[Closed] [coaching-feedback] NL SSS Gold with xarry2 - wednesdays at 7pm CET

Adv SSS Coaching - 07/08

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)       
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$348,00:///////;MP2$935,85:///////;[/tg]
5,00/10,00 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q♥, A♠
3 folds, MP2 raises to $30,00, Hero raises to $122,00, 4 folds, MP2 calls $92,00.

Flop: ($259,00) 9♥, 3♥, 3♠ (2 players)
MP2 bets $256,00, Hero calls $226,00.

Turn: ($741,00) J♥
River: ($741,00) 5♦

Final Pot: $741,00

MP2 is jensen1740. his stats:
VPIP 48, PFR 18, fold vs 3bet 18% (51 cases), call vs 3bet 75%, 4bet vs 3bet 8%. Donkbet 16%. WTS 28%, total Hands 1.6k

At the end of last coaching it came to this interesting since difficult hand. Even though I recently doubled up on this table I still like to 3bet/push AQ vs this player. He is just way too loose, so I will get a payout from many other weaker hands than my AQ. Maybe you already noticed: I 3bet pretty big. The reason is: he calls in 75% to a 3bet. Thus I really want him to pay an expensive price with all his suited connectors or pockets ect. The more money he invests preflop with the worse hand the bigger my profit will be. In addition this makes postflop play easier to me. The pot will be bigger and I can go broke on most flops then. E.g., if I just raised to 90$ here, I could find an easy fold on this flop. even though I think I can still have the best hand sometimes.
Well, let's first discuss the pot odds/break even equity I get on the flop and then conclude to a possible range for MP2. The pot is 256$ (3$ rake discounted) and effectively he bets 226$ which is my remaining stack. The pot odds are therefore 482$:226$ = 2.13:1 and thus my breakeven equity is 31.92%. Now we have to evaluate MP2s range. Just by looking at the preflop action we can assume he won't have AK or JJ+. Even though he's not such an aggressive 4better I'm sure he pushes these hands preflop vs. a shortstack. Probably we can even exclude TT and AQ from his range. What else can we say about his range by just looking at the action? Well, he donkbets into us on 933 with a flushdraw. Why? Imo since he does not want us to bet. So he has a hand which does not like to play c/c or which better uses the foldequity with a donkbet. This could be pockets, flushdraws, 9x type hands and even overcards. On the other hand I don't assume he donkbets 99 or 33. maybe a 3x type hand.
Let's just determine our equity against the different hand groups he can be pushing here. The hand I chose are respectively standing for the whole hand groups. Its just about to get an overview how we run against those different groups.:

vs pockets: 22,44-88,TT: we have 29.2% equity
vs 9x Hands: A9s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,97s+,A9o,T9o: we have 23.5% equity
vs Flushdraws: AhJh,AhTh,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah2h,KhJh,KhTh,JhTh,Th8h: we have 50.1% equity
vs Overcards: AQo-ATo,A5o-A4o,KQo,QJo,JTo: we have 76.5%
vs 3x Hands: A3s,43s,A3o: we have 3.3% equity

I think these groups should be representing MP2s range quite well. Now we have to weigh how often every single group is party of his range. Let's try 2 alternative compositions:

pockets 45%
9x Hands 25%
Flushdraws 15%
Overcards: 10%
3x Hands: 5%

=> Our overall equity: 0.45*0.292 + 0.25*0.235 + 0.15*0.501 + 0.1*0.765 + 0.05*0.033 = 34.35%

pockets 35%
9x Hands 20%
Flushdraws 22.5%
Overcards: 17.5%
3x Hands: 5%

=> Our overall equity: 0.35*0.292 + 0.20*0.235 + 0.225*0.501 + 0.175*0.765 + 0.05*0.033 = 39.75%

Composition 1 would be rather tight for this opponent. I think thats a tight one for him. As you can see we already make profit with this range. Since MP2 seems to be very freaky however we could even assume a looser range like the second one.
Well, it is definetely a risky call. But if we are in front in average we should take it. If you face such players at your tables: observe them very accurately. Every little tell can give you the crucial information in a close spot like this!

regards,
xarry

dear Xarry, fisrt of all thanks for the amazing reviews. I have a question regarding your review from 05/13. I wonder which "check /raise flop" ranges could be seen as normal/tight/aggressive ?
Would you consider anything from 15% as aggressive?

