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Nightmare flop for pocket rockets

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LahtiPelican
Joined: 27.04.2013

Stats of villain on a 240 hand sample:

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 5 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $5.12 (102 bb)
CO: $6.48 (130 bb)
BU: $7.79 (156 bb)
SB: $2.09 (42 bb)
BB (Hero): $5.44 (109 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with A A
1 fold, CO raises to $0.17, BTN calls $0.17, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $0.70, CO calls $0.53, BTN calls $0.53

Flop: ($2.12) 7 4 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.65, CO folds, BTN raises to $7.09 (all-in), Hero ??

Preflop is standard I think. Maybe I could raise a bit higher out of positon, like $0,8.

Flop is disgusting for pocket rockets. After my cbet and his raise, I only have to call $3,09 to win $11,51, so I am pretty much committed. After reviewing, I don't really like my line OTT, but I am not sure what would be better.
:heart:If I cbet, can I fold after a raise,
:heart:Should I just ch/fold here? It seems a bit weak to me, isn't it?
:heart:How would the situation change if I had A♠:?


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6 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi LahtiPelican,
I agree with your assessment -- flops don't get much worse for AA.

I think that A♠: or not, bet 1/3 pot OTF.
If holding A♠: by all means call the shove, otherwise fold.

I'm curious to read what the real experts think though...

Cheers,
VS


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pisiattu
Joined: 01.04.2010

If you bet a big size, you can't fold imho.

It is a sick call because when you are ahead oppo has equity, when you are behind you are drawing dead :(

Oppo looks like a passive fish, fold is better than call imho


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LahtiPelican
Joined: 27.04.2013

Thank you!


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londonsystem
Joined: 19.11.2008

You should fold, I think.

Make it simple, in NL5, you cbet strong after PF 3bet, and when opp push, forget about the Equity and fold.

BTN called PF, and raise shoved against your big c-bet. In NL5, how often it is a pure bluff? 50%, 30%, or 10%? I doubt it is more than 30%, especially from a TAG opp with 80% fold to cbet stat (it is a small sample size, though).

Think this from another angle. You 3bet PF and bet big from OOP. You expected opp to fold and you take an easy pot. That could be another reason to bet big in this kind of Flop. You would lost about 50BB, instead of full stack, saving 50BB. Because you have already put into 50BB, you should punt 50BB? I doubt it.


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I don't see how a conlusion can be reached with this sample size.


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LahtiPelican
Joined: 27.04.2013

Same thing happened today, but I had the ace is spades. I am glad I asked this before!


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