Oh man 
?(, I am no MSS player:f_biggrin: Forgot we are absolutely totally committed after investing a single bb in a hand.
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Q 14
I dont understand how 20% is considered "tremendous equity". I can see why bet/raise is better than check/call, but why not bet/fold?
Hi Luepingguo,
Welcome to PokerStrategy.com! 
I'm not sure why you think that you have only 20% equity in this spot.
I put the hand into Equilab which shows:
This assumes that CO has a king and one other card.
Board: K♣2♠3♣
Equity Win Tie
CO 49.18% 49.18% 0.00% { K2s+, K2o+ }
BB 50.82% 50.82% 0.00% { Ac2c }
Ac2c is actually ahead here.
We don't bet/fold because we have too good a chance to improve our hand.
I got it wrong too.
I chose check/raise all-in.
I figured that if I'm going to bet, I'm getting it in, but I would be quite happy with a free card.
But their logic for bet/raise includes the added bonus that they might fold better small pairs.
Cheers,
VS
Hi,
Thanks a lot for the quick reply.
You calculated the Equity for the flop, but in the question the turn card came in 7d, which doesnt help us at all and pretty much halves the equity! Any bet is pretty much a bluff. Am I missing something?
Originally posted by Luepingguo
Hi,
Thanks a lot for the quick reply.
You calculated the Equity for the flop, but in the question the turn card came in 7d, which doesnt help us at all and pretty much halves the equity! Any bet is pretty much a bluff. Am I missing something?
I don't know -- I might be -- let's add the turn card and see how it changes.
Did you install Equilab? It is free to download, and free to use, and one of the best tools for analysing spots like this.
If not, what tool are you using here?
You are quite right, the equity drops sharply:
Board: K♣2♠3♣ 7♦
Equity Win Tie
CO 69.03% 69.03% 0.00% { K2s+, K2o+ }
BB 30.97% 30.97% 0.00% { Ac2c }
If anyone else wants to chime in, we're looking at Q14 on this quiz:
https://www.pokerstrategy.com/quiz/weekly/2072/
Let's assume that we bet 1/2 pot -- I can't remember what Mid-Stack Strategy uses for CBet sizing, but OTF in this example, they have hero bet nearly full pot.
If villain calls, fine -- let's see a river
There is now about a buck in the pot, and our initial stack was only $2, so the pot is nearly half our stack.
If we completely miss the river we can still fold.
If villain raises, we raise, because there is no point in just calling and if we fold we're just chucking $ away.
How often do we need to be right?
Let's assume we bet half pot (25 cents) so villain is looking at a pot of 82 cents
Let's further assume that he doubles that -- so the pot would now be $1.32 --
We only started with $2. If we just call we have so little left we're never folding the river, so we just get it in.
How often do we need to be right?
Assuming it goes to showdown:
Our equity OTT is 30% his is 70% (I took a bit of liberty with rounding)
We need to win -- either by villain folding or by getting to showdown -- 70% of the time to break even.
I was working with their answer of bet/raise.
I still like my answer of check/shove.
we get a free card if he checks behind
We're getting it in anyway with (perhaps) more fold equity.
downside of check/shove:
he can check behind -- if we bet he might fold right away
downside of bet/fold:
if we're ever going to fold this (I hope not) then check/fold is the way to go, but there's too much equity for that
I rather hope someone else will answer -- this is an interesting spot for sure...