U didnt say "I think" you said "we are often ahead". On the flop when we call there are 2 players left to act, both have shorter stacks, is it +EV with them in mind? what are their ranges and what do they call with ? Heres the formula if u want to mess around Im unsure of the answer I don't know what the other villains would call an all in with a straight or a set? how do we come up with their fold% versus call % here.
EV=F($Pot)+C(%W*$W)-C(%L*$L)
Ok I thought you meant Often ahead in terms of Equity, which is not always the case, Nonetheless I still find some of your posts come off as factual rather than thoughts and speculations in posts. I will try to find out this EV formula answer now
pot odds spot, you need 45%, or less than that if other players join. i'm probably taking this flip, fun times!
"what's their range" who knows, but some overpairs and sets is a good guess. if it's close, you should usually call because of the random spewtard factor, you never know when it might hit them.
Originally posted by killacasey
Ok I thought you meant Often ahead in terms of Equity, which is not always the case, Nonetheless I still find some of your posts come off as factual rather than thoughts and speculations in posts. I will try to find out this EV formula answer now
It's obviously only my opinion i don't know the results and were dealing with incomplete information when it comes to a range for villain.
Funny spot.
With so much equity I'd also look him up.
Guys you don't need to fight so hard about ranges and etc, no one knows what the hell a 100bb shove OTF is supposed to mean ♦
We have always 50% equity on this flop, even more sometimes.
We need 45% to continue (24.5+112/112 = 1.22:1 == 45,1%).
Ok, It's really cool to look your inputs into that hand.. especially when i'm the only one who knows the outcome of the hand lol
It is cool to consider ranges and stuff (personally i believe that this is a bit of overthinking.. but anyway it is good for the learning process). Even from that it looks illogical to me that villain would make this play with a naked nut flush draw, my hand and the board blocks every suited ace that could hit a pair here (8s, 7s and 5s are out there, if he has a FD, it is a naked one). There are way other profitable (and less risky) ways of playing the nut FD here, I would never ever take this line, as he would probably be behind anything that calls him.
Considering equity:
Equity Win Draw
UTG 42.36% 41.98% 0.38% AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As6s, As4s
MP1 57.64% 57.26% 0.38% 9s8s
The naked nut flush draw here would have only 42% equity against my hand and would probably be flipping against any hand that hit a pair on the board.
I have over 3k hands on villain, I know he's a OK opponent, and I'd never expect him to make this play, as it looks pretty -ev to me.
_____________
Now, when we think about the value hands he could be jamming for protection against the draws here, that would be mostly overpairs, sets, and two pairs. Here are the equities considering, again, all the blockers.
Equity Win Draw
UTG 46.93% 46.18% 0.75% 77+, 55, 87s, 75s
MP1 53.07% 52.32% 0.75% 9s8s
(Equities calculated with Equilab)
Again, on this board, my hand turns out to be the slight favorite against those ranges. I don't know if I'm missing something here, but it turns out I believe this was a profitable call. As i said, too many cards could improve us to a nutty hand, and if the villain has a drawing hand, we already have showdown value.
Originally posted by zetozinho
Funny spot.
With so much equity I'd also look him up.
Guys you don't need to fight so hard about ranges and etc, no one knows what the hell a 100bb shove OTF is supposed to mean ♦We have always 50% equity on this flop, even more sometimes.
We need 45% to continue (24.5+112/112 = 1.22:1 == 45,1%).
hahahah thank you I loved it.
Anyway, I don't usually do it but it is fun to mess around with ranges and equity
Originally posted by biel1996
Ok, It's really cool to look your inputs into that hand.. especially when i'm the only one who knows the outcome of the hand lolIt is cool to consider ranges and stuff (personally i believe that this is a bit of overthinking.. but anyway it is good for the learning process). Even from that it looks illogical to me that villain would make this play with a naked nut flush draw, my hand and the board blocks every suited ace that could hit a pair here (8s, 7s and 5s are out there, if he has a FD, it is a naked one). There are way other profitable (and less risky) ways of playing the nut FD here, I would never ever take this line, as he would probably be behind anything that calls him.
Considering equity:
Equity Win Draw
UTG 42.36% 41.98% 0.38% AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As6s, As4s
MP1 57.64% 57.26% 0.38% 9s8sThe naked nut flush draw here would have only 42% equity against my hand and would probably be flipping against any hand that hit a pair on the board.
I have over 3k hands on villain, I know he's a OK opponent, and I'd never expect him to make this play, as it looks pretty -ev to me.
