4BI under EV + 3 BI KK/AA + 4 BI set/set /3 in 3B+ 1 in 4B pots/ + 1 BI nut flush vs str flush! pure 15 BI + countless more ridiculous suck outs OTR for at least 5 BIs! In 3400 hands!
People don't know what to run bad means!
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You are definitely right. Let's discuss hands:
The one with 77 - why not just fold preflop rather than play against 2 opponents oop? Even we flop a set it will be hard to realize our equity and play for big pot when we play OOP. Opponents can easily control the pot IP and see free cards and even hit better hands and stack us - easy fold pre. Postflop why are you leading this dry board - easy check/raise?
AT hand what is the reason to play it so passively with top two pairs on this draw heavy board? I will definitely prefer raise the turn and play for stacks and accept my fate when villain have better hand. It seems that you are afraid to loose a stack.
AK hand - if we are going to fold TPTK in 4bet pot why don't we just fold it preflop? What kind of opponent is this?
I think there's one crucial thing you don't seem to understand. In Cash games you don't want to play for stacks with marginal hands, you much rather play small pots with those type of hands and a lot of profit/loss (depends how good you are) comes from small pots. You can of course keep complaining how insanely unlucky you are when you loose a hand and keep posting hands where you loose to a bad beat. Every player will have a bad beat/unlucky set up, but those aren't the hands that are costing you money in long term. Instead if you were to focus on your gameplay, analyze small pots and identify your leaks when it comes to battling for smaller pots, you perhaps could become a winning player. It's pointless for you to post those suck outs/bad beats, that's completely out of your control. If you really want to improve, maybe post your stats/graphs and hands that you were put in tough and complicated spots. Those are the hands where you can get constructive criticism and study what would the best play be in such situations.
NITS and stations this is what they are! Those are sick exploitative plays vs never bluffing very passive opponents with AF 0.5-1.5!
You are right about SB in GTO! This is not GTO! I don't have calling range from SB by default! In some cases vs nitty ranges pre and over calling/over playing post the EV of call is significantly higher than 3B or C! Even vs aggro post non folding pre opponents the call will provide higher EV!
Imagine calling OTF wet 3w with top set! This is why I went for it OTT! Such nit imagine! Vs super passive players you should def have a donking range, because they will xb a lot and you are OOP in 3w! The donk bet in this cases is def with significantly higher EV!
TOP to is vs super nitty range post! I should pot control, because there is no value in raising even with top 2, but turning them into a bluff! It was even hard to call him OTR, hoped for overplayed TP or lower 2, probably BE call! It could be even pure fold vs him/wasn't sure at that point!
I could provide stats for the hands I am posting if there is interest, ,it will explain a lot why such plays were made!
Originally posted by greatpk
Funny how you complain when only one hand (AA) from these posted ones was ahead preflop.
Such troll! Imagine to be so bad at poker to look at the preflop hand/hand E, but not at the range and to not look at the stack off E of the hand vs range at least/range vs range is more complicated/!
Originally posted by vengeance77
NITS and stations this is what they are! Those are sick exploitative plays vs never bluffing very passive opponents with AF 0.5-1.5!You are right about SB in GTO! This is not GTO! I don't have calling range from SB by default! In some cases vs nitty ranges pre and over calling/over playing post the EV of call is significantly higher than 3B or C! Even vs aggro post non folding pre opponents the call will provide higher EV!
Imagine calling OTF wet 3w with top set! This is why I went for it OTT! Such nit imagine! Vs super passive players you should def have a donking range, because they will xb a lot and you are OOP in 3w! The donk bet in this cases is def with significantly higher EV!
TOP to is vs super nitty range post! I should pot control, because there is no value in raising even with top 2, but turning them into a bluff! It was even hard to call him OTR, hoped for overplayed TP or lower 2, probably BE call! It could be even pure fold vs him/wasn't sure at that point!I could provide stats for the hands I am posting if there is interest, ,it will explain a lot why such plays were made!
I was referring more to stats of yours in general. What's VPIP/PFR/3bet/4bet etc. That could give others a brief idea if there are some leaks in your preflop play to begin with.
