Top Set on monochrome flop

I would Cbet the flop at least half pot on a really wetboard like this for value and protection. Cbetting turn would be my standard play against a unknown with a full house.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte121
With top set and so many qualified on the flop i will bet big. Around 75%. I will keep betting on the turn as well. We are on a big hand and i dont like tricky play in this spot. I prefer to keep building a pot.

As played, how much would you raise on the river?

Flop is multiway and monotone texture is pretty tricky to play, your set is a mid strength hand, i believe your flop sizing is very good.

The turn check is a big mistake in my opinion, villain has around 9,3$ in his stack, your goal is take all his chips ,making simple chunking maths calc basically to shove River pot size, you need to bet turn (9,3-2)/3=2,4$.

As played i would simple raise Jam River. In theory If you have the nuts and cant be beaten the best sizing is going all-in on the long term even If you receive less calls.

i dont know the ranges you utilize EP vs MP so i gave you kind of wide range preflop calling range.

I made a solver sim just to ilustrate the best river sizing in Nash Equilibrium Model. The pot is multiway but the situation is similar on the river so i believe it'll not change a lot.

You can build some kind of heuristic with this concept:
"The least likely i'm beat with a value hand the bigger the sizing i use on the river, this way i increase the EV of my nuts and my bluffs in long term even if i receive less calls on average"

If you bet more OTF you either push the worse hand out of this or get called/raised when villain has you beat. I think is perfect bet OTF. Betting the turn would be better in this spot. Then again that's easy to say when the hand is over and you know all players hole cards. All in all I think this hand was played as good as you can by Vorpal.

Thanks FriskyArt — I find that I always wonder what the opponent had when they bet rivers fairly strongly, but fold to a raise.
If they can bet/fold a nut flush, I'm impressed.

I was really hoping that they had a worse full house, since by Zeebo's Theorem "No player is capable of folding a full house on any betting round, regardless of the size of the bet"

but all I got was a fold...

Originally posted by VorpalF2F

Zeebo's Theorem "No player is capable of folding a full house on any betting round, regardless of the size of the bet"

Never heard of this before but it sure makes perfect sence. Thanks for sharing I'll look into this one later on.

Originally posted by FriskyArt

Originally posted by VorpalF2F

Zeebo's Theorem "No player is capable of folding a full house on any betting round, regardless of the size of the bet"

Never heard of this before but it sure makes perfect sence. Thanks for sharing I'll look into this one later on.

The linked post contains a bunch of poker "theorems" that although they are rather old, still make sense — even in the GTO world