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Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by Tim64
Two bluffcatch spots - one consumated, the other not . Same villain. Never show your bluffs - it makes people click call in subsequent hands, even when they shouldn't:

One of the best things about bluffing is getting caught, then later getting paid off when you have the goods.
When someone shows bluff, I generally assume that the next time they raise a river they're not bluffing -- maybe even the next few times.

One of the more satisfying moments in poker is having someone show bluff, then shove a decent hand into me when I have decenter :coolface:


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

October Monthly Update

Monthly profit: -$928.33
Playing hourly: -$17.30 (53 hours).

A tough month where I couldn't recover from a bad start at NL200, losing 8~ BI. NL100 started well but then hit a sustained period of b/e and, latterly, slighly losing play. I'm at -.049 EV bb/100 currently.

While I feel slightly discouraged, I'm by no means disconsolate. But there's clearly a lot of work to do!

Monthly $ graph:

Playing hours were down but hands/hour up slightly as I've been playing 6 tables lately. I feel the added tables have helped with some 'attachment' mindset issues since I'm less emotionally invested in each hand. But possibly at the cost of some EV - it's hard to tell. My NL100 stats are still more impressive than NL50, so I think technical improvements have been made.

We've just got back from a wonderful holiday in Croatia where everything was perfect. The sun shone every day. The food was great. No family arguments!:f_drink: A couple of snaps, then back to the grindstone...


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Fixed your image link

Keep on keeping on!

Cheers,
VS


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Brief update:

End of last week felt very down. NL100 EV graph hit career low, running at -0.97bb/100 ev after 75k hands. Friday was a kind of 'reset'. Played some hyper tourneys and some zoom games and watched some pokercode videos.

Had a revelation that there are a number of hands where I get to the river and I know I'm supposed to pull the trigger on a bluff (because I have little sdv/ or I'm at the bottom of my range) but rarely do, because I am either:

1). afraid of looking stupid;
2). afraid of throwing good money after bad; or
c) convinced they'll never fold.

So over the weekend I grinded up through the limits, starting again at nl2, playing 45 mins or so at each limit, deliberately trying to get in spots where I HAVE to bluff (e.g. calling 3bs light or opening too wide). This time the aim was just to bluff more - regardless of whether it's a good bluff itlr. And it seems to have liberated my game. I'm now at nl50 again, this time at zoom. And I'm going to stay here until I've turned my nl50 graph into a winning EV graph.

Basically, I'm stubbon af. I'm not giving in and I'm not giving up.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by Tim64
Had a revelation that there are a number of hands where I get to the river and I know I'm supposed to pull the trigger on a bluff (because I have little sdv/ or I'm at the bottom of my range) but rarely do, because I am either:

1). afraid of looking stupid;
2). afraid of throwing good money after bad; or
c) convinced they'll never fold.

I have rather the opposite problem: I tend to bluff when I shouldn't, and thus get whacked by calling stations hanging on to their pair of 6s on A-high boards

At least I'm not afraid of looking stupid :coolface:


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Fun hand from NL50:

$0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

BTN: $59.93 (119.9 bb)
Hero (SB): $117.74 (235.5 bb)
BB: $62.04 (124.1 bb)
UTG: $59.02 (118 bb)
MP: $130.09 (260.2 bb)
CO: $65.57 (131.1 bb)

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K♠: J♦:
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.50, 2 players) Q♦: 7♦: 4♠:
Hero bets $0.83, BB calls $0.83

Turn: ($4.16, 2 players) 2♠:
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($4.16, 2 players) 5♠:
Hero checks, BB bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75

Results: $9.66 pot ($0.48 rake)
Final Board: Q♦: 7♦: 4♠: 2♠: 5♠:

BB shows T♦: 8♦:: (High Card, Queen)
(Pre 38%, Flop 48%, Turn 32%)

Hero shows K♠: J♦:: (High Card, King)
(Pre 62%, Flop 52%, Turn 68%)

Hero wins $9.18

Everything seems fine until the river.

Now suddenly all things are possible. We can definitely lead as a bluff to try to fold out - mostly - 4x/Ax. We can check with the plan of x/f or we can check with the plan of x/raising. That was my original plan since K high definitely has some SDV, and we'll win reasonably often if it goes x/x.

However, villain - after x/b turn - now chooses a 2/3 pot sizing. It seems on this particular runnout that it's already a bit polarising. I'd expect many Qx to bet turn and to choose a smaller (valuey) sizing on this wet of a river. 7x probably doesn't have a profitable vbet at all. So villain is repping 2p+. Given this, rebluffing could be 'ok' but it seemed to me that the high spade could be used as a bluffcatcher. Vilain shouldn't be doing this with A high.

Solver hates my x/c, ofc. :f_biggrin: Villain played it perfectly but just ran into a station.

Edit: another fun hand.

Obviously preflop is 'bad'. Villain 80% steal.

