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JJ 3bet/5bet Pre

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Incog
Joined: 18.08.2006

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 91.8 BB
MP: 98.6 BB
CO: 180.2 BB
Hero (BTN): 123.4 BB
SB: 127.2 BB
BB: 369 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♦ J♣

fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, CO raises to 12 BB, Hero raises to 36 BB, CO calls 24 BB

Flop: (73.4 BB, 2 players) 8♠ 8♦ Q♦
CO checks, Hero bets 30 BB, CO raises to 60 BB ... Hero :f_rolleyes:?

Villain, was I TAG/LAG with very high AF (especially high 3bet ... but only 100 hand on him)!

Well, what can I say ?! Afterwards I didn't like my 5bet ... 4betcall would have been better, I think. Thoughts?

OTF: I feel I have to bet for protection and vs him (aggro), even if I would never do this because the pot is so big already. <== This I now realize is very wrong... since I would want to trap(check Flop) him, right? But is this even possible with the Q on the board?


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3 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

If you chose the high-variance route against a LAG, do you continue that route, or do you bail?
At what point do you switch to the low-variance route.

Let's check his hand possibilities:

Board: 8♠8♦Q♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     88.55%  88.50%   0.06% { QQ+, 88, Q2s+, 82s+, Q2o+, 82o+ }
BU     11.45%  11.39%   0.06% { JJ }

The given range for opponent is all the hands that currently beat you. 280 combos
The rest are bluffs or draws (primarily two random diamonds of which you block one)

Your equity against his already winning range is 11%
If you spike a J suddenly you're a 93% favourite.

You have half your stack in the pot already.

I'm torn here.
The correct turn play is to check it back I think, but once you've launched the artillery barrage, you need to follow up with the full onslaught.
I thought some analysis w/ Equilab would help, but it makes this decision harder, but my gut says, just jam it.
It is another of those math vs gut hands.

I really want to hear what the experts say


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Furlisht
Joined: 09.09.2007

Without proper reads on vilain, i would say his preflop line screams monster hand. The C/R OTF seems also trappy

I'd call the min4bet pre and reevaluate OTF, probably only continuing with a set. Without reads on this kind of vilain, i prefer playing ultra nitty on these spots.


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

If you blow the pot this big you have spr 1 otf and I shove flop. However I would call his 3bet and call a small flop bet. If you turn 2 oc just let go


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