About 77 hand where you hit a set MW, you are wrong about having +EV with donk bet. Check/raise is the highest EV in this spot.
You are also wrong about A10 hand as well, even if you're vs a NIT, he still has KQs/AQo/AKo/KK/QQ/JJ/KJs, so you do want to bet the turn, as you only loose to 1010/AA hands according to your reads and you have blockers for both. Therefore you are missing tons of value vs all the hands he could possibly have even if you have marked him as a NIT.
And I'll repeat my self yet again, a lot of your profit/loss comes from small pots as well. Also I think you could improve at your bet sizing as well. For example that 77 hand, if you chose to donk bet MW, why not make it 65-85% of pot size on such draw heavy board? You will get called by Kx and all flush draw combo's and when you bet just 1/2 pot, you are giving correct price for draws to call you. I'm sure there are more similar spots where you are either missing value or having wrong bet sizing, maybe that's something worth to take a look at?
With AT if I raise there I will turn them into a bluff vs this thing! I would gladly xrso vs wide enough ranges!
donk i alrdy too strong multiway, but vs passive players prob is more EV in vacuum! Just they are too many fish regs and nit regs like him, that will recognize the size diff! That is my standard donk size for multi way wet and 1/3 if dry!
[converted_hand][hand_history]Pacific Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3
UTG: $4.19 (83.8 bb)
CO: $8.09 (161.8 bb) 42/31 AF 1.7 64h
Hero (BTN): $13.72 (274.4 bb)
SB: $3.10 (62 bb) 39/5 3B 4.8 AF 4.2 59h
BB: $4.75 (95 bb)
SB posts $0.02, BB posts $0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has J♥ A♥
UTG raises to $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.47, SB calls $0.45, 2 folds, CO calls $0.37
Flop: ($1.56, 3 players) 8♥ 2♦ 5♥
SB bets $1.02, CO calls $1.02, Hero calls $1.02
Turn: ($4.62, 3 players) A♦
SB bets $1.61 and is all-in, CO calls $1.61, Hero calls $1.61
River: ($9.45, 3 players) 7♠
CO checks, Hero checks
Not really happy OTT prob BE crying call! Though about folding actually,, but couldn't for such odds!
[converted_hand][hand_history]Pacific Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3
SB: $4.93 (98.6 bb)
BB: $5.48 (109.6 bb)
UTG: $5.00 (100 bb)
CO: $5.07 (101.4 bb) 18/17 f3B100/2 AF 0.5 66h
Hero (BTN): $5.37 (107.4 bb)
SB posts $0.02, BB posts $0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A♣ J♠
fold, CO raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30
Flop: ($0.97, 2 players) A♠ 7♣ 6♠
CO checks, Hero bets $0.47, CO calls $0.47
Turn: ($1.91, 2 players) 8♥
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($1.91, 2 players) A♥
CO bets $1.26, Hero folds
Opens 9% from CO!
I though about 25 OTT very very thin, because he is so nitty!
Most prob AQ or AK, could be FH.
Originally posted by vengeance77
With AT if I raise there I will turn them into a bluff vs this thing! I would gladly xrso vs wide enough ranges!
donk i alrdy too strong multiway, but vs passive players prob is more EV in vacuum! Just they are too many fish regs and nit regs like him, that will recognize the size diff! That is my standard donk size for multi way wet and 1/3 if dry!
How is top 2 pair on wet board a bluff? I listed you hands that your opponent is very likely to have in such spots and most of those hands have potential to out draw you by river and are very likely to call a bet on turn, so why wouldn't you bet your self?
If you think ''ohh it's good I didn't bet cause he had 1010s'' then that's completely wrong mentality. He is very unlikely to have 1010s/AAs as you have blockers for those. And you miss a ton of value by not betting in these spots.
77's hand, again wrong thought process. You want to price all drawing hands and all Kx. If you bet bigger in sizing and they fold, you still win the pot, if they call you are giving em incorrect odds to chase the draws and therefore being on winning side long term.
