Nut Flush on flop, how to play for most value.

buergerkneifer

Joined: 15.11.2010

Posts: 392

07.12.2021, 22:26 0

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 128.5 BB
SB: 101.3 BB
Hero (BB): 174.9 BB
UTG: 100.5 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 44.3 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ 2♦

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) K♦ Q♦ 8♦
Hero checks, MP bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 13 BB, MP calls 9 BB

Turn: (32.5 BB, 2 players) J♦
Hero checks, MP checks

River: (32.5 BB, 2 players) K♠
Hero bets 15.5 BB, MP calls 15.5 BB

Spoiler

Hero shows A♦ 2♦ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 66%, Turn 77%)
MP shows 8♥ 8♣ (Full House, Eights full of Kings)
(Pre 66%, Flop 34%, Turn 23%)
MP wins 60.6 BB

Hi everyone, I haven't played Poker in quite some time. Started again and thought evaluating hands makes sense again.
So I choose to come back from the dead with my biggest loss this session.

My thought process:
Range I gave MP at the start: 77+,ATs+,KTs+,ATo+,KQo
I called since I was in the BB, Pot Odds with 4:1 > 2:1 odds (even though tbh I thought my odds were worse). Also I like to play this hand OOP.

Flop: I expect him to almost always CBet, since he can hold/bluff AQ, AK or he just wants me out of the pot assuming i don't have any diamonds, or only1 and have to pay to see the turn. I check/raise him, a) for value and b) to might "fake" not wanting to see another card.

Turn: This is where I assume that if I bet and he does not hold a diamond, chances are high he folds. He might call with AK, AQ, AT, or any set. But I already check/raised him, so probably only a set, if even.
But at this point I am certain I almost always win the pot and my chances are better to get more money out of the pot by checking.
Reason for this: He might attempt to (semi)-bluff here or if he does not, I can bet in the river and - in my head - my river bet would seem weaker since I did not bet on the turn. He might still have a lower diamond and is more inclined to call with that in the river.

So in the river, I bet since MP checks and I doubt he is going to bet again with a hand I clearly beat, but think he might calls for equity. Or because this is NL10 and people want to get to the showdown.

Well, he just calls me here, lucky for me. I would definetly call his raise or even 3Bet him, had he betted.

So, does my line of play make sense or do you think it is rubbish and my thought process is too fishy?
Regards: :f_love:

He who say he can and he who say he can't are both usually right

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2 replies

LMcrow

Joined: 15.08.2006

Posts: 152

08.12.2021, 04:12 +1

If i flop the nutflush and i see him cbet bigger then usual, and i x/r over pot and he calls, and on the turn i still have the nuts,
i only hear ding ding ding ding ding in my ear(joke) and i get the money in by a big bet on the turn for example potsize or overbet even 75 % is fine.

And the goal is to get the money in until river.
´
You got unlucky there, but you want to get the money in like always bet there on the turn.
Its an unlucky runout, and your line actually protected you to not go broke there because he was sacared of KQ or KJ.

You lost EV(at the turn) but at the same time you saved your money with an unlucky runout.

For example if he has a set you also deny equity if he folds to a big bet on the turn, its not the worst thing tbh.
And you get probably payed off with worse flushes. Like i dont think in these spots, when he calls big x/r on the flop money is getting in with the nuts. (second nuts you lose to straight flush but thats very unlikly)

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SDK1987

Moderator

Joined: 12.11.2008

Posts: 43,850

08.12.2021, 08:19 +1

After the check/raise on the flop it's tough to get value when the fourth diamond comes on the turn with the nuts. I would still Cbet most of the time on the turn.

It's a little bit result oriented thinking, but if you would Cbet turn you would won the hand for sure. Now on the river you get most likely only action of a full house or you have reads villain can over play weaker flushes.

Cheers,
SDK1987

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