AQs vs nitty, bad decision to bluff a J on the river?

When you think villian missed you should check river as well in order to induce a bluff. You have showdown value so no point to bet

It's tough to get value or a better hand to fold on the river. I would just check it down.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Same there - check / fold to river.
Opponent had in 3B call range pairs or AJ. Better would be bet on the flop, if he had AJ he could fold it.

First of all I would never 3bet the nittiest of all nits OOP with just AQs. The value of the hand goes down a great deal and reverse implied odds for hitting an A or Q go up substantially. The only thing I want to do in this spot is call. Hope to bring the BB along as well and spike broadway, three of a kind or a flush and then start betting and raising like crazy.

These guys once in the hand just don't fold very much. They love to go to showdown and will often bring one of the top hands to the showdown so they're hard to bluff. The only time you can even really bluff them is when the board texture gets really wet, like 4567 and 3 of 1 suit for example you will get a ton of folds when you make an overbet there.

Originally posted by MYLFF
First of all I would never 3bet the nittiest of all nits OOP with just AQs. The value of the hand goes down a great deal and reverse implied odds for hitting an A or Q go up substantially. The only thing I want to do in this spot is call. Hope to bring the BB along as well and spike broadway, three of a kind or a flush and then start betting and raising like crazy.

These guys once in the hand just don't fold very much. They love to go to showdown and will often bring one of the top hands to the showdown so they're hard to bluff. The only time you can even really bluff them is when the board texture gets really wet, like 4567 and 3 of 1 suit for example you will get a ton of folds when you make an overbet there.

Good idea, too seldom we get something when we have hand like AQ, KQ, AJ...

Originally posted by aleasy77

Originally posted by MYLFF
First of all I would never 3bet the nittiest of all nits OOP with just AQs. The value of the hand goes down a great deal and reverse implied odds for hitting an A or Q go up substantially. The only thing I want to do in this spot is call. Hope to bring the BB along as well and spike broadway, three of a kind or a flush and then start betting and raising like crazy.

These guys once in the hand just don't fold very much. They love to go to showdown and will often bring one of the top hands to the showdown so they're hard to bluff. The only time you can even really bluff them is when the board texture gets really wet, like 4567 and 3 of 1 suit for example you will get a ton of folds when you make an overbet there.

Good idea, too seldom we get something when we have hand like AQ, KQ, AJ...

There's just a lot of reverse implied odds when they raise preflop with say 12/9 vpip pfr and the board comes A hi. What do they usually have that AJ or AQ is beating if they're jamming 3 huge bets into the pot? Usually a tie at best.

Not sure how reliable villains stats are. We don't know the hand sample size hero has on the villain in this hand.

Originally posted by SDK1987
Not sure how reliable villains stats are. We don't know the hand sample size hero has on the villain in this hand.

Well then what's the point of him providing stats if we don't know if we can use them or not?

If the sample is based on 10 hands or 1k hands makes a huge difference I think.