J8s - nuts on turn - very bad river run-out

By the river, MP has less than 1/2 pot bet left.
He will likely call with Top-pair type hands, 2-pair or sets.
He may also have a flush or better straight, but that's the chance you take.

For me, I bet just enough to put him all-in.
I sometimes bet an amount to leave him a tiny stack.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
By the river, MP has less than 1/2 pot bet left.
He will likely call with Top-pair type hands, 2-pair or sets.
He may also have a flush or better straight, but that's the chance you take.

For me, I bet just enough to put him all-in.
I sometimes bet an amount to leave him a tiny stack.

Villain has 43 bb left on the river. Which is more than 3/4 pot.

Originally posted by monteCarlol
Villain has 43 bb left on the river. Which is more than 3/4 pot.

Weird -- I added it up wrong.
Still stack-to-pot ratio is less than 1.
I would hate to fold here, but bet/call might be an option

Pre-Just fold. If we open "wider", I would choose something like 87s or 76s. We face less domination from some of the strongest portions of his unpaired range (tons of weak Jx in a broken stacked fishes range here). We can flop nutted on boards where he has top pair (like 87s, on a T96 board where he has some weakish Jx draws and stuff like JT, QJ and KJ which we crush). Also, Ax will pay off quite on an A76 tt board when we have 76s.

Flop-I am quite sure solver is going to almost range check this flop. MP should basically never call an UTG open. He is broken stacked (fish likely). I think no matter how we spin his range. Wider than "standard" range, we are only going to pick up a few points of equity vs the tighter more condensed range. Even worse for us if he traps instead of 3 betting. However, assuming fish, and assuming we are betting vs check/deciding, I would go quite big and be very selective. I think this particular combo plays better as a check/call. If we are simply looking at the 4 combos of J8s we can have here, I would pick the J8dd to bluff here along with the value I choose to bet. It has the same straight outs but, in the even we get raised here, we lose the least when we bet/fold with no back door equity. We x/c here and can dump all of the Axss/88-55 or so and the continue range looks pretty tasty (just tons of broadway hands with equity, nutted combos, etc.).

Turn-X/Call or X/Raise here. If he raised flop tightly, he is going to bet that "safe" card and we can decide. If he raised flop widely, that turn is a brick AND looks like a brick for our range too.

River-As played, I would just check/decide. We have a ton of Qx+ that can continue here.

Small bet/call flop, huge donk bet turn = ??? Very fishy line, almost always nuts played poorly.

Fold preflop, you can add better hands, no matter how weak people are, J8s DOES NOT play well vs any calling range.

Bet bigger on the flop, or check/call it, like you would do with strong and medium made hands.

Whatever you do, do not donk bet the turn, it just makes no sense and you lose a ton of value, even braindead fish can figure out what happened and would only continue with nutted draws.

Surrender river, you are crushed. You have 0 Qx hands here after the previous streets and basically never a flush and it is super obvious. Yes, someone may occasionally bluff you but you simply have to overfold in this spot.

@GridironAssassin and @Fanko thanks for the analysis.
I am wondering when I x/c flop with draws, do I usually x/c or x/r turn when it arrives, and never lead even if my hand is vulnerable? If villain checks back they get a free card and the pot stays small.

pot is 54bb opp have 44bb easy jam for max value, no other way if somehow opp shows QJ it's your fault for playing J8s utg

Originally posted by onetimebigtime
pot is 54bb opp have 44bb easy jam for max value, no other way if somehow opp shows QJ it's your fault for playing J8s utg

I did jam and I was wondering if it was a mistake. Did you consider the board? I'm beat by any Qx.