Originally posted by Mareckiy
It's not December 8 yet tho! 
Anyway I'm gonna ask this as I'd just like to know Dara's thoughts:
Do you have any rules of thumb/heuristics for analyzing big field MTT spots where we are getting somewhat close to the bubble but won't get there yet for a significant amount of time i.e 500 paid, 850 left or 300 paid, 600 left? Do you find multi table HRC results accurate for such scenarios? I'd like to gain more awareness than simple X% field left to the money => add Y% risk premium. How much EV we gain by doubling up vs risking going busto etc.
We cover this a lot in Endgame Poker Strategy, but I think Dara has already done a rough heuristic for big field MTTs, this is what he told Kevin Martin:
This actually stemmed from a question asked by my good pal and favourite poker Twitcher Kevin Martin.
"Dara! Question that you could maybe help me with. Let’s say I was playing 6 online tables. What would be all the info required to get a relatively accurate assessment of the $ value of all my stacks?
I was trying to figure this out but I’m sure you know off the top of your head"
My response:
Assuming there are too many tables to do exact ICM calculation the quickest way to get a ballpark would be to sum the value of all your chip count values. For example, 2x starting in a 109 is worth 2x100=200. Half a starting stack would be 50 etc. Do this for your 6 tables and you’re in the ballpark
This method will be very accurate early on in tourneys but late on near bubble and beyond ICM distorts things. Short stacks will be worth a lot more than their chip value so you might need to add 20-50%. Conversely your very big stacks will be worth the same amount less.
This is a useful skill around bubbles. Work out what your stack will be worth after bubble, what it would be worth if you doubled, and that’ll give you a sense how tight you need to get it in.
When money is already paid out after bubble you have to account for this too. Your stack is now worth roughly the % of chips you have multiplied by remaining prize pool to be played for. For example if there are 20 left, the remaining prizes add to 100k and you have 5% of the chips and everyone is guaranteed 1k, then your stack is worth 5% of 80k (after taking out the 20 everyone is guaranteed) plus the 1k you’re guaranteed. So 5k total.
On a final table these methods will get you close but to be exact it’s an ICM calculation.
