Slowplay with set

If he never triple barrels I think it makes the decision all the more better to raise the turn, raising turn should be mandatory I believe if we dont raise the flop

I'm guessing it is because, the board has so many of villain's hands crushed, that he can rarely call a river bet, but he could bluff at it. That is to say, rare as it might be, the solver would triple-barrel more than call.

If opponent is a reg, I assume that you have 100+ hands vs that player.
If so, you would have aggression stats, and I would play passively against such an aggressive player

Against passive players, I would never slowplay because almost no matter what you bet, they call.
Also your hand is extremely well disguised since you merely flatted QQ in the BB

That is one dry, locked down flop. I think calling is ok, but 100% raise the turn! You have a hand that wants to play for stacks, don't slowplay. Rule 101😂

It's to bad you didn't give any info about the villain in this hand.

I would always check to the aggressor. Offcourse the river could be a scare card for villain, but it's not to likely you play a backdoor flush or 75 like this.

Cheers
SDK1987

Problem in donk betting river is that hands that give action are mainly going to triple barrel anyway. Plus you will block potential bluffs. Though in this spot it would probably only be some AK with flush blocker in reality. I think river SPR is around 0.75 or so which means I would shove if donk betting which I would never do anyway. Its either x-r river or x-r turn that make sense. Mostly I would pick x-c turn approach in this spot in such locked down situation.

Originally posted by Deine

Pokersolver suggest as the best move here to check/raise, but i really dont understand why you should play so passively when you know that a REG rarely makes triple barrel.

any thoughts ?

Pokersolver doesn't know all that much about how NL25 regs play...

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At these stakes I'm am almost certain that the general population don't river bet for marginal value enough: Likely most regs don't bluff enough, but they do over-call, or over-fold.

Pokersolver doesn't know this.

Too be honest I don't mind your line.

It is close though: At a table with action I would be tempted to lead a tiny river bet here, with the hope that the hands they may have bet themselves they will raise for value whilst still give them a chance to bluff if they view your bet as scared, but my get a few chips out of the stuff that not sure they like. Also there is an argument for over-betting, if the SPR was just a little shorter donk shoving would be the way to go. Half pot can fit in with general strategies more easily though, but actually as for this hand, if they can call half can't they call more? Hmmm.... Check raising probably is best. It's just so difficult to get value unless this hand is a cooler.

But then again solvers do assume different game than the reality of small stakes, so the answer it, it does all depend.

If SPR was slightly smaller donk shoving optimal.