JJ BU into BB checkraises

People can play turns tricky with sets hoping you bet and i think that's a mistake you made tbh you have no reason to bet this turn take the free river card and take your showdown maybe pick off a bluff on the river depending on the run out.

villain's turn sizing most likely indicates recreational player or weak reg.
your own line is probably quite unbalanced too... check turn -> call river would have been an easier line, as well.
i disagree with your range asssessment, his line is strange, but i don't really see many people taking this specific line with the Axhh (he's repping more polar than that) and, while there may be a number of other random draws, they might just barrel turn themselves or take the odds you're giving on a call.

the river card is one of the best in terms of cutting value combos and villain is really polar here, though to be honest, it feels more like a set randomly clicking buttons than anything else. i wouldn't blame a call on this particular card though.
when we win, i expect to see 87, random hearts and complete air rather than pair+fd and twopair turned into bluffs

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
People can play turns tricky with sets hoping you bet and i think that's a mistake you made tbh you have no reason to bet this turn take the free river card and take your showdown maybe pick off a bluff on the river depending on the run out.

I think there are just way too many draws and top pairs in the opponents range that we can extract value from. What range do you think he's on after the flop checkraise and turn check?

Originally posted by Tomaloc
villain's turn sizing most likely indicates recreational player or weak reg.
your own line is probably quite unbalanced too... check turn -> call river would have been an easier line, as well.
i disagree with your range asssessment, his line is strange, but i don't really see many people taking this specific line with the Axhh (he's repping more polar than that) and, while there may be a number of other random draws, they might just barrel turn themselves or take the odds you're giving on a call.

the river card is one of the best in terms of cutting value combos and villain is really polar here, though to be honest, it feels more like a set randomly clicking buttons than anything else. i wouldn't blame a call on this particular card though.
when we win, i expect to see 87, random hearts and complete air rather than pair+fd and twopair turned into bluffs

Yeah, I kind of agree that the Axhh hands barrel the turn a decent portion of the time. So do you think a range like 99,55,33,A9s,95s,93s,KQh,KJh,QJh,KTh,87h,86h,76h,K5h,75h,65h,74h,64h,54h,A9o seems plausible? Our JJ has 39% equity in that case, making it a +EV call on the river. That range SEEMS reasonable to me, but I guess I'm not fully convinced that all of those busted draw/air hands are in an unknown NL10 villain's hand.

I also agree the check on the turn makes this hand much easier, but given the wide range of air/draws in opponent's range I think there is definitely extra value we can extract, no?

Originally posted by Washdogg
I also agree the check on the turn makes this hand much easier, but given the wide range of air/draws in opponent's range I think there is definitely extra value we can extract, no?

against air it's clearly better to let him bluff the river.
if you give him enough air hands you might even find the odds to call literally any river card, he basically can't win, and he might not even always bet when he improves to pair of K/Q.

so, you're betting against draws/9x or worse, but it's a pretty awkward spot for your particular hand.
most villains are barreling a draw, or villain might have switched to check/call mode with Axhh, or villain can do what he did... so, the only thing that betting this hand accomplishes is trying to get a cheap showdown, which doesn't really seem necessary at all. we can choose to call against villain's polarized range if he bombs the river.