_____________Now, when we think about the value hands he could be jamming for protection against the draws here, that would be mostly overpairs, sets, and two pairs. Here are the equities considering, again, all the blockers.
Equity Win Draw
UTG 46.93% 46.18% 0.75% 77+, 55, 87s, 75s
MP1 53.07% 52.32% 0.75% 9s8s(Equities calculated with Equilab)
Again, on this board, my hand turns out to be the slight favorite against those ranges. I don't know if I'm missing something here, but it turns out I believe this was a profitable call. As i said, too many cards could improve us to a nutty hand, and if the villain has a drawing hand, we already have showdown value.
what 2 pair is villain raising with UTG with those stats?
Originally posted by zetozinho
Funny spot.
With so much equity I'd also look him up.
Guys you don't need to fight so hard about ranges and etc, no one knows what the hell a 100bb shove OTF is supposed to mean ♦We have always 50% equity on this flop, even more sometimes.
We need 45% to continue (24.5+112/112 = 1.22:1 == 45,1%).
we always have 50% equity here? I disagree , Ive put 3 nut flushes , 9 combos of AA-QQ( the ones with a spade), and all sets into equilab and gotten under 50%. assuming villain is just shoving his stack in with any over-pair on this board every time seems odd...
Originally posted by biel1996
It is cool to consider ranges and stuff (personally i believe that this is a bit of overthinking.. but anyway it is good for the learning process). Even from that it looks illogical to me that villain would make this play with a naked nut flush draw, my hand and the board blocks every suited ace that could hit a pair here (8s, 7s and 5s are out there, if he has a FD, it is a naked one). There are way other profitable (and less risky) ways of playing the nut FD here, I would never ever take this line, as he would probably be behind anything that calls him.
.
'
dude people are going to have NFD sometimes even if you have spades in your hand that doesn't make it impossible, you don't just discount nut-flushes in villains range because you hold blockers that is a big mistake, it can be less likely but not out of their range.When you shove your stack all-in you don't base it off of only what they call with, you base it off of fold equity aswell with this formula" EV=F($Pot)+C(%W*$W)-C(%L*$L)
you make money off of all the hands your opponent folds and all the ones that call you and you win against. He might be behind what calls him but that doesn't matter, he can get you to fold a chunk of your range taking the pot and the hands that you are ahead of him he has equity against to still beat, AKss,AQss,AJss can hit top pairs and flushes still. I respect the fact that might not be a play your comfortable making but that doesnt mean it should be out of villains range, it can be EV to shove on flops multi-way with NFD's
Yeah this situation is a better fold, what happens when 1 of the 2 players behind us choose to call and they have a set or a better flushdraw taking some of our outs ? Maybe straight with or without a spade ?Our equity would be dropping versus villains overpair nobody in the thread mentioned the people behind us acting Seems kind of important.This call is more a gamble than anything else wait for a better spot I think is best
Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Originally posted by killacasey
Ok I thought you meant Often ahead in terms of Equity, which is not always the case, Nonetheless I still find some of your posts come off as factual rather than thoughts and speculations in posts. I will try to find out this EV formula answer nowIt's obviously only my opinion i don't know the results and were dealing with incomplete information when it comes to a range for villain.
Ya I confused myself ..you did say “we are often ahead,” which wasn’t true. We are behind to overpairs before the cards come and we are not always ahead in terms of equity versus his other ranges.I just don’t understand how you say it’s obviously only your opinion when you say it like a fact to the OP in one of the comments. I’d like to hear a moderators thoughts on the hand,
I’m far better than any mod here 😉 But sorry mate, it’s an easy call lol... Even in the worst case scenario we’re getting about the right price.
Well, worse case scenario is that this dude has a set and the two guys behind call with better flush and straight draws. This is not very likely though.
We’re laughing here. Call and never think about it again.
Originally posted by killacasey
Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Originally posted by killacasey
Ok I thought you meant Often ahead in terms of Equity, which is not always the case, Nonetheless I still find some of your posts come off as factual rather than thoughts and speculations in posts. I will try to find out this EV formula answer nowIt's obviously only my opinion i don't know the results and were dealing with incomplete information when it comes to a range for villain.
Ya I confused myself ..you did say “we are often ahead,” which wasn’t true. We are behind to overpairs before the cards come and we are not always ahead in terms of equity versus his other ranges.I just don’t understand how you say it’s obviously only your opinion when you say it like a fact to the OP in one of the comments. I’d like to hear a moderators thoughts on the hand,
We are ahead of all the over pairs with the equity roughly 55/45 which is what matters.The hand doesn't end on the flop so over pairs being ahead on the flop is irrelevant.They wont be ahead on the river 55% of the time vs our hand so we are an equity favourite by the river vs over pairs.
