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ATo - Top pair on a super wet board

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DodoBrabbel
Joined: 21.08.2009

Villain plays 12/9 over 34 hands, so I will assume TAG player.

Pre-flop I think villain calling range is mostly hands that look pretty but are not strong enough for a 3Bet, something like TT-55,AQs-A9s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-AJo,KQo.

On the flop I thought to get called by worse hands a lot, so I cbet. But now it seems villain folds very little, and only hands I beat. Checking Equilab I have just over 50% equity against the calling range, so the cbet is for thin value I guess?

The K on the turn scared me a little since KT and KJ now beat me. Checking Equilab indeed I now have 43% equity against villain's range. Since I am behind and better hands will not fold, I guess the check behind is ok?

River completes many draws, I am behind and I don't see a bluff working often, so I check behind again.

Thoughts?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 99.4 BB
SB: 108.2 BB
BB: 75.6 BB
UTG: 218.8 BB
MP: 185.2 BB
Hero (CO): 127.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♥ A♦

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 3 BB, fold

Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) 9♥ 8♥ T♣
BB checks, Hero bets 6.8 BB, BB calls 6.8 BB

Turn: (23 BB, 2 players) K♦
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (23 BB, 2 players) J♥
BB checks, Hero checks

BB shows Q♣ A♥ (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 74%, Flop 30%, Turn 16%)
Hero mucks T♥ A♦ (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 26%, Flop 70%, Turn 84%)
BB wins 22 BB


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3 replies
TFL999
Joined: 18.09.2012

I would maybe bluff this river.
12/9 villain looks quite nittie. You can have plenty of draws played this way by taking a free card on the turn. And most people Will bet out a straight or flush on the river.
(Obviously you would get called this time)


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DodoBrabbel
Joined: 21.08.2009

The reason I don't like bluffing the river is because people just dont want to fold sets, or even two pair. But maybe players are super scared of the flush and will fold.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

One of the benefits of bluffing here is that you get caught bluffing.
It makes it much more likely that you will get called when you have the flush.

You don't even need to show the hand down for this to work.
Bet/fold is fine -- just so that they see that they can "push you off" a hand.

You need to do things like this very infrequently of course.


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