KK on Tc9s2c 2s 3d OoP vs flopraise

Flop and turn seems ok to me but the river is a value bet after villain checks back the turn.Villain will continue to bet better hands on the turn to charge your draws.So i think we are missing some value checking the river.

Hi there.

1. I'd play exactly the same as you did, otf cbet was mandatory and after that raise, call is the better option imo because you'll keep villain draws and weaker hands;
2. Turn i'd always x/c;
3. River it's hard.. unless I got reads i'd x/fold most of the time (if villain continued betting on turn) and as played on that board specifically I'd x/c 100% of the time.

So, vnh imo

There isnt much option on the turn oop. Since no draw hits, donking the turn would be an (option) however, to prevent him taking a freecard.
Also the second 2 coming up on the turn is giving you even more Equity. Now you beat 9 T which is great. I dont think folding the turn is an option.
I would always call the river since its a blank too, if he bets. i think its 50 /50 for a call or bet. If he likes to bluff on the river his draws or is more like the aggro guy just c/c. If he cb a T or 9 often, or worse hands just bet.

However after he CB the turn you are ahead most of the time. I dont think folding the river is an option. Your Equity is just too good. And i dont think he would cb AA on turn so you are only beat against TT or 99 or 22 ofcourse. There are much more combos on his draw semi good hands side, which would call a bet most of the time.

Lets say he only valuebets the river potsize with : TT-99,22,ATs

even against that you have with KK 30 % equity. You only need 33 % Equity to make breakeven to call potsize bet.
If he bets half pot you only need 25 % equity so even against that range you have a call if he doesent bet potsize.

its only a fold if he only ever bets the river with a set, which is really unrealistic i think.

sry guys for the late replay, but I didnt get any notifications that u have replayed.

So u guys think I´ve missed some value after he checks behind? So you guys would b/f river? arround 1/2 PSB?

yes i think so. I probably would donk the turn around potsize since the second 2 is one of the best card that can come.

after he cb the turn he is mostly on a draw like FD or QJ, so if we donk for value here against a T or 9 on the river, i dont think folding to a raise would be an option since he can turn his draw into a bluffraise. If i donk the river i would always call a raise, since his CB turn is so weak.

Id bet larger than 1/2p $2.50 even $3.50 to rep the busted draws the reason for betting smaller would be to induce bluffs from villain on the river. I think your ahead here nearly always as your rarely behind to anything that plays the flop and turn this way oop on such a wet board.

Originally posted by LMcrow
yes i think so. I probably would donk the turn around potsize since the second 2 is one of the best card that can come.

after he cb the turn he is mostly on a draw like FD or QJ, so if we donk for value here against a T or 9 on the river, i dont think folding to a raise would be an option since he can turn his draw into a bluffraise. If i donk the river i would always call a raise, since his CB turn is so weak.

If he raises in the river with 2 pair FH quads and busted draws like QJcc QJss 78cc 78ss KQcc we are flipping so yeah we have to call

why dont we shove or raise flop?

Hard to tell you how I would play the hand because we know nothing about villain, one of the first thing you should be doing is figuring out the player types of everyone at the table ,dont know what the re-raise on the flop means without some sort of info on villain he could have a set or he could be a maniac with air I dont know

"why dont we shove or raise flop?"

Would the villain call worse hands?

Maniac, you say “why not just shove or raise flop”, but I think the real options are shove or fold.

Everyone here seems scared of the set without realising that if this dude has hit a set we’re screwed even if we call.

If he has a draw, and we call, he has loads of lines he can take to further screw us. If we call and he has ATs, or JJ we miss value. If he does have some bluffs he is in complete control and can rinse us as he pleases.

Calling is just plain horrible.

Folding to the flop raise is valid but it’s a bit soft. As we have 2 Kings we ruin his o/e straight draw.

If we jam we could easily have a draw ourselves making this villain likely to call with JJ, or tp. He could even have an underpair like 88 which might call. His draws get a bad price but as we could have a draw ourselves he’ll think that if he picks up tp he will often beat us.

If we re/raise small I don’t think we rep the draw anymore, we rep only the nuts and so will miss value off JJ and tp type hands. We will hold a hand that’s at the bottom of our perceived range, this enables the villain to play perfectly against us.

When oop it’s usually a bad idea to sit back and play passively. If you don’t have position, at least take the initiative.

ya it would be nice if we knew if villain was a LAG kid or not, he can have many hands, T9 for top 2 pair, he could be doing it with AT top pair, nut club draw, JQ= OESD with 2 overs, a set, Middle pair like A9cc or something , if we knew if he was tight we could narrow it down quite a bit but I feel without knowing it might be best to fold the flop

Edit, went to equilab..if villain can do this with

QQ-99,22,ATs,QJs,T9s,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,Ac9c

you have 56% Equity, it might be EV to shove???you can possibly force some things to fold and hes already re-raised you so theres alot of dead money in the pot on the flop. It kind of depends how loose he is and if he plays draws this way, if he doesnt play his draws I might like a fold on flop its rough spot though idk

Yeah I don’t mind the fold. Even if we’re ahead we’re not likely to be for long. And we’re often miles behind.

A little information on this villain would make all the difference. If he has QJo in his range we raise this flop all day long. Basically, if he calls a lot preflop we’re jamming all day long. If he raises a lot postflop were jamming all day long too.

Without any information a fold may well be best. Any maths peeps want to throw some numbers at us for the flop fold?

Any semi decent opponent will play pretty much perfect versus 3bet shove on flop. Meaning he will call T9+ and strongest draws mainly. Possibly JJ or QQ but those might not be that strongly in villain range.

OP range assumption seems extremely optimistic. Villain really should not be raising most top pairs and even less mid pairs. Also fair amount of draws should just call cbet.

Turn we can donk bet but check is fine also. In river we can usually go for value bet.

He can’t play perfectly because we could have a draw.

He has plenty of hands to continue without using any top pair. Anyway point is hand like AT is basically getting crushed by somewhat reasonable shoving range. Either he is facing better made hand (at best 5 outs) or 12+ out draw.

Versus 22, 99+, T9s, Acc, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 7c8c, 9c8c, 6c7c range from hero AT will have 27% equity. Is that enough to stack off for villain? There is plenty of draws now. Not plain straight draws but even if we add QJ it won't improve situation (other way around).

Well he’s already committed 20% of his stack to the pot...

AT is close to BE against the range you inputted. But it’s the draws in his range that are much more juicy here. The A or K high flush draw will think we could have just Q high and so is almost certain to call.

The reason I raise is not because I particularly like it. I do think it makes money, but not much. The main reason I’m jamming that flop is because if I don’t I’m oop without the initiative on a scary board.

If the villain holds just TJ he could make me fold on the right turn/river cards. His TJ could improve to beat me. Anything could happen and I have no idea where I’m at. The villain is in complete control.

So how much equity villain need to make call?

I just said I suck at math, that wasn’t a prompt to start testing me Ghaleon!!

Errm, he needs around 40%

His call is 80, and the pot will be 200 so he needs to win 40% of the time to break even.