Hi EvaPoker!

my own checkraise flop% is 7%. I could maybe checkraise a bit more but imo anything more than 10% should be considered as aggressive. anything below 5% as passive.

Regards,
xarry

Adv SSS Coaching - 07/15

1,00/2,00 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6♦, 6♣
5 folds, BU raises to $6,00, SB folds, Hero raises to $33,15 (All-In), BU calls $27,15.

Flop: ($67,30) Q♣, 4♣, 3♣
Turn: ($67,30) 9♥
River: ($67,30) J♥

Final Pot: $67,30

At the end of yesterdays coaching I was asked about the things I consider when it comes to restealing. Thus I'll take the above hand and the EV calculator from my chart collection in oder to illustrate the different influences.

ATS:

First of all this is the most important value telling us something about the size of the stealers range. In this case it was 27% on the BU. I chose this one: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo. We have 53.6% equity against this range. The Pot we can win consists our of the effective stack of 33.15$ + the blinds with 3$. Considering rake of 3$ as well the total potsize is 33.15$ again. We can however only loose 31.15$ since the BB is already paid.
Our EV = 0.536*33.15$ - 0.464*31.15$ = 3.31$
With a lower ATS of like 24% we are breakeven.

Foldequity:

Let's stick to the intial 27% ATS. Of course most opponents won't call 100% of their stealing range to our resteal as assumed above. Thus we have to discount some weak hands from the initial stealing range in order to conclude to the calling range.

1) 20% FE (equals 27.6%*0.8 = 22.1 callingrange):
22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A3o+,KQo, we have 53.3% equity

2) 30% FE (equals 27.6%*0.7 = 19.3 callingrange):
33+,A2s+,KQs,A4o+,KQo, we have 52.1% equity

3) 40% FE (equals 27.6%*0.6 = 16.6 callingrange):
55+,A2s+,KQs,A5o+, we have 49.3% equity

4) 50% FE (equals 27.6%*0.5 = 13.8 callingrange):
55+,A2s+,A8o+, we have 46.7% equity

I won't go further here since the foldequity is generally lower in steal situations. players don't give each other much respect for a raise. If BU folds we can now win 9$.

Our EV is changing:

1) EV = 0.2*9$ + 0.8[0.533*33.15 - 0.467*31.15] = 4.3$

2) EV = 4.35$

3) EV = 3.93$

4) EV = 3.94$

You see that 66 is a nice hand to resteal with. The reason is it keeps his good remaining euqity in case it gets called even vs. tighter calling ranges. Thus pocket pairs are very decent hands to resteal with if you have foldequity.
How much foldequity depends on your opponent and the individual situation. One indicator can be the fold to 3bet% (if possible the % for the BU in this case). However you have to include that bigstacks call shortstack reraises much looser than bigstack reraises. Against us they just face one small all-in. However if a bigstack 3bets he still has like 85% of his stack left and can apply immense pressure with postflop bets in a big pot.
It is also important to consider your current table image and history between you and the stealer. If you haven't been raising 2 orbits in a row and constantly folded to steals before your image is tight and you could throw in a resteal which needs much foldequity to be profitable. However if you once restealed with QJs vs a CO steal from your opponent he will usually remember this and won't give you much credit for your resteals any longer. Thus your foldequity may be way lower than the stats my say! Never just take a stat as granted. There are always deviations from the average values and thus you have to modify the stats you get with additional information from the current game situation.

Thus the most important factors for a resteal are: ATS, foldequity, remaining equity, reads, table image, history

I can just recommend to try and calculate your restealing hands with the EV calculators. You will quickly get a feeling for the EV in those spots then. This will save you much thoughts in a critical spot and will eventually lead to correct decisions.

regards,
xarry

Hello xarry,
It's a really interesting and useful blog. I've got a question for You concerning statistics. How old stats do you use while playing SSS? I was thinking that showing two-months old stats would be a good solution. The limit I'm interested in is NL100.

Sorry for bad english and good luck ♦

Re: Adv SSS Coaching - 23/07 (post 24.07.08)

I'm probably being dim, but in the calculations to determine if you have needed FE on the 8 9 hand, you say that remaining stack for the all in is $33.

But if we start with $40, bet $7 pre-flop and another $8 on the flop, we have only $25 remaining, don't we?

Maybe I have misunderstood?