Originally posted by yadijavadi
I’m far better than any mod here 😉 But sorry mate, it’s an easy call lol... Even in the worst case scenario we’re getting about the right price.Well, worse case scenario is that this dude has a set and the two guys behind call with better flush and straight draws. This is not very likely though.
We’re laughing here. Call and never think about it again.
The forum over at CardsChat disagrees with you I posted the hand there.
Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Originally posted by killacasey
Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Originally posted by killacasey
Ok I thought you meant Often ahead in terms of Equity, which is not always the case, Nonetheless I still find some of your posts come off as factual rather than thoughts and speculations in posts. I will try to find out this EV formula answer nowIt's obviously only my opinion i don't know the results and were dealing with incomplete information when it comes to a range for villain.
Ya I confused myself ..you did say “we are often ahead,” which wasn’t true. We are behind to overpairs before the cards come and we are not always ahead in terms of equity versus his other ranges.I just don’t understand how you say it’s obviously only your opinion when you say it like a fact to the OP in one of the comments. I’d like to hear a moderators thoughts on the hand,
We are ahead of all the over pairs with the equity roughly 55/45 which is what matters.The hand doesn't end on the flop so over pairs being ahead on the flop is irrelevant.They wont be ahead on the river 55% of the time vs our hand so we are an equity favourite by the river vs over pairs.
what are you giving villain all overpairs JJ+ even without spades? That’s a bit loose buddy villain can have more than overpairs and there are villains left to act that’s why I want a moderator to talk here because your not getting it,
Originally posted by killacasey
Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Originally posted by killacasey
Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Originally posted by killacasey
Ok I thought you meant Often ahead in terms of Equity, which is not always the case, Nonetheless I still find some of your posts come off as factual rather than thoughts and speculations in posts. I will try to find out this EV formula answer nowIt's obviously only my opinion i don't know the results and were dealing with incomplete information when it comes to a range for villain.
Ya I confused myself ..you did say “we are often ahead,” which wasn’t true. We are behind to overpairs before the cards come and we are not always ahead in terms of equity versus his other ranges.I just don’t understand how you say it’s obviously only your opinion when you say it like a fact to the OP in one of the comments. I’d like to hear a moderators thoughts on the hand,
We are ahead of all the over pairs with the equity roughly 55/45 which is what matters.The hand doesn't end on the flop so over pairs being ahead on the flop is irrelevant.They wont be ahead on the river 55% of the time vs our hand so we are an equity favourite by the river vs over pairs.
what are you giving villain all overpairs JJ+ even without spades? That’s a bit loose buddy villain can have more than overpairs and there are villains left to act that’s why I want a moderator to talk here because your not getting it,
99+ and don't forget some pair+draws you don't have to add all combos maybe add 25%.And don't forget some flush draws and then add some air to account for variable effect.Im not only giving villain over pairs they can have all the sets and straights and some 2 pair and draws and spew.
Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Originally posted by killacasey
Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Originally posted by killacasey
Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Originally posted by killacasey
Ok I thought you meant Often ahead in terms of Equity, which is not always the case, Nonetheless I still find some of your posts come off as factual rather than thoughts and speculations in posts. I will try to find out this EV formula answer nowIt's obviously only my opinion i don't know the results and were dealing with incomplete information when it comes to a range for villain.
Ya I confused myself ..you did say “we are often ahead,” which wasn’t true. We are behind to overpairs before the cards come and we are not always ahead in terms of equity versus his other ranges.I just don’t understand how you say it’s obviously only your opinion when you say it like a fact to the OP in one of the comments. I’d like to hear a moderators thoughts on the hand,
We are ahead of all the over pairs with the equity roughly 55/45 which is what matters.The hand doesn't end on the flop so over pairs being ahead on the flop is irrelevant.They wont be ahead on the river 55% of the time vs our hand so we are an equity favourite by the river vs over pairs.
what are you giving villain all overpairs JJ+ even without spades? That’s a bit loose buddy villain can have more than overpairs and there are villains left to act that’s why I want a moderator to talk here because your not getting it,
99+ and don't forget some pair+draws you don't have to add all combos maybe add 25%.And don't forget some flush draws and then add some air to account for variable effect.Im not only giving villain over pairs they can have all the sets and straights and some 2 pair.
No dude just no....
So much salt over a single hand, guys... hahaha
Just chill... We're all here to learn, it's not the place to say that you know more about the game than the other guy...
