Villain is unknown.
Preflop standard.
Flop decided to bet around 40%. I think we could check, but I can get called by worse (Jx mostly, some flushdraws).
He raises very big and I decided to let it go. Totally exploitable, but I always feel they have JJ or 99 or 44 (even J9s). I see myself calling, then he bets very big OTT and I have a difficult decision. They know players usually get sticky to overpairs, so sets can get paid off.
What do you think?
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23 replies
interesting spot. I would also just shove the flop.
Most player just call the flop with set so my guess he has two pair or draw(or bluff). Would still just shove probably.
I dont think folding KK against unknown on this flop is an option. Also i would bet bigger on the flop.
Preflop ok. You hold a premium hand and are OOP so I would raise biger to 10-12bb. Flop - you have a iniciative, are OOP and the flop is super wet. I would bet much bigger here, like close to pot size bet. Shoving flop is really great option too - people will call often even TT or 88, because they think you overplaying your resteal atempt, or will call lots of draws. As played - what do you accomplish with the small bet? You inducing him to raise you a lot, so you need to be prepared for that. I understand your feelings but you cant let go this one especially SB vs BTN resteal spot. Without any read on villain close your eyes and ship it in. When you lose, so be it. In long term, it is right.
The more I think about it the more I like the idea. The thing is that theoretically he shouldn't be raising any hand. There are basically no raising ranges IP in 3bet pots in most spots. Just doesn't make sense.
Sometimes I face this type of aggression and my first thought is "here we go, I'm screwed once more".
I decided to filter my most recent database searching for similar spots where I get raised OTF and decide to 3bet in a 3bet pot.
In 48 spots, I only won 5. 7 villain folded, the rest of them I was behind when they decided to call.
Originally posted by zetozinho
.... The thing is that theoretically he shouldn't be raising any hand. There are basically no raising ranges IP in 3bet pots in most spots. .
Could you tell me why, and show me something that proofs your statement?
EDIT*
I think this hand depends on what kind of player type your image or stats showed and what kind of opponent you were facing along with value to bluff ranges
Originally posted by DeadMensHand
Originally posted by zetozinho
.... The thing is that theoretically he shouldn't be raising any hand. There are basically no raising ranges IP in 3bet pots in most spots. .Could I tell me why and show me something that proofs your statement?
It's come from working with solvers. From my experience, in 90% or more of the 3bet pots I ran, the solver wouldn't raise c-bets OTF from the preflop aggressor when in position. This is logical in the sense that you almost never have range advantage in most boards as the caller, because the aggressor will have the same strong hands as you (and usually even more).
Check-raising OOP is different. Remember that OOP you should c-bet less often than IP.
I could show you the sim I ran for this hand, not sure if I'm allowed to post it here.
Originally posted by zetozinho
The more I think about it the more I like the idea. The thing is that theoretically he shouldn't be raising any hand. There are basically no raising ranges IP in 3bet pots in most spots. Just doesn't make sense.
Sometimes I face this type of aggression and my first thought is "here we go, I'm screwed once more".
I decided to filter my most recent database searching for similar spots where I get raised OTF and decide to 3bet in a 3bet pot.
In 48 spots, I only won 5. 7 villain folded, the rest of them I was behind when they decided to call.
what do you mean by theoretically he shouldn't be raising any hand? that statement makes zero sense to me. You can't just put Villains on sets every time, you have to use range vs range, what are his value bets vs his bluffs. I input the preflop lines into equilab and flopzilla, with 11% VPIP calling range. 88+,44,,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,AJo+,KJo+,QJo, your way ahead most of the time. chances of villain having flush draw on flop are around 9%, chance of sets about 10%, . Your hand is best 83% of the time against a strong average BU 3-bet call. Your weak bet could have simply induced him to bluff at it , 7bb into 18bb looks weak.
Originally posted by zetozinho
Originally posted by DeadMensHand
Originally posted by zetozinho
.... The thing is that theoretically he shouldn't be raising any hand. There are basically no raising ranges IP in 3bet pots in most spots. .Could I tell me why and show me something that proofs your statement?
It's come from working with solvers. From my experience, in 90% or more of the 3bet pots I ran, the solver wouldn't raise c-bets OTF from the preflop aggressor when in position. This is logical in the sense that you almost never have range advantage in most boards as the caller, because the aggressor will have the same strong hands as you (and usually even more).
Check-raising OOP is different. Remember that OOP you should c-bet less often than IP.
I could show you the sim I ran for this hand, not sure if I'm allowed to post it here.
still can't believe it... show me the Solver solutions... there must be a raising Range with a low frequency but not 0. So Hero should raise sometimes OCs and GSs with Backdoorflushdrws some flushes and monster draws.
Not that i really understand GTO that much but basically it's the game theory optimal line for any given situation i believe.But solvers are playing GTO against a fictional GTO opponent so both are taking perfect GTO lines for each situation against each other.The thing is we are playing against people who especially in the micros aren't playing anything even resembling GTO.And we probably don't want to be trying to play close to GTO ourselves in many cases.We want to employ mostly exploitative strategies for these player pools to take advantage of player tendencies and reads.Rather than worrying to much about GTO and being overly exploited ourselves.
I'd cbet the flop larger as default, you want to bet bet shove comfortably
+ put more money in on flop and turn vs draws
Originally posted by zetozinho
Originally posted by DeadMensHand
Originally posted by zetozinho
.... The thing is that theoretically he shouldn't be raising any hand. There are basically no raising ranges IP in 3bet pots in most spots. .Could I tell me why and show me something that proofs your statement?
It's come from working with solvers. From my experience, in 90% or more of the 3bet pots I ran, the solver wouldn't raise c-bets OTF from the preflop aggressor when in position. This is logical in the sense that you almost never have range advantage in most boards as the caller, because the aggressor will have the same strong hands as you (and usually even more).
Check-raising OOP is different. Remember that OOP you should c-bet less often than IP.
I could show you the sim I ran for this hand, not sure if I'm allowed to post it here.
Small sizes trigger wide raise ranges
Because IP doesn't want you to realize equity with a wide cbet range with small size, there should be a reasonable raise range here in solver
In practice at NL10 people might not realize it
but they will actually play closer to solver when you bet small on flops
simply because they think you're weak when you bet small
That's why you can't really fold here after betting this way
Shove or call seem both ok now
lol
I stand corrected
you actually bet 40% on flop that's not that small
solver will raise just 1.76%
KK without a club's a jam
KK with a club mix between call and shove
Yes according to solver-ish attitude the raising range there is quite small something like that: QcTc, Tc8c, AcTc, 44, 99, JJ.......? (just playing with snowie not regular solver). But it is NL10 - not NL10k. In addition solver works with max EV right? But raising any FD can be +EV there. Not max, but +. So his range is in reality wide as hell....
If the player is just little more on the agro site he can easily have any flush draw or even Jx if he is more aggro (NL10!!!!!). So on average you are +EV there. Vs known tight thinking player, I would consider fold for a sec....and shove ♦ Vs weak nit I would consider fold for a two sec.....and shove also ♦ Vs extremely passive player, I would fold without thinking much.
Oh maybe I wasn't clear enough - even vs that tight range solver shoves or calls KK and it's not close to a fold vs the raise
Thank you all. I also ran a sim and the results were pretty much identical to Lemon's.
Would be nice if someone with a big sample size could filter it looking for spots where there are flop 3bets and how often you've win the hand. Out of curiosity ♦
You'd need to filter for 40% and lower cbet on connected boards like this OOP
- not many people use that sizing in the first place