Thanks,
Tim

p.s. sorry this question is a year late

sorry for answering a bit later. I was there:

if you like electro/techno or whatever this is the perfect festival for you.

@MrMojito100:

thx! well, I honestly use stats up to 180 days. since I don't datamine constantly I wouldn't have enough hands with a shorter period. That's probably the longest reasonable lenght. If you datamine enough having just like 2 months will give you enough hands for a proper evaluation of your opponents even in special spots. but imo you can definetely take 3 months. usually the variance of the playing style isn't that big within this period of time.

@Tim64:

thx! you're not dim; and not to late I was wrong... big thanks for the remark! there are always faults... but with careful readers like you we can fix them

Regards,
xarry

Thx xarry,
I've got another guestion if You don't mind. Do you always rebuy to 20 BB? Because I've heard many opinions about it, some coaches rebuy to 20 when they fall under 15, some always play with maximum 20 BB, some rebuy to 16-18 BB. I know it may depend on the limit also.
Unfortunately I won't be able to participate in Your coachings in the following weeks, so I'm asking here ♦

Hi Xarry,

I'm studying your coaching thread from the top and I came accross one exercise you left for the students on the 2nd page of the thread, 30/07 coaching.

"I would like you to take a look at this hand. Determine the pot odds we get for an all-in (treat the BU coldcall as deadmoney) and the range of SB. (PS.de TAG having an aggressive history with me). Then decide wether to push or not. I will post my analysis next week."

You left it unsolved though, it seems. Could you give us your solution? =D

And by the way, thanks a lot for the dedication you put into this, your thread and your coachings are VERY instructive.

- dandycal

@MrMojito100:

I prefer to rebuy when I fall down to 12BB or so. usually I rebuy to like 16-18BB. wether to rebuy or not mainly depends on your opponents. if they give you a payout with 20BB often and call you too loose then there is not a real reason for blinding down. if the fold to much to your raises/reraises then blinding down will give them better pot odds so they will have to call you more. if you search this thread you will also find 2 or 3 posts dealing with this topic.

Regards,
xarry

@dandycal:

I updated the post! I hope you're content with the answer I gave. The hand is imo a rahter easy call. my inital intention was just to motivate people to think about pot odds ect. with an easy hand. well... nobody did. except you
btw, you will find many other similar spots in this thread - where my analysis goes more into detail!

regards,
xarry

Adv SSS Coaching - 07/22

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)    
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$80,00:///////;BU$414,20:///////;[/tg]
2,00/4,00 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♣, T♥
3 folds, BU raises to $12,00, SB folds, Hero calls $8,00.

Flop: ($26,00) 6♥, 4♣, A♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $16,00, Hero raises to $40,00, BU folds.

Final Pot: $82,00

my opponent (TAG regular) has a 44% ATS on the BU. Flop cbet 90%.
If you face such aggressive stealers defending your blinds aggressively as well will give you a big profit. Well, we can not only resteal. Especially against opponents who steal much defending with a call is also a possible option. Its best if the stealraisesize is between 2-3BB. With a 4BB raise calling gets expensive and in order to make profit you have to win more pots after the flop. In this spot however the pot odds we get are fine. We get 18:8 = 2.25:1. Thus, we at least have to win 18$ in 30.8% of all postflop games in order to be breakeven. With a starting flop potsize of ~24$ we already make a good winning if we win the pot in 30%. QTo has ~46% against BU openraising range. Thats more than enough to make a profit. And: we still can win the pot unimproved with a bluff sometimes.
you don't need to do this but a play like this will increase your winnings in blind defends. Why did I bluff here? Well, first of all BU has a wide range. Therefore checkraising the flop gets pretty interesting for us. Especially with a hand like ours (our hand shouldn't be dominated by the stealers range and it should have good potential to hit draws/madehands) we will hit a nice flop for a checkraise very often. Thus I would probably checkraise every hit or 8 outs+ draw. Always depending on your opponent you can get looser or tighter of course. So, in this spot we have nothing. Why do we checkraise then? MY point is the following: on a A-hi board our opponent - especially since he cbets in 90% - will cbet almost 100% of his range. Especially all his trash. But against a checkraise he will have a hard time calling with anything else than Ax or sets, and flushdraws. In addition my small raise looks like I already commited myself to the pot. Now it is pretty unlikely that our opponent shoves with anything else than a good hit/draw. However, the small raisesize makes it cheap for us to bluff. In this hand we only need ~50% foldequity (with rake of 2$) to make profit. Now let's check BUs range and what he can call me with:

