No tournaments. Huge variance and the length is out of my control. I like to play 1h cash game sessions. We will see next week how it feels to grind 4h a day.
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First day, absolutely horrible.
Played yesterday and this morning few hours PLO25 R&C. Suckout after suckout, cooler after cooler. In the end -5 buyins, getting back 1 buyin.
Player RIO PLO20 too, suckout after suckout, cooler after cooler. Lost 8buyins, biggest pot was 400bb deep versus 2 outer on the turn.
Played also 2K hands of PLO50 meanwhile, suckout after suckout, cooler after cooler. Lost 4 buyins with flopped trips/boat and opponent called my raise with dry overpair, hitting his 2 outer. Nut flush vs straight flush twice. And in general people kept hitting gutshots versus pot sized cbets. The usual.
Overall the day is at -650, which is not exactly what I was looking for.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
First day, absolutely horrible.Overall the day is at -650, which is not exactly what I was looking for.
Is this considered the first day of your pro career?
I thought that the pro career started in August.
Best of luck :gl:,
VS
It's weird, when you run bad, you run really bad.
Last three sessions have been the same. This morning, in first 15min I got it in three times versus 1 or 2 outers. Lost all of them. I have almost the whole damn player pool marked as green, as even regs call pot sized bets on paired boards with weak flush draws, calling raises with dry overpairs, gutshots etc. Which is great, if they just wouldn't hit them so often.
This is where the confidence is hurt. Played for three days, 6K hands at PLO50 and lost $1000. And the graph is just going steadily down. It's hard to trust your game, when you lose constantly and think that opponents made bad plays. And most of the losses have come in situations where I crush opponent on the flop and turn, and he binks a miracle backdoor river and I have put 80% of my stack in. So can't even get relief from EV graph, as that is going down as well.
Checked some stats, I am breakeven when I 3bet+. Which is insanely bad run, as I don't even 3bet lightly. Calling 3bets, EV is -700bb/100. Normal is around -200.
Sort of relief, as I know for sure that player pool is not outplaying me in 3bet+ game. Just a bad run.
For next session or two I will nit up, just to stop the downward spiral.
keep pushing, there will be times when you can look back at these struggles and just smile 
OMFG!
The tide turned for one session. And then the disaster stroke.
Spoiler
Day was profitable until the shitty half an hour started, where all my strong hands were met with nuts. Last hand of the session is pretty much the whole day:
I flop the flush and raise when reg cbets. Turn pairs the board, I bet and he calls. River makes trips on the board, I have KK on J7222 board, he donks really small and I call. He has naked AAxx. Calling my raise on monotone flop oop. And to those players I keep losing. 
There is this one reg who is quite call happy. In the last session, EVERY time I checked back the flop he pots the turn and river. Seems easily exploited, huh? Well, I made few bluff catches with strong hands. He had the nuts EVERY time. And I have no idea if he had a god mode and just kept making nuts all the time (as normally he is passive) or did he go aggro on me and I just happened to call down when he actually had the nuts. But once you lose 4-5 stacks that way, it feels like no matter you do you can't win against him.
Well, tomorrow is a new day.
I'm sooo excited about how it will develope.
I wish you all the best and that the result of your test will be a good one. Wether it means that you will take another real job or that you can handle the preasure that you are experiencing right now.
Also keep in mind that swings like this will affect your mood more, if the poker results are somewhat important. And your mood will affect your family.
(I don't want to bring you off your plan. In fact, I hope your plan works out for you. I just think that your test is a very smart idea and hope that it brings you to a good conclusion. )
Yeah, thats why I want to have 6K buffer set aside, to take off the pressure. 10-20 buyin swings are still quite common in PLO, but the longer the downswing goes on the harder it is to believe for the turnaround.
So far things are quite good, but I surely hope tomorrow is a better day.
OMFG x2!
A maniac decided to give me a lesson in PLO.
1st allin, 4bet A974 and calls my 5bet, leaving few dollars on the flop, flops nuts.
2nd allin, 3bets me with KK, calls 4bet and flops K44 and I have AA4x.
3rd allin, 200bb deep. I have AAJTds, he 4bets me and calls my 5bet. Flop J77, I shove and he has AA7x
4th allin, I have AA3 and 4bet him, he calls, flop is T33. He has KK56, allin on the flop, he makes runner runner straight
5th allin, 200bb deep, I have AKQQ and we get it in pre. He has KK.
Also lost one buyin to a reg who opens with dry KK, calls my 3 bet and flop is K48, I have AA8 with a flusdraw. I bet, he calls, turn is 8 and money goes in.
So when the EV after all that is "just" -4 buyins, I probably should be happy.
Spoiler
But oh boy we are getting closer to a situation where I get the feeling of "oh, not again..." when the first allin is lost in a session.