Originally posted by vengeance77
[converted_hand][hand_history]Pacific Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3SB: $4.93 (98.6 bb)
BB: $5.48 (109.6 bb)
UTG: $5.00 (100 bb)
CO: $5.07 (101.4 bb) 18/17 f3B100/2 AF 0.5 66h
Hero (BTN): $5.37 (107.4 bb)
SB posts $0.02, BB posts $0.05Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A♣ J♠
fold, CO raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30Flop: ($0.97, 2 players) A♠ 7♣ 6♠
CO checks, Hero bets $0.47, CO calls $0.47Turn: ($1.91, 2 players) 8♥
CO checks, Hero checksRiver: ($1.91, 2 players) A♥
CO bets $1.26, Hero foldsOpens 9% from CO!
I though about 25 OTT very very thin, because he is so nitty!
Most prob AQ or AK, could be FH.
If you put your villain on AQ or AK only at these spots, why would you ever call with AJ then? Even worse, why 3bet him preflop? If you have reads over large sample he is only opening AQ/AK/JJ+ then why you ever 3bet him pre with AJ?
66 hands is quite irrelevant sample for position specific RFI range. Pretty much same for AF. There has been like max 10 postflop spots for villain. Point is there has been around 13 times villain has been on CO and how often has he got chance to open raise? Let's say 10 times. Well it's fairly common to be simply card dead for most of those times.
That sample can be used for rough opponent profiling and 18/17 would indicate toward tag type opponent.
We are very close to absolute top of our range after turn check so looks like dangerous fold. Would not be surprised if we beat portion of villain value range as well. Js not best to have though.
For luck Vs skill part of poker. Well there are lot of components we cannot measure but all-in EV is one of fairly well measurable ones. Especially in holdem as there are less spots where all-in is just tiny amount of pot. It sure suck if running bad over big sample.
Probably everyone here know about pokerdope variance simulator. If you simulate e.g. 8% ROI over 100k hands and 100 standard deviation there is still minor chance of being down in that sample. Also if you are one up only 20bin or one up 150bin it's very easy to answer differently to this luck Vs skill question.
Bigger the edge less likely one end up losing over decent sample but there is still variance in play. If EV is more like less than 5 BB/100 then it's wild ride most likely.
I have run over 1000 bin below EV in sng side during one year. Total is likely above that over years. Sure suck as it was almost same amount of money I made that year from poker. Still made decent living. So luckily there was enough space to not run hot but still make profit.
If playing huge field MTT luck has big impact imo even on yearly profit. One big hit can change it completely. But then again if playing small fields with less than 200 players variance is considerably smaller.
Originally posted by greatpk
If you put your villain on AQ or AK only at these spots, why would you ever call with AJ then? Even worse, why 3bet him preflop? If you have reads over large sample he is only opening AQ/AK/JJ+ then why you ever 3bet him pre with AJ?
I am not calling anywhere! Pre is 3b bluff and OTF is thin value vs such nit!
With AJ I dont ever expect if I raise to be called by worst, that means the raise is going to be turning top3 into a bluff! This is why I cd 3 str for pot control and it was totally min lost!
Originally posted by vengeance77
Originally posted by greatpk
If you put your villain on AQ or AK only at these spots, why would you ever call with AJ then? Even worse, why 3bet him preflop? If you have reads over large sample he is only opening AQ/AK/JJ+ then why you ever 3bet him pre with AJ?I am not calling anywhere! Pre is 3b bluff and OTF is thin value vs such nit!
With AJ I dont ever expect if I raise to be called by worst, that means the raise is going to be turning top3 into a bluff! This is why I cd 3 str for pot control and it was totally min lost!
Okay so hands that beat you that could be in nits range are AK AQ 77s/88s/66s. I think he can have A10s/KK/QQ/JJ/1010s/99s that could and should value bet the river here after you played pretty passively here. I think folding here is a -EV and assuming your opponent is a pure Nit could be very incorrect assumption over 66 hands as its a very small sample size.
ghaleon
I know pretty good the theory! There is not exact definition of what long run means to equalize EV and Brute wins, because the rake isn't calculated as well! It can be 100 000 0000 hands can you play so much in a life time? And you cannot put the other variables like win rate, to calculate variance!
The poker is gambling! Isn't it? And as such it requires luck in order to win in every term! It is so simple! It requires and skills as well, but the luck is the king in every term and if it wasn't not only 5% of the players will win significant amounts enough for living, but if you are in top 40% of the players pool you will print money!