$0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

BTN: $50.00 (100 bb)
SB: $54.57 (109.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $53.63 (107.3 bb)
UTG: $68.99 (138 bb)
MP: $50.00 (100 bb)
CO: $47.56 (95.1 bb)

SB posts $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 8♦: 9♠:
3 folds, BTN raises to $1.25, fold, Hero raises to $5.00, BTN calls $3.75

Flop: ($10.25, 2 players) 9♥: 3♣: T♠:
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($10.25, 2 players) 3♠:
Hero bets $5.00, BTN raises to $13.13, Hero calls $8.13

River: ($36.51, 2 players) T♦:
Hero checks, BTN bets $31.87 and is all-in, Hero calls $31.87

Results: $100.25 pot ($1.50 rake)
Final Board: 9♥: 3♣: T♠: 3♠: T♦:

BTN shows 4♦: 6♦:: (Two Pair, Tens and Threes)
(Pre 37%, Flop 6%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows 8♦: 9♠:: (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
(Pre 63%, Flop 94%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins $98.00


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Nice to see that they play like that at NL 50
I see a fair bit of bet,check,bluff play at NL 2, but didn't figure it would happen much at higher limits


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Yes, well the turn's a strange card to start bluffing on. I guess when you r/c 46s pre you probably have lots of 3x, but he can't assume I'd know that!


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Originally posted by Tim64

...it seems to have liberated my game. I'm now at nl50 again, this time at zoom. And I'm going to stay here until I've turned my nl50 graph into a winning EV graph.

Boom.

And here's the nl50 graph since the revelation, last weekend, i.e. 13th November:


Last 11k hands (covered by above graph) running at 10.82 EV BB/100

Well obviously I'd be lying if I denied being kind of excited right now. I know I have yet to demonstrate that the same strategy can be employed above NL50, and who knows exactly how fortunate I have been getting in terms of the specific bluffing opportunities that have presented themselves over this small sample, but there's just no way I can see this as a lucky run of cards.

When you change something fundamental about your game and immediately start printing money, Occam's razor forces you to draw (at least tentatively) the conclusion that the two things are linked. And just for the moment let's assume I'm right. Am I p***ed that it took 6 months to come to this realisation? No, not really. The brain works how the brain works. I have no control over when and how the Eureka moment will strike.

BR is now back over $3k. I'm rolled for NL100 and that's the next stop. Let's F-----g Go.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by Tim64
BR is now back over $3k. I'm rolled for NL100 and that's the next stop. Let's F-----g Go.

Well done!


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

November Monthly Update

Monthly profit: +$245
Playing hourly: $3.66 (67 hours).

Month ended disappointingly after the huge boost to morale and BR follwoing the implementation of the plan to bluff more. Needless to say, zoom 100 is swingy AF and if you'd asked me how I felt literally one day earlier (before yesterday's horror) I'd have said "pretty happy."

Nevertheless, I believe that the right balance between SDV and NSV is possible and that's the focus for December.

Monthly $ graph:


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Currently BR hovering around $3.8k so some progress there. I'm trying to clear my 'backlog' of EV losses on various stakes, so currently reg speed NL50 tables. Realise I'm dotting around a bit in terms of aims but the whole 10BI BR shooting up through the stakes until NL500 was pretty arbitrary anyway, so no great calamity.

Had a terrible session couple of days ago where all the old mindset tilt issues surfaced. On the one hand it was depressing to realise such things are not permanently 'fixed'. On the other, it was a measure of progress because it actually took me by suprise... I bounced back the next day and I'm feeling reasonably confident.

Also have some study buddies now which I'm sure will help. Site BR hit a new high point of $4.2k last week so I think $5k is just a matter of time...

-Tim64


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Head Admin
SvenBe
Joined: 19.04.2006

Ah come on, you gonna be another one of these "i join the challenge ... ups I accidentally finished it within a couple of weeks"-type of guy,right?


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Gosh, I wish. Been plugging away since April with only sluggish progress. Still not winning prerakeback...

Thanks for checking in, though :)


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

December Monthly Update

Monthly profit: +$1129.17
Playing hourly: $16.3 (69 hours).

A better month than Nov and Oct. Managed a consistent positive bb/100 winrate at last. Here's the graph in big blinds.

In even more exciting news I've found a group of guys who I can work and study with. They're actually MTT players, but with a very modern approach and I'm hoping this will really help in 2022.

Monthly $ graph:

The strange flat parts are me grinding nl5 zoom to demonstrate I can overcome self control issues and stay the course!

Plan for first part of 2022 is roughly:
1. clear nl50 reg speed EV losses (8bi down)
2. clear nl100 reg speed EV losses (10bi down)
3. hit $5k BR
4. clear nl200 reg speed EV losses (10bi down) and see whether consistent profit at nl200 can be achieved.

-Tim64


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Do you use any form of GTO theory to decide your opening ranges and post-flop play?


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Yes, indeed. Been working with Snowie for a while now. It's a rather blunt instrument but better than nothing.


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Chowchow12
Joined: 04.06.2012

Hey Tim!

I use to get SnG coaching from you in like 2012-2013. Good to see you in the poker streets. Good luck with the grind.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Good to hear from you, sir. How the world turns!


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