Any others disagree with my line of thinking here?

I would check flop. You block enough draws, he will overcall, etc.
This is one of those increased variance spots you should avoid.

Originally posted by hijack1988
Is even a rec player going to stack off against a shove on the flop with anything worse than nut flush draw here? This is purely a way ahead way behind situation, where u stand to win a pot if draws and misses fold, but are only getting called if he has a pair or better that connected. Even ur overs are likely covered when called here which reduces ur outs to the gutshot only?

Any others disagree with my line of thinking here?

With SPR of 1 villian folding is a great result even if he has AJ, especially OOP. Equity denial super important as pots get big.

Take a look at the PIO solve for this spot

AKo SPR1

Nasty flop spot against a 20bb stack, butI expect you have a lot of fold equity if you shove and even if he called you have decent equity with you 2 over cards and a straight draw.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Nicely said totally agreed