44%: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K8o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o

What does he call/shove?
TT+,66,44,A2s+,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,K7s,Kh6h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh7h,JhTh,Jh9h,Jh8h,Jh7h,Th9h,Th8h,Th7h,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,7h6h,75s,65s,64s,A2o+

=> this is 20.8% and our EV with 2$ rake therefore is: 23.2/44*40$ - 20.8/44*40$ = 2.18$

It is a small winning but applied in the right spots you will make this profit in average. If you alter the board and maybe remove the flushdraw then your opponent will have to call you even tighter. Now the callingrange would probably be: TT+,66,44,A2s+,K6s,Q6s,96s,86s,75s+,65s,A2o+, Thats only 19.8% callingrange and our EV is then: 24.2/44*40$ - 19.8/44*40$ = 4$
And it is still arguable if your opponent really calls with any 6x hand. Also calling with TT-KK will get quite ugly for BU since he can't put us on many weaker hands then.
If BU pushs I will fold my hand. We are pretty dead against his range. And most important is of course your image! This move will only work if applied selectively and when your image/history is clean!

Regards,
xarry

Adv SSS Coaching - 07/29

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)      
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$235,00:///////;SB$214,55:///////;[/tg]
5,00/10,00 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BU with 4♦, A♦
5 folds, Hero raises to $30,00, SB raises to $214,55 (All-In), 2 folds.

Final Pot: $254,55

Important stats:

SB: SSS reg, VPIP 12, PFR 11, fold BB to steal 76%, 3bet vs steal 14%, call vs steal 10%, 3bet vs open from BU 24%

BB: LAG fish, VPIP 35, PFR 14, fold BB to steal 42%

my BU ATS 38%

First of all in situations like this you need to calculate the pot odds and decide wether to push or not. the total pot is 254.55$, -3$ rake 251.55$. I have to call 184.55$. thus the pot odds are 251.55:184.55 = 1.36:1 and thus the breakeven equity is 1/(1.36+1) = 42.3%. If you use the pot odds equity calculator from my chart collection you will also get this value, but a bit faster
this means: I should call the resteal if I think my hand has more than 42.3% equity against SB pushing range here. Now we have to determine ranges for him. I will do this in different ways:

1) Which hands will he resteal according to my ATS?

38% is ~22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q7s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,A2o+,K8o+,Q8o+,J9o+,T9o
Now I first determine which hands have 50% equity+ against this range.
This is 55+,A5s+,A8o+,KTs+,KQo. A4s has 37.4% equity against this range. Thus we should fold.

2) Taking 24% since his 3bet vs BU is 24%
24% is ~22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KJo+ and A4s has 42.6%. We would have a very marginal call here. Alternatively if you dont have the 3bet vs BU stat you should take the 3bet vs steal% and since this is an average from 3bet vs CO,BU and SB modify it accordingly. As a rough estimation would say the 3bet vs CO is ~0.7-0.8*3bet vs steal Total, 3bet vs BU is ~1-1.5* 3bet vs steal total and the 3bet vs SB is a bit smaller again since many opponents defend more with calls than with 3bets if they are IP. How much those values vary depends on your opponent. 1.5*14 would be 21% so the estimation is not that bad.

3) Considering Villains position and the players left to act

Well, this can be more difficult. BB is a LAG fish. What does this mean? SB will call pretty tight due to the risk of a squeeze from BB. Thus he will probably defend in this spot with 95%+ 3bets.
Another point you can make is the following: SB sees I'm stealing against a LAG Fish in the BB. If he thinks more about this he should come to the conclusion that I will probably steal tighter than the average 38%. Simply because BB is too loose. What can we conclude out of this? I would say two things: SB restealing range will contain hands like suited broadways (which are often nice for a call here if the BB is tight and passive) since he has to fear the BB and can't defend passively here. btw, if BB squeezes really aggressive and SB is a tricky and skillful player then you could also state: he will throw in some traps with AA or AK ect. in order to induce a squeeze. But thats pretty advanced though. The second conclusion is that SB will probably resteal tighter than 24%. How much depends on the individual opponent and the history/image we have. Maybe the range is something like this then: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,A8o+,KQo (16.7%) and A4s has 38.8% and we should fold then.