On the other note, I tested streaming fishing (the actual fishing) at the lake today. Seems to work, so I am going to try to improve it. If you want to hang with me, I am going to do another one tomorrow (starting at the morning CET). Stream channel is https://www.twitch.tv/fishkyyberi
Come and chat with me, so I won't be that lonely at the lake!
Playing 3K hands a day is not a problem. That would be 60K hands a month. Made variance calculation for 5bb/100 winrate, 120K hands (2 months). The probability of losing after 120K hands is 12%! If winrate goes up to 10bb/100 the probability of losing drops to 1%.
There is no way to estimate my winrate, as so far my PLO50 has just gone down. But as I am constantly wondering how opponents can make such a bad decisions during my sessions, it would be weird if my winrate would be less than 5bb/100.
Anyway, I am going to take Friday and Saturday of as it's Mid Summer Festival in here. And then hit the tables at Sunday with a fresh start!
Short evening session to rake up points for Fish Buffet.
Started with these two stack offs:
1st, I 4bet AAJ6, flop is KJ6r. Money goes in, opponent has KT86.
2nd, in 4bet pot I hit two pairs and opponent has dry Aces, money goes in. Turn and river are 2's and he wins.
At this moment I was thinking "how can this keep going on and on?". But luckily for me, I won the next allin. And few after that, and in the end booked a winning session. Decided to quit earlier, cos if I had a runbad in the end it would really hurt me mentally. Happy to avoid that.
Spoiler
Some serious nasty run here this month also. Have to put more volume in and hope for best. But mood tend to be toward pessimistic when setups and suckouts follow each other. Then some recreational players playing absurd stuff pre and nailing it. Poker is tough game sometimes.
Today has been a good day. Started the day with a fishing stream ( https://www.twitch.tv/videos/654220705), second cast and hooked a big Perch! Got a second one a bit later, and landed on the beautiful island for a break. Cleansed the fishes there too, and it was awesome to have some active viewers on the stream too! I am going to update streaming times to that fishing channel as soon as I know them.
Got home, barbequed those fillets, and played a session of PLO. It started with some bad run, but in the end the tide turned and I started to run good in allins. Caught the EV line and went past it!
Spoiler
Now its couple of days away from poker, might do a fishing stream from Saimaa (in eastern Finland) tomorrow or saturday, as we head to there for the weekend.
Back to normal. 1K hand session, lost 5 buyins. The usual, people calling 4bets with crappy QQxx, hitting set while I have AAQx on Q75r flop. Flopped top2+straight, raised pot and two played call with same gutshot. Hit it on the turn, having few dollars behind. Reg cold calling 4bet with Q885, I have AKQT, flop Q84 and SPR less than one.
It's really hard to deal with, as people make really bad decisions all the time but just seem to hit setups and coolers and draws against odds constantly.
I thought taking few days off would be a good thing. Played two sessions today, little under 2K hands, and I am just sick of this.
Spoiler
With the rake my EV graph is going down too, and the story is always the same. Either I get most of the stack in with better hand, only to get a horrible runout. Or it's a sick cooler in 3bet/4bet/5bet pot. Today a reg decided to 3bet A977 and call my 4bet, only to hit the set. Another reg 4bets only AA, and got that A on the flop constantly.
I am trying to convince myself that it will turn. Losses have came from spots where I open, and I know my ranges are tight and I don't do crazy shit postflop. Or they have came in 3bet/4bet pots, where I should have an edge over the field. But it's damn hard to trust that, when your every session goes down multiple buyins.
I even run cold in Fish Buffet, got $40 rakeback for raking over $400. *** this ****.
I've had the same kind of day playing PLO8 -- it has gone on for two days actually.
I so hate losing to runner runner crap
But they call and call so how do you stop betting with the nut straight when you know they're going to call with their backdoor flush or backdoor low.
(then hit both)
But just try it yourself to see where it goes ♠_cry:
Not two minutes after I posted that...
Pacific Poker - $0.05 PL Hi/Lo - Omaha Hi/Lo - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: $0.86
SB: $2.60
Hero (BB): $6.05
UTG: $0.67
UTG+1: $1.00
MP: $5.57
MP+1: $0.71
CO: $7.24
SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A♥:5♠:4♣:3♣:
fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.12, MP calls $0.12, MP+1 calls $0.12, fold, fold, SB calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.07
Flop: ($0.60, 5 players) 2♦:K♣:2♣:
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP bets $0.19, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.19, fold
Turn: ($0.98, 2 players) 5♣:
Hero checks, MP checks
River: ($0.98, 2 players) 7♠:
Hero bets $0.98, MP calls $0.98
Hero shows A♥:5♠:4♣:3♣: (High: Flush, King High, Low: 7532A)
(Pre 39%, Flop 34%, Turn 83%)
MP mucks 2♥:A♣:4♥:T♥: (High: Three of a Kind, Twos, Low: 7542A)
(Pre 61%, Flop 66%, Turn 17%)
Hero wins $1.40
Rake paid $0.14
Hero wins $1.40