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QQ Squeeze vs 2 callers

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jiffybag
Joined: 21.12.2010

Villain is 30/19 over 61 hands. I don't like my play on the flop, I think I bet way too big. I don't know if 77, 99, JJ or J9 does this or a hand like KJ, AJ that missed.

GG Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (SB): $2.06 (103 bb)
BB: $3.84 (192 bb)
UTG: $2.44 (122 bb)
MP: $2.75 (137.5 bb)
CO: $2.02 (101 bb)
BTN: $2.96 (148 bb)

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Q♣: Q♦:
fold, MP raises to $0.06, fold, BTN calls $0.06, Hero raises to $0.28, fold, MP calls $0.22, BTN calls $0.22

Flop: ($0.86, 3 players) T♣: 8♥: T♠:
Hero bets $0.65, fold, BTN raises to $2.68 and is all-in, Hero?


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6 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Any idea what his aggression levels are?
No shame in folding this, but if opponent had been aggressive prior to this they might do this w/ AK, but in that case, one would expect a 4Bet pre.

Let's see what the experts think


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I like the bet size. Bigger size is fine because of the straight draw. QJ, J9,97,Q9,76 connect, there is plenty of 8x hands as well A8,J8,Q8,98,87. So you want to charge this hands hard

Without information with what type of hands V is taking the initiative i will most likely stack off. We can see a lot here. Baby pockets, JJ, 8x hands, maybe some bluffs


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Xintrea
Joined: 05.12.2022

Such spots are really hard to play vs unknown opponents without any reads, but lets look at what possible range can he have here? He flats MP open and then calls your squeeze after MP flatted as well, so I would assume he doesn't have AA/KK/QQ/AK as such hands would likely 3bet or jam after your squeeze. It could be that the villain does not 3bet/4bet any hand at all, but to assume it we would need information confirming it first. Now we are 3way to the flop and you lead with a cbet nearly 3/4 of the pot size. I really don't like this sizing, as I don't see worse hands calling you off here. Yes you do have range advantage, but you don't have nuts advantage on this flop. When you think of MP/BTN flatting range, they will have a lot of pocket pairs and suited hands, like A10s/K10/J10s/Q10s etc while you only have A10s/K10s and maybe 910s as your squeeze bluffs. You gotta ask your self before making such a big bet on flop what hands are you trying to get paid from? And in this spot it's really only JJ as everything else in their calling/raising range beats your QQs. Instead I would make 1/3 pot size on the flop, as again you have the range advantage here, but never the nuts advantage. So you mainly want to get paid by hands like JJ/99 and some random 98s/J9s/A8s/AQs maybe.
As played, I think you should fold here, unless you have info on villain that he could jam here with A high or 8x or something crazy like that.


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Xintrea
Joined: 05.12.2022

Just run this spot through a solver, and solver suggests to check 100% of the times here. All tho EV difference from checking or betting is very marginal, but if you decide to bet here then correct sizing would be 25% of the pot and fold vs a shove.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Cbet sizing could be smaller like 40c on a dry board like this, but tough to give villain credit for 88 or TX in a 3bet pot. That makes it tough for me to fold against a unknown on NL2.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Xintrea
Joined: 05.12.2022

I don't think is a profitable call vs unknown opponent, as he can have a lot of 10x, also with QQ we block stuff like QJs/Q9s/KQs that our opponent could shove as a bluff. Only bluffs I can find in his range are something like KJs/J9s and maybe some 8x. This is why the solvers suggest to check this flop, or bet 25% of the pot, so we can keep his draws in their calling range and we don't get called/shoved on with only hands that beats us.


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