Simply the human brain automatically assumes, that you are winning, because you are good, but the reality is that you can be the best player in the world , but you cannot be winning without luck in every term of time and volume!
Those 5% pros aren't the b est 5% of all players! They are the most luckiest 5%!
The poker is gambling remember not chess or some competitive physical or intelligent sport requires only skills in order to win!
If you ever was champion in some of those you will know that!
Besides most of the poker players are having from low to average IQ and pretty rarely more than average! Very rarely having even a high school! It is a fact!
Facts, facts, facts!
Originally posted by vengeance77
ghaleonI know pretty good the theory! There is not exact definition of what long run means to equalize EV and Brute wins, because the rake isn't calculated as well! It can be 100 000 0000 hands can you play so much in a life time? And you cannot put the other variables like win rate, to calculate variance!
The poker is gambling! Isn't it? And as such it requires luck in order to win in every term! It is so simple! It requires and skills as well, but the luck is the king in every term and if it wasn't not only 5% of the players will win significant amounts enough for living, but if you are in top 40% of the players pool you will print money!
Simply the human brain automatically assumes, that you are winning, because you are good, but the reality is that you can be the best player in the world , but you cannot be winning without luck in every term of time and volume!
Those 5% pros aren't the b est 5% of all players! They are the most luckiest 5%!The poker is gambling remember not chess or some competitive physical or intelligent sport requires only skills in order to win!
If you ever was champion in some of those you will know that!
Besides most of the poker players are having from low to average IQ and pretty rarely more than average! Very rarely having even a high school! It is a fact!Facts, facts, facts!
According to you sports like Ice Hockey, Football, Soccer, Basketball are all luck as well. Skills are important but at the end of the day the luck is the king there right? Cause without luck you could hit the post when trying to score a goal in ice hockey right? Without luck you could miss wide empty net in soccer as well right? Every single major sport has a luck factor in it as well, of course not as huge as in poker, but still it's a factor. Yet each year the very best athletes are on top of their leaderboards. Not because they are just lucky, but because they are super hard working people and talented enough to be the best out of the best! It's similar with poker, yes you can have a miracle run at WSOP main event and finish first place and never ever again win a single tournament in your life, but that's not my point here. People that are skilled enough and have the proper mindset, are winning players from year to year all most. You don't have to be the absolute best player in the world, you just have to be slightly better than your competition at the table to be a winning player long term. Of course if you measure luck factor over a course of 2000/3000/4000 hands like you do, well then yeah, poker seems like a gambling thing. But if you measure like 200k/300k/400k hands, then all of a sudden you can see that luck doesn't affect it that much anymore.
Of course you can believe what ever you want to believe, but if we speak about facts, then most of loosing players will blame it on being unlucky, while in reality they have major leaks where they are spewing money and they are destined to be loosing players with that play style. It's way easier to blame it on luck, cause then you don't have to admit your self you aren't as good as you think you are and you need to actually put in a lot of effort to change that. It's always easier to say I'm better than all of em, but I'm unlucky (that's rarely the case of large sample).
Neither of the sports you mentioned isn't Gambling and they are recognized as skill based/the luck has such small impact, that cannot change the final result! So your comment is totally pointless with 0 value!
Sport and Gambling are 2 absolutely different things! This is why the poker can never be a sport, because the skills are not enough to determine the final result!
Professional poker player = Professional Gambler which in order to win requires luck, ability to cheat and basic understanding of the game! Assuming you cannot cheat online, so what is left? LUCK!
Originally posted by ghaleon
66 hands is quite irrelevant sample for position specific RFI range. Pretty much same for AF. There has been like max 10 postflop spots for villain. Point is there has been around 13 times villain has been on CO and how often has he got chance to open raise? Let's say 10 times. Well it's fairly common to be simply card dead for most of those times.That sample can be used for rough opponent profiling and 18/17 would indicate toward tag type opponent.
We are very close to absolute top of our range after turn check so looks like dangerous fold. Would not be surprised if we beat portion of villain value range as well. Js not best to have though.
@Vengeance - Do you agree with ghaleon about AJ hand?