4) Considering our image and the history with villain

I wasn't pretty active on this table before. This speeks for a normal 3betting range of SB. But I have one interesting note on villain: he 3bets from the BB with T9s vs a CO steal. This indicates that SB is capable of making semibluff resteals. i.e. a resteal with a hand which does not have 50%+ equity but one which remains a good equity against the callingrange of the stealer. Thus the profit from such a resteal comes through fold equity. However due to the loose BB I assume SB won't make too many moves like this spot. Nevertheless we can include some of these hands into his restealrange. Now a range of all 50%+ hands + hands based on the remaining equity. But before we conclude to the range we'll quickly calculate how much remaining equity SBs semibluff hands need in oder to make profit. We'll use the calculators from my chart collection.

From the point of view of SB:
Pot: 45$
eff. stack: 214.55$
deadmoney: 10$-3$ rake = 7$
Equity: ??? to be solved for EV=0!
Foldequity: I take my initial range of 38%, what will I call? thats a very dynamic factor. in average I will probably call with ~45-55% of this range. depending on the situation more or less. lets assume I call with 50%, thus 19% ~22+,A2s+,KJs+,A5o+,KQo and SB has 50% fold equity.
Blind/Bet: 5$ for the SB villain had to pay preflop.

The result is that villain will have a +EV resteal under the assumed circumstances with all hands that have 38.2% equity against my calling range. These are: 22+,A3s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,A7o+,KJo+,QTo+,JTo
Against this range A4s has 44.9% equity and we should call.

What is the conclsion? call of fold???

1) 37.4% equity, and 3) 38.8% speak for folding. 2) 42.6% and 4) 44.9% speak for calling. And in fact the decision is pretty close 50:50. Nevertheless we should evaluate the different results again:

1) imo a very basic way of determining the resteal range. but pretty often it is quite realistic. what's missing here: modifications accodring to image/history, the aggressive BB and semibluffresteals

2) already more accurate than 1) but again its an unmodified stat.

3) I like this one pretty much. and its a way which you can quickly use while playing. however does not consider semibluffresteals.

4) thats a detailed analysis which you can only make while your not playing. but the result is usually very realistic. of course depending on the parameters you choose.

=> my preferred way is a combination out of 2), 3) and 4). taking the 24% 3bet vs BU steal, modifying it to ~16-18%, and taking this range while playing. after playing I calculate the spot again according to 4) but to be most accurate with modifications:
- assuming different foldequitys, e.g. 40%, 50%, 60% and test the results
- assuming a modified openraising range: not 38% but 25-30% due to the aggressive BB
- exclude some of the semibluffresteal hands from SBs restealing ranges due to the aggressive BB and my tighter stealing range

Applied for the given range from 4) 22+,A3s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,A7o+,KJo+,QTo+,JTo we should tighten it up to ~22+,A4s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A7o+,KJo+,QJo and A4s now has 41.6% equity.

After writing this all I'm pretty sure I made a correct fold in this spot. Even against a very loose and speculative restealing range from the unmodified 4) we just have 44.9% equity. thats only 2.6% edge. Our EV would be: 11.3$, seems to be much but 1.3BB as a rather optimal EV isn't that good imo. especially if further modified calculations give us a -EV spot I don't see a reason in calling here.
With a different BB however I would probably call. Since then a loose restealing range is much more likely.

Regards,
xarry

How do I calculate Fold equity? I allways wondered this

Hi Heffron89!

well, fold equity is the chance that your opponent folds. I would state its almost never possible to calcualte it like for example the equity of AQ vs TT. But you can estimate it. You have to estimate the total range - all hands your opponent holds in a certain spot - and also estimate how much of these hands he calls versus a bet/raise ect.

Example: (just theoretical :))

Villain, TAG, pretty straightforward, limps 5% in UTG, we raise him with AQ on the BU and face a flop of K4T rainbow heads up. What is UTGs range? in such a case it is usually not the top 7% since players usually raise the strong hands in UTG. for simplification I assume he limps low pockets and some suited connectors. you now have to take the euqilator and add hands to a range of ~5%. with the assumptions we made this is something like 99-22,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s (equals 5.1% of all hands).
Now we cbet and assume villain checkraises us with any hit/good draw, but folds unimproved pocket pairs and trash.
which hands did hit the board? 44,QJs, JTs, T9s. this is 1.4% so he calls 1.4 out of 5.1% and thats 27.45% thus the foldequity is 72.55%.
as you can see this depends on every individual situation. only if you practice this in your theoretical studies you will get a feeling for the estimation of foldequity while playing.

