BTN with bottom set

Andrew Seidel says in his book easy game, that betting yourself is the best way of extracting value and I stick by it 😃

P.s. he says it better, I am just bad at quoting

Originally posted by SamoB25
Andrew Seidel says in his book easy game, that betting yourself is the best way of extracting value and I stick by it 😃

P.s. he says it better, I am just bad at quoting

Yeah, in general.
I generally prefer bet/fold to check/call for example, because often there is no need for the 'call' part because opponent folds.
The hard part of the bet/fold line is finding the fold.

I think in this case though, I think flatting the turn is better.
The only hands that beat me here are J4, 44 and 43 -- all fairly unlikely for opponents betting pattern.
His betting pattern indicates AJ+ QQ+ and flush draws, all of which I would like to keep in the pot.
I figured he was sticky, and I t̶h̶o̶u̶g̶h̶t̶ hoped he would call

Villains line is really weird with bet/calling flop and lead the turn again.
I wouldn't be surprised villain could call a raise again with a weaker hand. To bad villain folds this time.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I am of the belief in a hand like this, is that if villain has quads or pocket jacks you are losing a stack no matter what, cause i know for a fact i am not folding.... so i would call the turn to give villain a chance to play caught up hoping he has a fd and not trip 4's and a blank river, then if he leads again i am shipping it, and if he checks i am value betting like 1/2pot -2/3 pot to maybe get a call.

I don't know if you have to raise the flop as villain should not have too many FD's and when you do raise your range is very polarized but you don't typically have too many bluffs on this flop re-raise besides a small amount of NFD's like weaker Axhh combo's, KThh,QThh, T9hh,98hh,87hh,76hh. Our premium hands that would raise the flop are basically AJ, JJ,44 and 33. If villain c-bets very frequently on most boards that also changes things because he could be c-betting a flop like this when theoretically he's typically not supposed to be betting this flop versus BTN all that often as Equities should be close and the J hits a fair portion of BTN's range since it will be somewhat condensed when called LJ's Raise First In. When villain does c-bet this flop he is supposed to do so with his own premium hands and draws but the thing is a good portion of his range is marginal hands on this board that would rather check, and he is OOP. I think when trying to figure out an opponent's range on
a board like this paying attention to their flop c-betting tendencies and frequencies can go a long way. On the flop Villain has a FD only about 10% of the time. Since we don't have a ton of bluffs and most of villains range shouldn't be particularly strong I don't mind just a call, but I don't think a raise is bad. When we raise flop we are polarizing our range and villain decides to call.

I think our flop raise is maybe a bit too large, maybe 2.5x would be more ideal since we are in position and have a strong holding. we opt for 4x and this gives villain 2.7:1 meaning villain needs hands that have 27% equity versus Hero's range to
make this call. If we assume Hero has some bluffs in his range villains hands that would have 27% or more to call would be
his heart draws, his PP's, his Jx . AK,AQ,AJ,AT of hearts and clubs. and all good off suited aces with a heart. On the turn I don't think he should
be doing much of any leading out as the turn card should not really effect his range at all besides a hand like A4s but you have 44 yourself. I think villains leading turn range is basically over-pairs and JJ, after you re-raise the flop I don't know how often people are going to lead bet as a bluff with a FD or something but would like to hear others thoughts on this. I think on the turn we should just call because if we raise again it also seems very value heavy. and what value hands does hero have on the turn that would do this ? basically only sets and this puts a ton of pressure on villains Over-pairs and AJ. I dont mind a call on the turn and then you can re-access the river to try and get maximum value .