Originally posted by Kyyberi
With my run, I am pretty sure that Trump wins tomorrow. You can blame it on me.
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Originally posted by Kyyberi
With my run, I am pretty sure that Trump wins tomorrow. You can blame it on me.
Good, I got a $10 free bet on him.
I invested in index funds. Way better than to support the scams at GG. What I saw in PLO tournaments was bad players selling 90% shares with markup 1.9. Lol.
I am slightly against the whole markup thing. If you sell 75% of your tournament with markup 1.4 you will make instant profit of busting the tournament in the first hand. I understand selling stakes for two reasons:
- To reduce the variance when you play higher than normal (series) or you don't play that much tournaments to bring up the volume
- For fun, or as a servive (discord groups etc.)
But for someone who grinds tournaments with good bankroll it doesn't make sense to sell shares. Unless his markup is so high that he makes more from the shares than from actual tournaments.
Dear god I run bad in big pots. Late night session, got it in two times for 400bb pot. First was KK vs QQ+fd on KQx, flush draw got the obviously. Second was on the turn with JT88 versus KT64 on 845T board. 200bb stack off on the turn with a gutshot. And got there.
I didn't run that bad in small pots, although there is one calling station who just demolishes me. During the weekend he won preflop allin AAJx vs AJJx versus me, today he called my 4bet with AJJx and the flop was J43r. I had AAJx of course. Wish I could have that luck. After those beats somewhat breakeven session feels like a win.
Played an interesting session in the stream today, and showed some of my run. How to lose back to back allins with the best hand. I managed to run well too, so it's not only bad beats. I had to stop evening session for a while, as this happened in 15 minutes:
- All-in, overpair+fd vs 3 outer gutshot. Made it.
- All-in, overcard, OESD+fd vs dry overpair. Run it twice, lost both.
- All-in, top2 vs overcards, runner runner better 2 pairs.
- Maniac cold call my 4bet with 6553, flop 533 and I have AA+fd, SPR 1.
After that last hand I opted to sitout and take a breath.
After the breathing break, second half was better and managed to climb back a little. Still, I was constantly scratching my head wondering how can people call raises on 955 flops with naked TT etc. And then hitting that T on the turn vs my 99xx. There was a good back to back 3 hands in different tables, one of my nemesis had nuts oop and I pretty much lost the minimum with really strong hands. My intuition said to me that he might be slowplaying strong hands, and therefore he was probably quite pissed off that he didn't get value for quads, nut straight and nut flush. I had full house in first, 2nd nut straight in second 3rd nut flush in third. All he got in those was my cbet on the flop, turns and rivers went checked. 
He was not a believer:
Spoiler
He opened and cbet small on the flop. Turn he check-called, and then check-snap called river. Holdem player maybe? Haven't seen him before.
Slow players around the world, lets unite!
Spoiler
Flop goes checked, turn goes checked, river is checked to me. I thought I could valuebet 2nd nuts there. But BB raised and MP shoved. Not sure why would they slow play nuts there when everyone has checked the whole damn hand. And I think both of them could have bet big on the turn. Probably they both were drooling after I made the bet, as their master plan worked!
Running like Kyyberi.
I placed bets on Biden before the election, and when it started everything shifted. Trump became huge favorite. Of course.
I placed a bet to Trump to minimize damage, after that Biden became huge favorite. Now when his odds were down to 1,2 I placed a significant bet it was considered to be "sure". As soon as I placed the bet, Biden jumped to 1,4 and above.
In NFL I have placed a bet against Raiders in most matches, and I think so far this season Raiders has won all of those games.
So if you want something to happen, let me know. I will place a bet against it.
Would be nice to post about the turning tide. But no. Just can't run normally. Today I lost 8 buyins, EV was +2 buyins profit. Played three sessions, each one of those started with 2-3 buyins down in the first 5mins, while having the best equity when the money went in. Just can't hit, nor hold. With something called "good luck" I could be easily 10 or even 20 buyins up today. Lost to 2 outers three times, if those three would have held I would have 8 buyins more. Few AA vs AA losses, set vs nothing losses (opponent had a habit to get it in with only backdoors and making them) and way too many lost flips with 65-80% equity.
Rakeback and Biden are keeping me alive, but this is beyond ridiculous.
Lol. AA52 on A43r flop, 4bet pot deep. I bet small on the flop, opponent calls. Turn is J, I shove and opponent calls. Has T954 with a flush draw that opened on the turn. Gets there, 400bb pot. Cold called preflop my 4bet with that T954ss.
Oh, I did have good news too!
I am starting to do scheduled streams at Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays at 9am CET. Starting this week's Thursday.
Same same, nothing different. Session -6 buyins. Got stacks in 5 times with a set/boat vs dry overpair. Two of those were 200bb deep. In those 5 hands, if all of those 90% equities would have held, session would have been over 6 buyins in profits. But I just can't run. On top of that, had top2+fd on KJ4ss flop in 500bb 3way situation. Money went in, opponent had T653 with a backdood flush draw (decided to 4bet that one), and made his backdoor flush. Also flopped a straight in 3way, similar situation and opponent stacked off with bare AA, 400bb pot. Made runner runner full house.
We all have a point, where we start to think if it's just variance or is there something more. I am not there yet, as I also suck out every now and then. But as I am running somewhere around 60-70 buyins under EV for past month, it starts to seem really unprobable. But as in all variance simulations there is that one unlucky graph that runs like shit for 100K hands, that's me. It should be probable that it turns at some point, all I can do is to wait for that. And hope I don't run out of money before that.
I bet on vile Biden at 4/1 then took profit when he was 1.000000000000001 and lumped on good guy Trump at 20's. He's gonna win btw. It's all a puppet show.
You placed money on Trump? Insanity.
But theoretically speaking, what would be the right odds for Trump at this moment? This is for everyone, if you had $100 to bet on Trump, at what odds you would consider it to be breakeven?
Only real chance is Biden dying that could turn the result imo. Not sure if that would really change it or would Harris then become president? Would bet on Biden still be won?
Trump has shown absolutely zero evidence of any fraud going on. So if he somehow still wins one could really ask whatever there is point to do any election in USA and whatever Trump is actual dictator at that point. That would probably be end of USA in many ways.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
But theoretically speaking, what would be the right odds for Trump at this moment? This is for everyone, if you had $100 to bet on Trump, at what odds you would consider it to be breakeven?
Impossible to tell with the information that's available, there's too much that's going on behind closed doors.
It's definitely a big long shot, though, so I wouldn't put $100 on it even if the odds were profitable, unless you have a bankroll exceeding $100K or so. Some degree of fraud will be proven for sure, but the margins are just too big to overcome, I think. Still, not over until it's over.
I still think he was a good bet before election night, and he certainly would have been a profitable cash-out in the middle of the election.
Originally posted by ghaleon
Only real chance is Biden dying that could turn the result imo. Not sure if that would really change it or would Harris then become president? Would bet on Biden still be won?
Yes, the vice president would then be next in line. Whether the bet wins depends on the exact conditions. Winning party bets would certainly pay off, and unless the bet implied him to take office on January 20th, a Biden bet should still pay if the projected results get confirmed and he were to die before taking office, since he still would have technically won the election then.
Btw, I ran a DOS simulation to see how the results would have been if Trump had faced Pokerstrategy trolls instead of Joe Biden:
Spoiler
(I actually had him run for the Democrats, even though the colors are reversed in this - no way I'm running for them.)