Best regards,
xarry

you give him a pretty wide resteal range, I wonder how much your fold to 3bet im BU is?

hi evapoker: well, if the stats already indicate he's 3betting 24% vs button I have to take this into account. and don't forget, the maximum range I gave him was in case 4) with 24.6%. my conclusion was further, that he'll be restealing tighter in this spot probably.
my fold to 3bet on the BU will probably be something like 65%-68%.

regards,
xarry

dear Xarry, today you 3beted AJ in mp. And there is a discussion in german board how your equity changes if there are people behind you.
however I wonder if the formula provided is correct. Imo it shold be something like this: (the propability someone wakes up with JJ+, AK is 1-(0.968)^Players left.

EV = Fold * WinningsFold + (1 - Fold) * [(Monster% * Our EQ * WinningsSD - His EQ * Loss) + (1-Monster% * Our EQ * WinningsSD - His EQ * Loss)]

does it make sense? are you familiar with such calculations?

Originally posted by EvaPoker
dear Xarry, today you 3beted AJ in mp. And there is a discussion in german board how your equity changes if there are people behind you.
however I wonder if the formula provided is correct. Imo it shold be something like this: (the propability someone wakes up with JJ+, AK is 1-(0.968)^Players left.

EV = Fold * WinningsFold + (1 - Fold) * [(Monster% * Our EQ * WinningsSD - His EQ * Loss) + (1-Monster% * Our EQ * WinningsSD - His EQ * Loss)]

does it makes sense? are you familiar with such calculation?

Hi EvaPoker,

I did these kind of calculations myself the following way:

For simplification I assume we push preflop and have n players behind us, who all have us covered and all call our push with the same range mrange%.

Strictly speaking this mrange% depends on our holding, e.g. AK is more likely if we hold TT than if we hold KQ.

Our holding, e.g. AJs, has a equity of mEQ against this range.

You can calculate the mrange% and mEQ for example with the HandRangeTool that comes with HM.

The probabilty that noone behind us calls our push (the foldequity we have against players behind us) is estimated by
FE2 = (1-mrange%)^n.

Our EV of the Push if we had noone acting behind us is EV1. xarry2 is demonstrating how to calculate that one very often ;).

If we have a stack of size s and we win a pot of size ps when we get called by someone behind us, then we could estimate our EV as:

EV2 = FE2*EV1 + (1-FE2)*(mEQ*ps - s)

This is still an estimation because I don't take into account how our equity changes if our initial opponent and someone behind us both hold a monster.
(Some hands tend to do better then others in these situations: For example try winning two separate battles against a monster range and then a single battle against two monster ranges in a 3way pot, both first with a hand like TT and then with a hand like AJs. This might show the effect.)
However the possibility that our initial opponent calls our hand with a monster is included in EV1 anyway, so I guess the result should be pretty accurate.

PS: To fix your (more accurate but also more complicated formula) i would write it like this:

EV = (1 - Monster%) * Fold_Opp1 * WinningsFold +
(1 - Monster%)*(1 - Fold_Opp1) * (OurEQvsOpp1Calling * PotvsOpp1 - OurEffStackVsOpp1)
+ Monster% * Fold_Opp1vsMonster * (OurEQvsMonster * PotvsMonster - OurEffStackVsMonster)
+ Monster% * (1 - Fold_Opp1vsMonster) *(OurEQvsMonsterAndOpp1Overcalling * PotVsMonsterAndOpp1 - OurEffStackVsMonsterAndOpp1)

If you look closely now its almost the same formula as mine (the first two terms are the same as my FE2*EV1), but i neglected the last term where you run against both opponents. Perhaps one shouldn't do this, in some situations it might me non-negligable.

thx gonzo for your answer!
concerning the inital formula it is also correct but maybe has missleading names for the variables. but if you choose monster% = 0 then you end up with the normal EV formula. else the 1-FE part is simply split into 2 parts: the one where we play against the monster% and the one where we only play against the initial raiser. it is to say that the formula is still not absolutely realsitic. but taking into account the monster% is already a very sufficient solution imo.

regards,
xarry